FINSUM
(New York)
An update to the SEC’s FAQs page has made something abundantly obvious—the title of “advisor” or “adviser” is about to get a lot more contentious. As part of its new Reg BI package, the SEC is bringing in additional rules around the use of titles. Regarding “advisor”, which is completely ubiquitous, the new rules are pretty clear: you cannot call yourself an “advisor” or “adviser” unless you are registered as an investment advisor. Another important note on this, according to Barron’s, “Broker-dealers that are affiliated with RIAs are generally prohibited from using the terms”.
FINSUM: This is a huge disruption to the lingua franca of the industry, but a big boon to investment advisors. Makes us wonder how much the public will actually care.
(New York)
The last couple of trading days have thrown cold water on that bullish trend that sent the market soaring all April. Weak earnings and huge job losses took their toll, and the reality of a slow-slog recovery are weighing on markets. With that in mind, a former Goldman Sachs fund manager, Will Meade, says that stocks are going to fall another 40% from here. Meade argues that this year will be just like the 2000 dotcom bubble: “The Nasdaq in 2000 did a similar bear market bounce as stocks this year — dropped 40%, then bounced 42% off the bottom retracing 61.8% of its drop. It stalled then fell 43%, making a new low four months later,”. Similar to 2000 is that fact that there is additional uncertainty this year created by the election.
FINSUM: This is far from implausible. As the reality of how hard this recovery might be sets in, markets may completely abandon their exuberance.
(New York)
New data is out showing which independents are gobbling up the most new recruits in the wealth management space. The overall picture emerging is that while April was a very slow month for changes, Raymond James and LPL are striding ahead of the competition through acquisitions and advisor recruiting. LPL has gotten 59 new recruits to join this year, while Raymond James has managed 20, worth $4 bn and $2.8 bn in AUM respectively. Some usual suspects have been absent so far this year. For instance, Advisor Group has lost more than 25 advisors to LPL in 2020 without announcing a single new advisor joining the network.
FINSUM: LPL and Raymond James have done a great job keeping their recruiting wallets open during this tough time. We expect the relationships they are building right now will keep their pipeline strong for the rest of the year.
(Atlanta)
If you have any hope for a quick airline recovery post-coronavirus, take that idea, crumple it into a little ball and throw it away. The reality of air travel’s recovery is looking bleaker by the week. On the one hand, additional safety measures are going to be necessity for a long time—and they will be costly. Extra screening, spacing out passengers etc all have significant costs. Additionally, many airlines will have to forego middle seating to create adequate distance between passengers, cutting down on capacity. All of this will come as demand for air travel remains low in the short-term and secularly weaker in the long-term. For instance, business travel for meetings, conferences etc all looks likely to be very slow to recover because companies don’t want to put their workers in harm’s way. Videoconferencing has also proven very effective.
FINSUM: There is likely to be a big clearing out of weaker airlines and several years of losses/less profit for larger ones.
The Paycheck Protection Program landscape has been beyond challenging for small business owners. According to COVID Loan Tracker, as of April 30th, only 10.2% of small business owners report actually receiving PPP loans. That compares to the 30% that say they have already received “approval” for the loan by the SBA. That is a huge lag when you are trying to pay employees.
However, for some, that is not even the biggest issue, as just applying itself is a major headache. Not only are the forms one must submit difficult, but many banks won’t let you apply if you are not a customer, so many are stuck in seemingly hopeless queues at giant banks. With that mind, below is a list of sources where you can apply WITHOUT being a customer.
1. COVID Loan Tracker has partnered with Fundera to offer its own PPP app. Applying with online lending platforms like Fundera increases your chances of success because they are connected to a multitude of lenders and only place your application with banks ready to process them. CLT can see in its data that online lending platforms have had very high success rates in getting PPP loans approved.
