FINSUM
According to COVID Loan Tracker, big banks are not doing a good job getting money moving to those who have applied for PPP loans. In their latest update yesterday afternoon, with around 8,000 companies reporting around $3.5 bn of loans from all 50 states, the large majority are getting approved through small and regional banks. In fact, JP Morgan Chase seems to be the only bank getting any applications approved, as Wells Fargo and Bank of America are showing very few approvals on COVID Loan Tracker, with Citi showing none.
PLEASE HELP US HELP SMALL BUSINESS OWNERS BY FILLING OUT THE FORM
COVID Loan Tracker was started by small business owners Duncan and Rita MacDonald-Korth to help their fellow small business owners understand when PPP and EIDL advance money starts flowing. The site works by crowdsourcing knowledge on applications and loan disbursements. Our goal is to help the small business community and empower journalists with the data they need to keep the government accountable.
Small and regional banks have been leading the charge in approvals all over the country. This is reportedly because many small and regional banks were already set up to process SBA loans as part of their normal course of business before the COVID-19 outbreak. This means they were already familiar and connected to the E-Tran system being used to process the loans by the SBA.
(New York)
Some investment banks are saying that the worst of the volatility is over and that markets have bottomed (e.g. Goldman Sachs). However, different approaches give very different valuations. For instance, a new research opinion from Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at INTL FCStone, says that fair value for the S&P 500 is 1,800, or more than 35% below today’s value. The method that comes to that conclusion is a discounted cash flow method that tries to derive the value of future cash flows.
FINSUM: In our opinion, this is a total crap shoot (and even more so right now) as the market is being driven by emotion and speculation to an even larger degree than usual.
(New York)
Dividend stocks are a scary space right now. Not only are earnings likely to be very volatile, but companies have announced major dividend cuts and the suspension of buyback programs. With that in mind, here are some stocks that offer safe and rewarding dividends. Regulated utilities are a great place to turn because they have government-allowed profit margins and are very recession-resistant. Check out American Electric Power (3.3% yield), Dominion Energy (4.6%), FirstEnergy (3.5%), NextEra Energy (2.3%).
FINSUM: These seem like great bets. They are down a little since the COVID explosion, which has boosted yields, but utilities are generally great recession stocks.
We could not be more excited today, as Mark Cuban has featured COVID Loan Tracker and shared with his LinkedIn following.
COVID Loan Tracker was founded in Miami by husband and wife team Duncan and Rita MacDonald-Korth in order to help small business owners track when PPP loan money starts flowing and empower journalists with the data they need to hold the government accountable.
The site’s traffic jumped by 50x yesterday versus Friday and COVID Loan Tracker received an additional 4,000 survey submissions from small businesses yesterday. In total, CLT is now tracking 7,000 PPP loan applications amounting to about $3 bn in applications.
Thus far only about 4% of companies reporting have successfully received PPP Loans.
(New York)
Goldman Sachs is making their position clear. The bank thinks that after all the volatility we have seen, the worst is behind us and stocks have already hit bottom. Goldman says that because of the Fed’s “do whatever it takes” attitude, it is unlikely the market will fall further. “The Fed and Congress have precluded the prospect of a complete economic collapse … These policy actions mean our previous near-term downside of 2,000 is no longer likely” for the S&P 500 Index, according to the bank’s strategists.
FINSUM: We are of two minds on this. On the one hand, Goldman makes a good point about the Fed propping up markets. On the other, there is a liquidity-induced real estate crisis brewing and the true ramifications of this downturn (including its expression in S&P 500 earnings) will not be felt for a few months.
(New York)
For many advisors, the idea of changing firms in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic might be the furthest thing from their minds. But the reality is that for many, this could be an ideal time to switch (or even a necessity) for a number of reasons. Firstly, many advisors feel under-supported by their firms during crises (of which this one is unprecedented), which may motivate them to switch associations. But additionally, because of the volatile to the market, recent valuations/production numbers might mean moving soon makes the most sense, as it will maximize the size of moving checks one can receive.
FINSUM: A lot of advisors seem to be worried about maintaining their employees and payroll given the big fall in fees.
COVID Loan Tracker was started by small business owners Duncan and Rita MacDonald-Korth to help their fellow small business owners understand when PPP and EIDL advance money starts flowing. The site works by crowdsourcing knowledge on applications and loan disbursements. Our goal is to help the small business community and empower journalists with the data they need to keep leaders accountable for the promises they made about the PPP program.
PLEASE HELP SMALL BUSINESS OWNERS BY FILLING OUT THE 60-second FORM
We have received an absolute torrent of attention today. Website traffic has jumped 50x since Friday and we are currently getting 6 complete surveys per minute. As of 2:30 PM we have about 5,000 businesses reporting around $2.5 bn PPP loan applications across all 50 states.
