Eq: Total Market
Bank of America put out a stern warning this week. A team of Bank of America equity strategists led by Ohsung Kwon says that the current market looks eerily like the one in the fourth quarter of 2018, when stocks fell 20%. The market is experiencing some concerns on near-term earnings as companies cut back forecasts. According to Kwon, “The nearest memory of early cycle companies' impact on the market is almost exactly three years ago when companies warned about tariffs and slowing macro conditions during 3Q18 earnings … Those warnings and a hawkish Fed resulted in a 20% decline in the S&P 500”.
FINSUM: 2018 came within a hair of a full bear market. That feels too bearish given the overall trajectory of growth. If Congress doesn’t get the debt ceiling raised, though, all bets are off.
Firstly, some good news for advisors, Morningstar has announced it is doubling its analyst coverage of models next year from a current 250. Within that coverage, advisors can also find the top 15 models according to Morningstar. Here are those ranked 15-11. Number 15: T. Rowe Price Active, number 14: Dimensional Tax-Sensitive, number 13: Dimensional Core Wealth, number 12: Fidelity Target Allocation Index-Focused, number 11: BlackRock Target Allocation Tax-Aware ETF.
FINSUM: A nice diverse group of models with a lot of different focus areas. Great start for further research.
By Liz Su, CFA and Kevin Hart, CIMA of Boston Common Asset Management
Responsible investors have long believed that investing with embedded consideration of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors is a compelling approach to identify investment opportunities: well-run, thoughtfully managed companies built for the long term, ready to foster societal transition and dynamically adapt to our rapidly changing world. This belief is simple enough to justify: identification, application, and integration of ESG risks and opportunities can provide investors with additional, independently derived insight into a company’s management quality, strategic positioning, operational efficiency, and potential risk exposure.
The broader investment community has caught on. In 2020, ESG funds saw greater inflows than in any year prior, a nearly 140% increase over 2019 and nearly ten times greater than in 2018. Corporations have responded to this shift, with a record number of companies appointing their first Chief Sustainability Officer (CSO) in 2020, a year that saw more CSOs recruited than in the previous three years combined.
SUSTAINABLE FUND ANNUAL FLOWS AND ASSETS
Source: Morningstar. Data as of 12/31/2020
Includes Sustainable Funds as defined in Sustainable Funds U.S. Landscape Report, Feb. 2020.
Includes funds that have been liquidated, does not include funds of funds.
The transformative potential in the hands of ESG investors has grown by orders of magnitude. This exponential growth has brought an increasingly crowded field with a variety of approaches to ESG, creating ambiguity in the marketplace over what it means to be intentional as an impact investor. An authentic, intentional, and holistic approach relies on aligning active ownership strategies (e.g., shareholder resolutions, public policy participation, voting proxies) with stated investment goals, an ESG-led research process, and impact-oriented themes and targets.
Dispelling a Persistent Myth
There has been a widespread misconception among investors that ESG factors are non-financial. This is not entirely accurate. ESG factors can instead represent unpriced externalities and unmanaged risks that are uncorrelated with traditional financial metrics. By incorporating ESG factors into security analysis, investors can identify a host of material issues core to business fundamentals, enhancing the ability to recognize patterns that are not already priced in.
In addition to risk-mitigation, businesses that proactively accelerate the adoption of positive ESG practices and the development of solutions-oriented products have a unique opportunity to exceed revenue expectations and thus be rewarded with higher ratings over time. These companies may see an improving competitive position versus peers, while those that are on the wrong side of this transition may see changes in their cost of capital and an accompanying deterioration in their competitive position. Investing in the transition to a more just, sustainable world gives investors access to solutions-fixed revenue streams while altering the trajectory on climate action and racial equity among a host of other vital issues.
Identifying strong business fundamentals and ESG process leadership — underpinned by the belief that businesses with forward-thinking managements are higher quality — combined with insights gained from global, proactive, and sustained shareowner engagement can together form a positive feedback loop for better investment decision-making. Managers with the knowledge and experience to employ this holistic approach understand the need to incorporate the product dimension into impact and support companies whose products and services are solutions for societal, environmental, and human rights problems.
