Displaying items by tag: stocks

Monday, 28 February 2022 17:26

Why Stocks are Rising in the Face of Conflict

Investors, advisors included, seem to be wondering why the stock market has done quite well since Thursday morning when Russia invaded Ukraine. Many expected stocks to tumble—and they initially did—but the opposite has happened, with the S&P 500 up around 5% since the close of business on the 23rd. The reason why has everything to do with the Fed and interest rates. The market now thinks the Fed is in a bind and won’t be able to hike rates as fast as they would have been able to before the conflict. This would mean a slower stop of the easy money surge that has gone on for years. Markets are now only forecasting a 12.5% chance of a 50 bp hike in March.

FINSUM: Stocks have jumped as a simple reaction to the fact that the path of rate hikes looks less steep right now than it did a week ago, which is also why the tech-heavy Nasdaq has jumped the most.

Published in Eq: Total Market
Tuesday, 22 February 2022 11:22

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Published in Bonds: Total Market
Monday, 21 February 2022 20:00

Models Can Help with Too Much Risk Exposure

Many investors have become accustomed to the rising equity prices that have been pumped up by an ultra-low rate environment and are overexposed to too much risk, at least that's the opinion of 4/5ths of investment professionals surveyed by Natixis Investment managers. Over 3/4rs of professionals surveyed said that inflation and interest rates were the biggest risks to portfolios moving forward. The way out of that risk exposure is to have more active management which can thrive when the risks are apparent. The other solution is model portfolios which have been built to target specific risks like inflation or interest rate risk. Finally, advisors are being begged to add crypto to portfolios in a high weight, and are unsure of how this fits into portfolios.

Finsum: Regular volatility or supply-side shocks are almost impossible to predict, but when the risks are very apparent investors should take the necessary precautions.

Published in Eq: Tech
Wednesday, 05 January 2022 20:00

JPMorgan Gets Very Bullish

JPMorgan Chase & Co issued a statement for investors to remain bullish about global equities moving forward. They believe the largest sources of risk are hawkish central banks, slowing growth in China, and global covid restrictions, but most of these threats are already priced in. Even if they aren’t quite priced in the chances of them really materializing is minimal. They remain positive as benchmark indices remain at near all-time highs. This sentiment is shared by lots on Wallstreet, like Credit Suisse. Moreover, to best take advantage of this growth, they advise to overweight Euro stocks, financial, commodity miners, and automobile manufactures.

FINSUM: The bears haven’t stopped barking but equities remain high and P/E ratios aren’t crazy, there’s room to run. 

Published in Eq: Total Market
Monday, 13 December 2021 08:15

Goldman Says Don’t Buy the Dip

November was full of volatility, and that's more than leaked into December, but Goldman warned investors about buying the dip hoping for a post Christmas rally. The biggest two threats Goldman sees are ongoing, the new omicron Covid 19 variant and the newfound inflation hawkishness by the Fed. The bear wave has hit a variety of asset classes whether its tech or bitcoin, and their risk appetite is low. The street is mixed however as some indications of omicron is it won’t be severe and Fed actions haven’t taken hold just yet. The VIX is still above its short and longer run moving averages which should keep investors cautious.

FINSUM: There is really no reason to move drastically right now, the Fed will be more transparent in the next couple of months.

Published in Eq: Total Market
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