APPLY FOR PPP with COVID Loan Tracker/Fundera
2. First State Bank: https://1st.bank/ppp/
3. Banc First: https://www.bancfirst.bank/cares/ppp-apply
4. Eastern Bank: https://www.easternbank.com/ppp-request
5. People’s Bank and Trust: https://www.peoples.bank/ppp
6. TCF Bank: https://commercial.tcfbank.com/sbappp/s/application?
COVID Loan Tracker was started by small business owners Duncan and Rita MacDonald-Korth to help their fellow small business owners understand where PPP and EIDL money is flowing. We are empowering the business community and journalists with the data they need to keep the government accountable.
(New York)
In a stat that should absolutely terrify small broker-dealers, a new survey says that for small firms, Reg BI compliance may cost a large portion of your revenue every year. According to the National Society of Compliance Professionals, a small firm with $500,000 in net capital will need to pay $60,000 a year to comply with the new rule. Bigger firms have high costs too—Raymond James will spend $20m up front, and then another $5m per year to comply.
FINSUM: $60,000 a year is a lot of cost to bear for smaller firms, especially because this regulation does not expand business opportunities and will likely only shrink revenue for many.
(Chicago)
The muni market is at an interesting crossroads. There have been big fears that the current lockdown might be a huge negative for muni credits. The lockdown not only raises costs, but it constrains tax revenue at the same time. On its own, this is a big threat. However, the Fed has set up a liquidity facility particularly for states and municipalities to borrow, which is a major help. That said, analysts say some credits will be excluded. The problem is that the Fed has put limits on the size of cities and counties able to participate, as well as fairly onerous language, such as municipalities having to promise that they cannot “secure adequate credit accommodations from other banking institutions”.
FINSUM: The Fed’s restrictions on this program are surely going to constrain its efficacy. So, on the whole this seems like good news, but not as good as investors would like.
(New York)
The job losses keep coming week over week. Thursday morning has become a repetitive and gloomy event as millions of job losses hit the tape when weekly jobless claims are released. This morning the figure was 3.3m. That number means the total figure is now over 30m jobs lost in the last six weeks. The fastest drop in history by a gigantic margin. What is even more troubling is that the data underrepresents the true figure, as call centers have been unable to cope with the demand and thus have been underreporting true figures.
FINSUM: The job loss figures are absolutely staggering. California is paying $1bn in jobless insurance per day. We think the market is underestimating how deep of a recession this hit to consumer spending might represent.
COVID Loan Tracker was founded by small business owners to help fellow entrepreneurs understand when their PPP and EIDL loans will be paid. The SBA has provided very poor leadership and information, and the need for real data about when loans are actually being disbursed has never been higher. Please help yourself and fellow small business owners by filling out our survey so we can all understand when we will get our loans.
FILL OUT THE SURVEY TO HELP SMALL BUSINESS OWNERS
The SBA has been very short on details throughout the Paycheck Protection Program. While they have released “approval” numbers, there is no data on how many loans have actually been disbursed. If you are a small business owner, approval means nothing and disbursement means everything—you cannot pay employees with an approval, you need cash. With that min mind, COVID Loan Tracker has launched live stats which track the disbursement rate of PPP loans right on its home page.
You can instantly see what percent of loans have been disbursed, the median processing time, the total volume of loans processed, the median size of loan, the median employees of successful applicants and more. For a deeper dive, view the DATA page, which includes more in-depth charting.
(New York)
So who is going to benefit most in the inevitable reopening of the economy? It is a tricky question to sort out. The most obvious companies are already seeing very stretched valuations, so those probably aren’t a good buy. Accordingly, here are some interesting names to look at in a category Goldman Sachs is calling “quality-at-a-reasonable-price”: Texas Instruments, Facebook, Mastercard, Alphabet, Home Depot, Ross Stores, Colgate-Palmolive.
FINSUM: Nice range of names. On the tech side, we love Facebook and Google. They are going to make more and more money as this lockdown accelerates the shift to ecommerce. On the retail side, discount stores like Ross seem like a good bet.