ACTIVE OWNERSHIP STRATEGIES
The Way Forward
We are at an inflection point where ESG is transitioning from niche to mainstream. True to the original spirit of the movement, we should hope not to build a new investment establishment in the image of the old, but instead to forge a dynamic, holistic, evolved approach, generating positive impacts by holding companies accountable as stewards of people and planet. As investors, holding ourselves to the same high standards we demand of portfolio companies will go a long way toward making these impacts sustainable.
We hope that you will join us on the journey.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk including possible loss of principal.
This does not constitute investment advice or an investment recommendation.
This represents the views and opinions of Boston Common Asset Management. It does not constitute investment advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any security and is subject to change at any time due to changes in market or economic conditions. The comments should not be construed as a recommendation of individual holdings or market sectors, but as an illustration of broader themes.
Applying ESG investment criteria to investments may result in the selection or exclusion of securities of certain issuers for reasons other than performance, and may underperform investments that do not utilize an ESG investment strategy. The application of an ESG strategy may affect an investment's exposure to certain companies, sectors, regions, countries or types of investments, which could negatively impact performance depending on whether such investments are in or out of favor. Applying ESG criteria to investment decisions is qualitative and subjective by nature, and there is no guarantee that the criteria utilized or any judgment exercised by an investment manager will reflect the beliefs or values of any particular investor.
AMG Funds LLC (“AMG Funds”) is a wholly-owned subsidiary and U.S. retail distribution arm of AMG. AMG Funds offers long-term investment strategies through a unique platform that includes a family of funds and separate accounts managed by a selection of AMG's investment managers.
N.B. This is sponsored content and not FINSUM editorial.
A successful 8-month streak has put the market well above expectations, and there are reasons to still be optimistic, but the number of protection plays is growing on Walls Street. Whether it is a slowing economy, rising inflation, spreading delta variant, or tapering tantrum there are lots of reasons to stay protected which is why over $5 billion in inflows are headed to volatility-based protections. Funds like the Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF (PFIX) offer a direct hedge against a future of the interest rate market by placing a call on Treasury derivatives. A wider hedge against the ETF like the Simplify Volatility Premierm ETF (SVOL) which can generate a yield from swings in the Cboe Volatility Index. This hedge is less specific than the PFIX but it gives investors a bigger safety net in any of the scenarios above or unforeseen risks in the economy.
FINSUM: Honestly leave the bond hedges to the past as there is no return. Instead, SVOL and PFIX are hedges that will likely clip the Treasury return anyway and provide more relief in case equities go upside down.
Markets are fretting over a variety of concerns: spreading delta variant, Chinese regulator crackdown, and Fed taper. However, Goldman Sachs says these risks are overblown, as delta variant will likely be less worrisome economically and their Fed forecast is dovish. They see a sharp turnaround for cyclical assets such as higher equities and higher bond yields in the short run. Near-term optimism will fuel US and Euro equities and most likely boost Japanese stocks as well. Going so far as to recommend shorting long-term euro bonds, and buying economically sensitive currencies like the Norwegian krone and South Korean won, which will appreciate relative to the dollar. This near-term cyclical rally won’t last long as they expect 2022 to deal from a different deck that won’t be as friendly to investors.
FINSUM: Weaker jobs growth will also delay the Fed’s taper, aiding in the cyclical rally.
The market was hit hard by bad economic data this week and yet markets barely budged. Consumer sentiment, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, and Home Prices all swirled a whirlwind of bad news for markets and yet they hardly budged. This is because markets are convinced more than ever that bad news is good news because it will have the Fed kick the tapering can down the road. Powell made it clear that the new Fed environment will accommodate higher inflation and that while tapering might start this year, the Fed is a long way from rate hikes. This means growth-oriented interest rate-dependent stocks will do well as the Fed favors employment over inflation in its dual mandate.
FINSUM: Powell has all but confirmed a slow transition in monetary policy, don’t look for economic data to be the breaking point in your portfolio.