Around two-thirds of active bond funds outperformed their average passive peers during the 12-month period ending June 30, according to Morningstar's latest Active/Passive Barometer. The report, which examines the performance of over 8,000 funds across various categories, highlighted that intermediate core bond funds led the way, beating passive funds 72% of the time.
These active bond funds benefitted from narrowing credit spreads and inflation that kept interest rate cuts on hold. However, over a 10- and 15-year horizon, only 45.5% and 15.9% of these funds outperformed, respectively.
Additionally, actively managed real estate funds outperformed their passive counterparts 66% of the time over the same 12 months, with U.S. and global real estate funds seeing strong short-term success.
As the Federal Reserve signals more rate cuts, long-term municipal bonds (munis) are becoming increasingly attractive due to their competitive yields, tax benefits, and potential for price appreciation. Historically, long-term munis tend to outperform when the Fed shifts from a hawkish to a dovish stance, benefiting from falling interest rates.
These bonds also offer superior credit quality and often deliver higher tax-equivalent yields compared to taxable bonds, making them a strong alternative to Treasuries. With their longer durations, munis are particularly sensitive to rate changes, allowing for significant price gains in a falling rate environment.
Moreover, the increased issuance of municipal bonds this year has created a favorable buying opportunity, especially as tax reforms and higher marginal rates could further boost demand for tax-exempt investments.
Finsum: For investors looking to capitalize on rate cuts, long-term munis offer a compelling mix of yield, tax advantages, and credit stability
Advisors today face increasing challenges in helping clients achieve and maintain financial independence. With high U.S. stock valuations predicting lower future returns, and bond yields offering minimal real returns, portfolio strategies need to evolve.
Clients are also grappling with rising living costs, longer life spans, and elevated housing prices, creating greater financial strain. Factor investing offers a solution, selecting securities based on traits like momentum, quality, and low volatility, which have historically outperformed.
These strategies can be implemented cost-effectively through ETFs and optimized for tax efficiency within households. Although no factor guarantees success in every market, a diversified approach to factor investing provides a long-term opportunity for outperformance.
Finsum: Factor investing is robust proven strategy that can bring legitacy to new advisors or those looking to expand client adoption.
Goldman Sachs projects that the stock market could see a 15% rise by year-end if mega-cap tech stocks continue their strong performance. The bank argues that tech stocks are not currently in a bubble, as investors are focused on companies with profitable growth rather than speculative ones.
Goldman’s David Kostin notes that while long-term growth expectations for the S&P 500 are slightly above average, they remain well below levels seen during previous market bubbles. Despite concerns about the high concentration in a few tech giants, Goldman believes this is justified given their rapid growth compared to other S&P 500 companies.
The valuation spread between market-cap-weighted and equal-weighted S&P 500 indexes does not suggest bubble conditions, staying below historical extremes.
Finsum: We would look into more traditional measures like price to earning ratios if we are concerned about a bubble forming, rather than just long run growth.
Apollo Global Management Inc. is exploring the possibility of establishing a trading desk to buy and sell direct loans in the $1.7 trillion private credit market, which is typically illiquid. While the plans are still preliminary and could be abandoned, Apollo’s interest follows similar moves by other firms like Golub Capital and JPMorgan Chase.
These firms are actively trading private loans, although such transactions remain rare due to lenders' preference to hold debt until maturity. Concerns exist that increased trading could undermine the benefits of direct lending, such as privacy, convenience, and price stability.
However, secondary trading could be attractive to investors looking to enhance liquidity or reposition their portfolios. As the private credit market evolves, trading direct loans might become more common, especially for distressed assets.
Finsum: As a key figure in the space its important to keep an eye on the changes Apollo is making in private credit.
In recent months, the stock market has been extremely volatile, prompting increased interest in low-volatility low-cost ETFs. While the market has seen gains this year due to a growing appetite for riskier investments, uncertainties like the Federal Reserve's future actions, geopolitical tensions, and the upcoming U.S. presidential election still loom large.
Low-volatility ETFs offer investors a way to participate in the market with potentially less risk, although they are not immune to sharp downturns. These funds may underperform compared to more dynamic portfolios, especially during market surges. However, they can be attractive for those prioritizing capital preservation over high returns.
Examples of popular low-volatility ETFs include the Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF, which focuses on the least volatile stocks in the S&P 500, and the iShares MSCI EAFE Min Vol Factor ETF, which targets lower-risk companies in developed markets outside the U.S.
Finsum: Be mindful of what thematic ETFs you want to integrate into your portfolios, because there will be a chance to capitalize in the coming months.
As the stock market hovers near all-time highs, investors are seeking a balance between optimism and caution, with alternative ETFs gaining traction as a popular choice for risk management and income generation.
The latest data reveals that while U.S. equity and fixed-income ETFs lead in demand, alternatives ETFs are growing rapidly, reflecting a shift toward more diversified and protective strategies. These funds offer exposure beyond traditional stocks and bonds, incorporating elements like commodities, digital assets, and derivatives to manage risk and generate returns.
Notably, products like the Global X Nasdaq 100 Tail Risk ETF and Fidelity's options-based portfolios are attracting attention for their innovative approaches to downside protection and income. The appeal of alternatives ETFs lies in their simplicity and accessibility, allowing even complex strategies to become core components of investor portfolios.
Finsum: Most of the time the downside of alts is the liquidity component, being able to use ETFs is a great way to counteract this.
