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According to Man Group boss Luke Ellis, investors should get used to volatility in the markets. Last Tuesday, Ellis predicted inflation will remain high because of strong wage growth in much more volatile markets. He stated, “It will take a lot of years before inflation is put to bed again. We’re in a different paradigm.” He added, “The base effects are running out and we still have very significant wage inflation. It’s not squeezing services [sector] wage inflation, and services is such a big part of the economy. You can’t get consistently to [a] 2 percent [inflation target] when you have 6 to 7 percent wage inflation.” Ellis also said that he did not believe stocks had yet bottomed out. He compared the current environment to the 1970s when the real return from equities after inflation was about zero. His comments come as U.S. stocks fell in February with investors growing concerned that the strength of the economy might require higher interest rates, and the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation rose more than expected in January. In addition, both France and Spain also reported a rise in inflation, beating forecasts.

Finsum:Man Group boss Luke Ellis predicts inflation will remain high due to strong wage growth in volatile markets.

There’s no question that ETFs are a popular way to gain access to the market. They’re low-cost and tax efficient when compared to mutual funds. But, according to a new research paper, ETFs are not the most profitable after taxes are paid. That distinction belongs to large baskets of individual stocks that aren't found in a fund. The paper, which was posted recently by Roni Israelov, the president and chief investment officer of NDVR, and Jason Lu, a research economist in the economic modeling division of the International Monetary Fund, sought to quantify tax-loss harvesting, the strategy of selling losing assets to offset taxable gains that arise when selling winning ones. The paper found that tax-loss harvesting produced the best results when it's used for groups of individual stocks, not ETFs. In a recent interview, Israelov said "You make more money harvesting single stocks across an entire portfolio than you do in an ETF." The paper adds to a growing body of wealth management firms that have been promoting the merits of tax-loss harvesting and boosting the case for direct indexing, a strategy in which investors chose a basket of securities that mirror an index, but is personalized to their specifications.

Finsum: A new research paper found that tax-loss harvesting produced the best results when it's used for groups of individual stocks, not ETFs, boosting the case for direct indexing.

After a tough year in the equity markets, this year is shaping up to be a better year for investors as the S&P 500 is up over 7% through Monday’s close. This is happening amid numerous recession predictions across Wall Street. The rise in the stock market this year can be attributed to the growing sentiment that the worst is over when it comes to inflation and rising interest rates. In fact, a gauge of future volatility in the U.S. bond that tracks interest-rate turbulence is now showing an increasingly encouraging trend that is supporting the optimism in the market. The ICE BofA MOVE Index is extending a slide that started in October. It has now fallen to lows not seen since March when the Fed started its aggressive interest-rate increases. The index continued to fall after the Fed’s latest meeting on Wednesday, where according to billionaire investor Jeffrey Gundlach, Fed Chair Jerome Powell “didn't fight back in his speech Wednesday against market expectations that the Fed will soften its rate policy later this year.” The Fed raised benchmark borrowing costs by only 25 basis points, the smallest increase since last March. Over the past year, the trajectory of the S&P 500 has moved inversely to the MOVE index, showing the market's sensitivity to the interest-rate outlook.

Finsum:The stock market has rebounded this year as the ICE BofA MOVE Index, which measures bond volatility, has been sliding since October.

After two years of surging growth, this earnings season could mark the beginning of energy company profits coming back down to earth. That is according to Wall Street analysts who believe Big Oil has passed its peak. However, the ride down is expected to be slow, with companies still expected to bring in large profits for some time. Last year was a boon to oil and gas companies. The energy sector ended the year up 64.56% as sky-high oil and gas prices were one of the largest contributors to inflation. The sector thrived with a hawkish Fed, high inflation, economic uncertainty, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But analysts don’t believe this will continue for much longer. HSBC Global Research analysts wrote in a note that “Although 2023 should remain a solid year for the integrated oils, there is less headroom than we envisaged just a couple of months ago given the correction in oil prices and halving in European gas prices.” In addition, Bank of America estimates that earnings for the fourth quarter from oil and gas producers will be down 11% from third-quarter levels. Doug Leggate, a Bank of America research analyst, wrote in a recent note that “In our view, upcoming earnings for the US oils will be one of the most consequential in several years. It is now clear that the best quarter for many US oils has passed.”

Finsum:While oil and gas companies thrived in last year’s conditions, Wall Street analysts think profits will eventually come back down to earth due to a recent correction in oil prices and the halving of European gas prices.

While markets in 2022 were crushing for many, some portfolio managers at Capital Group are seeing brighter days ahead this year, but are still playing it safe. At a webinar revealing the firm’s asset allocations for this year, managers stated that they are reacting to a changing environment and that the market’s direction will depend on the movements of the Federal Reserve. John Queen, fixed-income portfolio manager said, “The key is inflation, and the path inflation takes from here is really going to determine what the macro environment looks like, what happens with interest rates here in the U.S., and then how aggressively the Fed is willing to combat that inflation if it stays somewhat elevated.” While the adjustments that the firm is making to its model portfolios are small, they are tilting away from growth and moving toward income, according to the panel. For instance, in its growth and income model portfolio, Capital Group moved 5% of its allocation out of a balanced fund and into a diversified fixed-income fund. Michelle Black, another solutions portfolio manager at the firm stated, “For a 20-year horizon, the starting point matters, and starting after a down year means positive outcomes for long-term investors. It’s probably not surprising to hear we have higher expected returns across the board versus one year ago, stemming really from more attractive valuations, especially in fixed income.”

Finsum:Capital Group portfolio managers are tilting away from growth and moving towards income in their model portfolios due to attractive valuations in fixed income.