Inflation is picking up as PCE and CPI numbers are setting decade-long records, and the Fed is rapidly trying to regain control. The American people are beginning to show signs of angst as 65% of American’s say that Biden’s admin has not put enough attention on handling inflation and almost 60% say the same thing about the economy. This comes a swathe of low approval rating numbers come in where he has fallen almost 20 percentage points all the way down to the low 40’s. Overall about half of Americans say they feel frustrated and disappointed in the Biden admin. Biden’s focus has been on a series of regulatory and economic-centered packages, and many American’s don’t feel he is focusing on the issues they ‘don’t care about’.

FINSUM: Biden should stop pushing for another big fiscal package immediately if he has any hopes of reigning in inflation in 2022.

Wells Fargo has been one of the dominant figures trying to improve advisor headcount and it looks as though some of those efforts are paying off. Steven Tahn is moving from JPMorgan, where he has been since 2012, and bringing $2 million in GCD as well. Wells has had a series of declines for the last couple of years and has fallen short of targets when it comes to recruiting and retention. However, signs of improvement are there and their series of penalties and bonuses for client retention could be starting to pay off.

FINSUM: We’ll be keeping our eyes on the biggest changes in recruiting and retention in 2022 among financial advisory firms.

The bond market blues have been difficult as rising rates have started to really deflate a lot of funds. However, active bond funds have had an edge because not been pegged to indices they have freely navigated to localized emerging market debt. From HSBC to BNP many of the largest funds are buying up localized EM debt because many of these countries’ central banks tightened monetary policy last year and the rate hikes are already built-in. So as bond prices go down in the U.S. and inflation risk remains high, hawkish central banks in Russia, South Africa, Indonesia, China, and South Korea have all soured because localized currency means higher real payout and with relatively lofty interest rates the funds have a more promising horizon.

FINSUM: 12-Months ago the U.S. was looking at Emerging Markets as crazy for tightening the belt too quickly, but now these emerging markets are ahead of inflation and their bonds are soaring.

The Biden Admin hasn’t been shy about wanting to tighten the regulatory belt on Wallstreet and the financial world, and another step is being taken. The SEC is considering changing the disclosure rules when it comes to acquisitions of public companies by hedge funds. Currently, HFs have a 10-day buying period to which the public doesn’t have to be made aware of a purchase. Chairman Gensler is making it clear they are eying tighter rules when it comes to disclosure. The current rules are over 50 years old and were meant to bring more information symmetry between the public and private investors. The SEC is looking to increase transparency and give the public more time to adjust.

FINSUM: This will definitely give the public an advantage, but we’ll see how the SEC votes when push comes to shove.

Fidelity is about to take direct indexing to a whole new level. The asset manager/custodian/broker-dealer is launching its new Fidelity managed FidFolios product, which is a retail-focused direct indexing suite with only a $5,000 minimum and a 0.40% fee. According to Think Advisor “The Fidelity Managed FidFolios combines direct indexing with fractional share trading, which allows clients to allocate assets among multiple positions based on dollar amount rather than share size”. Morningstar gives context to the launch, saying “This is the most mainstream form of direct indexing from a most mainline asset management and provider of investor services seen to date”.

FINSUM: Direct indexing is a heated battleground for asset managers right now, with Fidelity, Vanguard and others in the mix. This seems like a big step.

Advisors need to make sure their clients are paying heed to their crypto returns as they focus on tax loss harvesting. In the past, many investors “flew under the radar” with their crypto returns, but the IRS is now focused on the issue. Some clients may have major gains that they need to report. The IRS considers crypto to be property, which means investor have to pay taxes on their profits.

FINSUM: Despite how the market looks now, stocks had a great year in 2021, and combined with some potentially big crypto wins, there is a lot of capital gains to offset with tax loss harvesting.

If the treasury market isn’t upside down it’s certainly moving there. Yields are rising which means prices are falling. The worst part is with inflation picking up there is a lot of room to move in longer-term treasury bonds. So where should investors turn to? Fallen angel bonds and their associated funds. Fallen angels are investment-grade bonds that have been recently downgraded to junk status. The biggest benefactor is that these relatively riskier bonds have a way higher return but there is less interest rate pass-through. That means as the Fed begins to strangle the government bond market the lower-grade corporate bonds won’t feel much of the pain. Many of these corporations have relatively strong balance sheets and the risk is overblown, so profits can recover quickly.

FINSUM: The fallen angel fixed income ETF market has an incredible yield advantage, and there is so much fiscal and monetary support that the risk is probably smaller than the yields are saying.

Income investors are flummoxed by the turbulent bond market and many are left wondering what to do. Sure dividend stocks might be an okay option but for those closer to retirement times are too turbulent to rely on them. Instead, rather than sinking your teeth into longer-term bonds with so much interest rate uncertainty, investors should ladder or stagger their fixed rate annuities. Sequencing can allow you to fight the current inflation with better yields than bonds and CDs with more security than equity markets. Additionally, laddering can allow you to be ready to pull out in case bond yields rise to provide more income and on top of that get in at a lower price.

FINSUM: Sure short-run annuities have less return than an ultra-long option but if interest rates pick up you won’t be hung out to dry.

David Booth’s Dimensional Advisors hasn’t been a part of the active ETF market for long in fact just a meager 14 months, but that hasn’t stopped it from rising to the top of the active market. Since last November they have rocketed to over $46 billion in active assets. Overall active management is growing rapidly and going to be a trillion-dollar trend of converting mutuals to ETF’s. However, Dimensional’s newly launched active fixed-income is flying off the shelves with nearly $1 billion in assets since their inception in November. While the lion’s share has been converted, this fixed-income segment is among some of the fastest pure growth in the fixed income ETF market.

FINSUM: Within the ETF segment, active ETFs have been growing strongly, and this is at the forefront of a new trend.

Goldman and many other Forecasters have upped their projections for the number of rate hikes in 2022, but most are calling for a timid four in order for the fed to better combat inflation. CEO of JPMorgan Dimon, however, sees a much more aggressive Fed. Dimon says the Fed will hike rates six or seven times in 2022, which would bring the baseline FFR up to a whopping 2%. Dimon says 200 basis points used to be an overnight adventure for the Fed during the Volcker administration. Despite these wildly hawkish projections Dimon still sees the fed threading the needle and maintaining a balanced growth path while fighting inflation. Others called Dimon’s projections irresponsible and said the market would suffer greatly for hikes that severe.

FINSUM: There is no way the Fed could hike rates 2% in 2022 and maintain a balanced growth path, however, the Powell Fed bringing inflation back down and not taking the economy is still the most likely outcome, just not under seven rate hikes.