Investors are increasingly flocking to US government bond ETFs as anticipation grows for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September. BlackRock's TLT, the largest ETF for long-dated Treasury bonds, saw nearly $4 billion in inflows from early August through Monday, marking one of its highest monthly inflows since inception.
This surge indicates a resurgence in bond interest following a period of weak returns and significant outflows in 2022. As economic slowdowns push investors towards safer fixed-income options, bond yields have dropped in response to the Fed’s potential rate reductions.
Retail and institutional investors alike are rediscovering bonds, with $12.2 billion flowing into US sovereign bond ETFs in August alone. The overall bond market's revival is evident, with taxable bond funds and ETFs attracting over $280 billion in the first seven months of the year, surpassing the total inflows for 2023.
Finsum: Holding bonds as interest rates fall and their prices rise sems to be one of the classic strategies that we haven’t been able to leverage on this scale in a long time.
This year, major private equity firms like Blackstone, KKR, and Carlyle have significantly slowed their investment activity in China, reflecting growing geopolitical tensions and Beijing’s tighter control over businesses.
Once a thriving market, China's appeal has diminished rapidly, with only five small investments made by the top 10 global buyout firms this year, a stark contrast to the 30 deals made in 2021. The change marks a sharp decline in enthusiasm from international investors who once saw China as a goldmine.
Factors contributing to this downturn include geopolitical challenges, regulatory unpredictability, and a cooling economy. The slowdown in China-specific deals is more pronounced than the global trend, which has also been affected by rising interest rates, making debt-driven private equity models more costly.
Finsum: Taking stock of these geopolitical factors in important for any portfolio.
Morgan Stanley's CEO Ted Pick announced that artificial intelligence could potentially save the bank's financial advisers 10 to 15 hours per week by automating tasks such as transcribing and entering notes from client meetings. This AI tool is expected to significantly boost adviser productivity and help tailor investment strategies to better meet the needs of wealthy clients.
Pick also predicted that high interest rates in the U.S. will continue, aligning with views from leaders at JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, and noted that this environment could benefit the bank's trading and market-making activities.
Morgan Stanley plans to expand its lending to high-net-worth clients through more advanced financial products as deposits increase. Pick emphasized the bank’s commitment to maintaining its dividend while suggesting that stock buybacks would be influenced by market conditions.
Finsum: By using AI to boost productivity this extra time could be devoted to deepening client relationships or new client adoption.
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Amplify ETFs has launched the Amplify CWP Growth & Income ETF (QDVO), further expanding its suite of income-focused funds. QDVO aims to deliver high total returns by strategically investing at least 80% of its assets in growth-oriented U.S. equities, while also generating high monthly income through an opportunistic covered call writing strategy.
This approach targets around 4-6% income from option premiums and up to 2% from dividends. QDVO is designed to complement Amplify's other successful ETFs, DIVO and IDVO, offering a diversified strategy for optimizing portfolios in various market conditions.
The ETF seeks to provide investors with a balanced approach to growth and income, making it an attractive option for those looking to enhance their portfolios.
Finsum: Pairing income with an active ETF might make the most sense as we head into the final bout with inflation in the fall.
Transitioning to a new custodian in the financial industry can seem challenging, especially with the complex regulatory environment. However, with thoughtful preparation and the right choice of custodian, the process can be seamless and beneficial.
This involves understanding the differences between bank custodians and broker-dealers, with banks often providing greater transparency, asset safety, and flexibility. Key steps include reviewing existing contracts, gathering necessary documents, and clearly communicating your organization’s needs to the new custodian.
Engaging a dedicated conversion team ensures a smooth transition by managing timelines, addressing concerns promptly, and customizing the process to your specific requirements. With these measures in place, you can successfully navigate the transition, allowing your organization to thrive with the support of a custodian that aligns with your long-term goals.
Finsum: These tips provide a nice framework for transitioning and considering wither you are ready, but keep in mind the technology accommodations as well.
Asian currencies experienced a significant rally, reaching their highest levels in seven months. This surge was driven by diminishing concerns about a U.S. recession, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in the near future, and a more favorable economic outlook within the region.
The Bloomberg Asia Dollar Index increased by 0.6%, with notable gains from the South Korean won, Malaysian ringgit, and Thai baht. These currency gains were supported by stronger-than-expected economic data and political developments in key Asian markets. Additionally, regional equities also rose, reflecting growing investor confidence in Asia’s economic prospects.
The South Korean won and the Philippine peso were among the top performers, with the won reaching its highest level since March and the peso marking its biggest gain since November. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen also appreciated, with traders closely monitoring potential hints from the Bank of Japan's governor on the future direction of the country's monetary policy.
Finsum: The demand driving these currency shifts could really come into full swing if the Fed successfully dodges a recession.
Golub Capital is increasingly active in trading private credit deals, reflecting a broader trend in the industry as interest in secondary markets for direct loans grows. The firm traded approximately $1 billion in private debt during the first half of the year, positioning itself as a key player alongside others like JPMorgan Chase.
While secondary trading in the $1.7 trillion private credit market remains relatively uncommon, there's growing demand for liquidity and flexibility among investors. However, some industry participants argue that trading could undermine the appeal of direct lending, which traditionally offers privacy and stability.
Despite this, Golub and other firms are exploring these markets, balancing the benefits of liquidity with the traditional advantages of private credit.
Finsum: For investors not concerned with liquidity, private credit could prove a strong investment in this fall cycle.