(Seattle)

Amazon has just taken a big step to improve the welfare of its enormous mass of workers. The company has raised the minimum wage across all its businesses to $15 per hour. The wage will apply to the company’s 250,000 employees and 100,000 holiday workers and will begin on November 1st. Amazon also says that it will now push for an increase to the federal minimum wage of $7.25 per hour.

FINSUM: This is a good move for Amazon’s workers, but it might be even better for Amazon’s reputation. The company has recently come under scrutiny for its labor and monopolistic practices, and this is one way to offset those concerns.

(New York)

A trade war is in full swing. While the US finally closed an updated trade deal with Mexico and Canada this weekend, the big battle with China is still revving up. Both sides have raised tariffs considerably in recent weeks and have canceled various negotiations and meetings. With that in mind, Goldman has put out a list of stocks they say will perform well in the ongoing trade battle. Overall, Goldman says shares with high and stable margins are in the best position to pass along cost pressures, which means they are the best bet for investors. “Companies with high pricing power are well-positioned to pass through input cost pressure to consumers, preserving high margins … The market typically rewards companies with high margins when the outlook for corporate profitability worsens”, says the bank. Some of the stocks listed include Autozone, Adobe, Coca-Cola, VeriSign, Ralph Lauren, and Expedia, among a total list of 33 companies.

FINSUM: We like the approach and diversity of this list of shares. We do think a commanding market position will be key to maintaining margins, so agree with Goldman’s view here.

(New York)

The big question on every investor’s mind (and Wall Street’s) is when the US recession will arrive. With the economy doing so well, and certain indicators flashing negative, a recession in the next few years looks all but certain. But how soon? Some say it will be by the end of 2019, others think that is too aggressive. Well, a survey of US business economists has just been published that shows a majority of them believe the recession will arrive before the end of 2020. Most precisely, 66% believe a recession will occur before the end of that year.

FINSUM: This seems like a fair representation to us, but predicting the timing of recessions is notoriously difficult, so there may be little value in this survey.

(New York)

Looking at the market’s performance, it is probably a good time to short some shares. The majority of gains for the sector are being driven by a handful of high-flying tech shares, but the majority of stocks are doing much. Therefore, it seems like a good bet to short certain under-performing sectors. However, the options for doing so aren’t great, as the majority of short ETFs cover the whole market or are heavily leveraged. Now there is a new option though, the AdvisorShares Dorsey Wright Short ETF. The ETF shorts only the market’s 80 to 100 weakest mid and large caps, and it is one of only four short ETFs that don’t seek to replicate an index’s return.

FINSUM: This seems like a very good application of the smart beta concept.

(Los Angeles)

Another tumultuous week for Tesla is in the books, but for the first time in a while, it looks the company may be headed in a positive direction. Last week, the SEC sued Elon Musk for fraud based on his tweets about taking the company private, which sent the stock plunging. However, on Saturday, it was announced that Musk had reached a settlement with the regulator, agreeing to give up his chairmanship of the board, in addition to a $20m fine, but remaining CEO. This news sent the stock soaring in pre-market trading.

FINSUM: This seems like a better operational and governance structure for Tesla and we hope it will prove a positive development.

(Washington)

The Fed has hiked rates many times over the last couple of years, but the overall attitude of Fed officials has been very relaxed. They have been diligent to project a very mild outlook of rate hikes. However, that may be set to change, argues the Financial Times. The US economy is growing very strongly, and the odds that the Fed may have to adopt a much more hawkish position are growing. The Fed’s hikes, though frequent, have been small, meaning policy is still accommodative and pro-growth. However, given the state of the expansion, a sharp move higher in rates is looking increasingly necessary.

FINSUM: Given the Fed’s most recent statement, this argument carries some weight. We can see Powell and the team getting more hawkish. That said, the economic tailwind of tax changes is fading, so perhaps it won’t be necessary.

(New York)

Rates are rising and new statements out of the Fed make it seem like the central bank could become more aggressive with its hike. With that in mind, the Wall Street Journal thinks it is time to adjust portfolios to account for a hawkish Fed. The biggest recommendation that the WSJ makes is that investors in retirement should keep a healthy allocation to stocks. Even though rates are rising, yields may not get high enough quickly enough to provide good returns. Accordingly, keeping a solid portion of capital in equity seems smart, but don’t swing for the fences. Next, make sure to stay very diversified to mitigate risks, and particularly, beware rate sensitive sectors like utilities or REITs.

FINSUM: This is sound advice, though nothing that would not be second nature for an advisor.

(New York)

That is quite a counterintuitive headline, but in an odd way, it could not be more true. Bloomberg has put out a piece, which echoes many advisors, that the current bull market could actually end up hurting many retirees. The reason why is that many have experienced hefty gains in the last decade and feel comfortable retiring. However, after such a sharp run higher, the market is likely to experience a steep correction. For retirees seeking to steadily withdraw money from their accounts, this could pose a major problem, as a drop in the market could cause such significant damage to portfolio value that even outperformance in subsequent years may not make up for it.

FINSUM: This is a valuable point that all retirees and their advisors need to bear in mind. Portfolio construction and planning definitely need to take this threat into account.

(Los Angeles)

Tesla investors got some grim news yesterday (unless you are the group hoping for Musk’s departure). That news is that the SEC is suing Elon Musk for fraud and is seeking to have him removed as the leader of Tesla. The suit seeks to have Musk banned from serving as an officer or director of a public company. The basis for the suit is the series of tweets Musk made regarding taking the company private, which the SEC says were “false and misleading statements”.

FINSUM: This is a pretty serious move from the SEC, made worse by news out today that Musk chose the price of $420 as a marijuana reference to impress his girlfriend.

(New York)

Retail has been doing great lately and may be poised to continue its gains. However, the best way to play the sector might not be to buy retail stocks. Instead, consider buying real estate stocks that would gain from retail’s success. With that in mind, Barron’s has run a piece choosing seven real estate stocks that will benefit from retail’s growth: Simon Property Group, Link REIT, Brixmor Property Group, Public Storage, and Mid-America Apartment Communities.

FINSUM: Make no mistake, these are deeply contrarian bets given the challenges mall and other retail REITs are facing. That said, if the strategy works, it may do so in a big way.