The overall picture is improving slowly, with 2.7% of companies saying they have received a PPP loan disbursement (i.e. actually deposited).
Data from Successful Applicants:
• Percentage of companies successfully receiving a PPP loan: 2.7%
• Average days from application to receipt: 5.9 days
• Median PPP loan size: $153,000
• Median employees: 18
Trends:
• The average timeline of a successful application is rising (as would be expected as time ticks on).
• The median loan size has shot up considerably, almost doubling to $153k since the last update.
Takeaways:
Overall, PPP loans are being paid, but the vast majority of applicants are still in the dark on their applications. Also, larger companies with larger payrolls and more employees seem to be getting receiving more of the early money. That said, there is a significant minority of smaller businesses receiving it too. Keep up the hope!
COVID Loan Tracker was started by small business owners Duncan and Rita MacDonald-Korth to help their fellow small business owners understand when PPP and EIDL advance money starts flowing. The site works by crowdsourcing knowledge on applications and loan disbursements. Our goal is to help the small business community and empower journalists with the data they need to keep leaders accountable for the promises they made about the PPP program.
PLEASE HELP SMALL BUSINESS OWNERS BY FILLING OUT THE 60-second FORM
Applications are flooding in this morning—several per minute—and we have compiled the data to-date. As of 8 am, over 3,000 companies have reported on their PPP loans, with $1.5 bn in loan applications across all 50 states.
The Data:
• 2.4% of businesses report receiving PPP loan disbursements
• 91% got the full amount they applied for
• $84,000 is the median PPP loan received
• 84% of PPP Loans disbursed came through small/regional banks
• 10% of PPP Loans disbursed came through JP Morgan Chase
Trends:
• Small and regional banks are the backbone of the PPP loan disbursement, reportedly because they were already well established to process SBA loans, so had the best infrastructure
• JP Morgan deserves some thanks, as it is the first big bank to really open the PPP loan spigot
• Wells Fargo and Bank America appear to finally be issuing loans
• Most successful applicants are getting the full amount they applied for
• With applications being fully funded, the money is likely to run out sooner
PLEASE KEEP SPREADING THE WORD SO WE CAN KEEP THE DATA FLOWING
COVID Loan Tracker was started by small business owners Duncan and Rita MacDonald-Korth to help their fellow small business owners understand when PPP and EIDL advance money starts flowing. The site works by crowdsourcing knowledge on applications and loan disbursements. Our goal is to help the small business community and empower journalists with the data they need to keep the government accountable.
PLEASE HELP US HELP SMALL BUSINESS OWNERS BY FILLING OUT THE FORM
As of 7am on April 13th, we have had around 3,000 companies report on their PPP loan applications from all 50 states, comprising about $1.5 bn of loan requests.
While the numbers are small so far—about 40 companies say they have received PPP loans—the early indications are positive in an important way: most are getting the full amount they applied for. So far, 91% of companies say they have received the entirety of what they applied for. Of those who did not receive the whole amount, only one received more than a 15% reduction from the amount they applied for (e.g. receiving $85,000 on a $100,000 application).
So what is the implication of that data? Firstly, it seems to mean that banks and the SBA are not arbitrarily reducing loans to spread the money around more evenly to a larger group of companies. On the one hand this is good news, but on the other it has a serous ramification: the money is likely to run out quickly and many companies may get nothing once the funds run dry.
PLEASE FILL OUT THE COVID LOAN TRACKER SURVEY SO WE CAN KEEP THE DATA COMING!
COVID Loan Tracker was started by small business owners Duncan and Rita MacDonald-Korth to help their fellow small business owners understand when PPP and EIDL advance money starts flowing. The site works by crowdsourcing knowledge on applications and loan disbursements. Our goal is to help the small business community and empower journalists with the data they need to keep the government accountable.
PLEASE HELP US HELP SMALL BUSINESS OWNERS BY FILLING OUT THE FORM!
The applications continued to pour in overnight, and as of 10am on April 12th, here is the data on successful applicants:
• 2,130 companies reporting
• Around $1.2 bn of PPP loans reported
• 34 companies report having received PPP
• 85% are from small/regional banks
• Avg PPP Loan Received: $65,600
• Average processing time from application to disbursement: 5.6 days
• Median company size: 12.5 employees
Trends:
• JP Morgan Chase should be applauded, it is the first big bank which seems to be getting PPP loans disbursed
• Small/regional banks continue to be the fastest in getting loans disbursed
• The SBA EIDL Advance program is a complete disaster so far. After promising delivery in 3 days, it has been around two weeks and only 4 out of 2,130 businesses report receiving it.
Data on applications:
• 35% LLC, 33% S-Corp
• 45.2% through small/regional banks
• Had pre-existing lending relationship with institution they applied through: 70.6%
• If you receive the PPP Loan, is it enough to keep you afloat: 45.7% say “No”