Quantitative easing was the process of flooding the market with money in exchange for buying up long-term government debt and MBS; quantitative tightening was coined by Citigroup in order to describe the unwinding of this process. Goldman Sachs says this is causing increased volatility and sapping liquidity out of the treasury market. This QT could come with an abundance of arbitrage opportunities particularly in U.S. interest rate markets. Additionally, Goldman says QT will widen the gaps in new and old securities and narrow treasury yields and swap rates. F

INSUM: The treasury market is ripe for turmoil with the upcoming rate hike in March.

2021 was, without a doubt, the year of ESG Investing, but 2022 could shape up much differently as the SEC is turning its attention to ESG. There has been a wide amount of attention being given ‘greenwashing’ where companies get favorable ESG ratings despite subpar ESG performance. This is an area the SEC is warning investors about; conflicts of interest could incentivize better scores than are necessarily deserving. These issues were core to the 2008 financial crisis and are at play once again. Also, the SEC is concerned that the following ESG factors may cause a divergence from traditional methods which coil weaken the overall financial system.

FINSUM: A crackdown by the SEC might be enough to spoil the ESG party and could reveal it as the next financial bubble.

The pandemic affected the economy in a variety of different ways, but combinations of unemployment and work from strategies caused a mass exodus from major American cities and New York has been no exception. However, UBS Group AG says that is about to change. They are recommending investments into REITs, e-commerce ETFs, and fintech/smart mobility in order to be a part of the comeback. A combination of higher vaccination rates and more tolerance for state and local governments to avoid shutdowns will help spur New York's comeback. They particularly cite Manhattan’s REITs for having a fruitful future.

FINSUM: More jobs than ever have moved fully remote and it's questionable whether the city lifestyle will be as appealing if it's not necessarily a requirement.

Sure the Fed is beginning to taper, and with that comes rising interest rates. However, for the end of 2021, it was the near-zero interest rates that pushed investors out of fixed-rate annuities, and into variable index annuities and RILAs. Fixed-rate annuity sales plummeted in the final quarter while the aforementioned variable products all grew by 10%. Sales in annuities grew by a staggering 16% in 2021, however, a lot of that growth was generated by a much lower 2020 due to the pandemic. Investors will look to shift back into fixed-rate products if rates begin to normalize or hit higher historical levels.

FINSUM: Look for fixed-rate annuities to make a come back in later 2022 because as interest rate hikes are coming and investors will capitalize on relatively higher real rates.

The fixed income ETF market took a hit in 2020, and it's been a very slow recovery. Still, active funds outperformed during this time period, and that trend could continue into 2022. A stand-out active bond ETF to consider is Fidelity Total Bond ETF. it’s seen stellar performance when compared to its peers and its managers are committed to ensuring liquidity. Another ETF to watch out for is Pimco enhanced Short Maturity Active ETF. This fund is more centered around stability and security with less risky management. However, avoiding high yield corporate debt and currency risk these factors can make it a safer alternative in the upcoming cycles.

FINSUM: Shorter duration active bond ETFs are really important to consider right now because they mitigate the single biggest risk that exists in bond markets: rising rates.

Fidelity made a splash with its announcement of a $5,000 minimum direct indexing product a couple of weeks ago, and there has been a rush by Vanguard, JPMorgan, and BlackRock to acquire direct indexing firms. Goldman has been a long-time investor provider of direct indexing services, in fact over 20 years ago. Goldman specialized in wealthier clients with a minimum investment of $250,000. Goldman offers software tools for clients to use to add and drop stocks from indices. Most of the time they do this for tax purposes but sometimes clients customize by dropping equity sinners like fossil fuels or prisons. Goldman's direct indexing is a form of active management with higher fees than passive funds, but certainly more futures.

FINSUM: The advent of direct indexing for all will be an interesting follow as lower minimums become the new norm.

The hedge fund universe is getting a facelift. It appears the old days of strategic macro or a single quant visionary are a distant memory. Most funds are pouring money into swathes of teams throwing new money at multistrategy. Moreover, it appears clients are increasingly okay with higher fees in exchange for access to a wider range of investments particularly those in more unconventional areas: currency trading, precious metals, and private equity. Funds like Citadel have seen their multi-strategy departments multiply, and it's one of the fastest and near only ways for hedge funds to grow. Multi-strategy has grown 50 percentage points faster than the rest of the industry since 2014Q1.

FINSUM: Diversity is the name of the game and it appears investors are turning to hedge funds to channel funds into a wider net than ever before.

David Kostin, a strategist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., took a bearish tilt on U.S. stocks worrying about risks that may be on the road ahead. Goldman is far from the only bear on Wallstreet, Michael Wilson of Morgan Stanley says that the fair value of the S&P 500 is closer to 4,000. This would be a 10% downturn in the S&P if fully realized. Goldman isn’t that pessimistic but if real U.S. treasury yields rise 60 basis points then that will be their baseline. The median forecast is still quite positive for the S&P 500 by the end of the year with a target price close to around 5,100. However, Wallstreet says the antidote is to focus on quality and energy stocks.

FINSUM: Wall street is forgetting how bad sustained realized inflation will be for the market; it's without a doubt the biggest risk, because companies are used to operating with systematic sub 2% inflation.

Oil prices rose closed higher on Monday to cap off big January, in fact it was the largest monthly gain in the last year. West Texas Crude rose to $88.15 a barrel and the sixth straight weekly gain. Fueling the rising prices are the rising tensions on the border of Ukraine and Russia which seem on the brink of war. Sure, OPEC has supposedly ramped up production by 400,000 barrels a day since August, and however, they have once again underperformed in output in January. While the continued on paper output is expected to be approved in the upcoming meeting the fact is the supply is not moving the needle.

FINSUM: The factors pushing oil prices higher are here to stay, and most likely not all priced in, it could be a big bull market for traditional energy in H1 2022.

Macro factors are flummoxing the bond market and a combination of rising inflation and higher interest rate forecasts are crushing bottom lines. However, now is a great time to consider the future tax bill. Rarely can investors see the future, but the Fed is being about as explicit as possible about hiking rates multiple times this year. This means as yields creep up, bond prices will fall in various segments of the bond market. This is an opportune time to consider cutting ties with bonds and realizing the losses you have because it will be over a month before investors will want to jump back in and they can harvest the losses for the end of the year. FINSUM: Most investors have been looking to active funds and shorter duration to minimize inflation risk, but tax-loss harvesting is a nice way to take advantage of rising yields.