Displaying items by tag: Goldman Sachs
Special purpose acquisition vehicles (Spacs) have been one of the go-to alternatives for high-income investors in the last year, but for Goldman Sachs that could be changing. The SEC is proposing reforms to Spacs in order to improve transparency and align with traditional investments. Goldman will pause their Spac offerings in response. GS was one of the largest underwriters for Spacs in 2021 and raised almost $16 billion. This isn’t expected to be an isolated event for GS, other Wall Street firms are expected to follow suit as regulation will make these less attractive ventures.
Finsum: Biden’s SEC has been a not-so-quiet regulator when it comes to alternatives where they are quickly expanding scope to come down on these sub-industries
Goldman Sachs put out its views on the market’s volatility and how to handle it. The bank is not bullish on markets but thinks there are some very good stocks to help weather the storm. Unsurprisingly, Goldman says investors should buy stable stocks to help get through the turbulence, as such hum-drum stocks look like they have room to run. "Stable stocks also trade with undemanding valuations, supporting the likelihood that they will outperform if the macro environment grows increasingly challenging. Stocks with stable share prices and stable earnings growth generally trade with a valuation premium relative to more volatile peers and to the typical S&P 500 stock. However, relative valuations today are much lower than they have generally been during the last few years."
FINSUM: This is essentially a low-vol, value play, and that makes perfect sense right now. Very stable companies are likely to get through the economic upheaval better than their peers, so on a relative basis they should outperform.
Goldman Sachs released their latest economic forecast and predict the U.S. will grow at its second-highest rate in over 15 years. The 3.1% prediction would only be outpaced by the K-shaped recovery in 2021. Moreover, they said there is a lower risk of a recession in the next year than the rest of Wall Street with about a 15% chance. Attributing much of the inflation to supply chain issues, Goldman seems to be leaning on the latest core PCE inflation numbers that the Fed cares most about which were on the decline. The biggest ongoing risks to the world economy are China and the continuing Russia-Ukraine war.
Finsum: Goldman believes the Fed can thread the needle and hit the soft landing that many say is impossible, time will tell if they can.
Goldman raised the odds of a recession to over one-third in the next two years. The tightening cycle and rate hikes are causing waves in markets and the Fed could bump the Federal Funds Rate eight times this year. Overall economic health in the G10 helps mitigate the possibility of a recession, but it's still a possibility. Experts are saying that the Fed has a narrow path for a soft landing if they want inflation to come down to 2% and keep unemployment from rising. There are signs that the economy is beginning to weaken as consumer confidence is wavering. Still, the stock market doesn’t seem to pricing in a recession, however, the experts on Wallstreet and financial services are beginning to prepare.
Finsum: Look to the yield curve for recession predictions its the best sign and its beginning to warn investors.
Goldman told their investors that their best-case scenario for stocks had the S&P closing 2022 at 4,700, which might mean a 4% increase through the end of the year, but it would still finish below 2021’s close of 4,766. However, their worst-case scenario is very dower and predicts equities tumbling 21%. This scenario has the U.S. falling into a recession. Recession probability is higher than normal right now too as the US saw a 2-and 10-year yield curve investigation which has been the strongest indicator of a recession since the Great Depression.
Finsum: We wouldn’t pick a fight with the yield curve however, there is substantially more inflation pressure in this yield curve than in the previous ones reducing the probability of a recession.