Bond yields have been on a rollercoaster and the market seems to be having trouble making up its mind about the direction. On the one hand investors are fearful over Fed rate hikes and, increasingly, how soaring oil prices will drive up inflation. On the other hand, there is an element of anxiety that the war in Ukraine might scuttle global growth, which would point towards lower yields in the future. Perhaps the worst outcome though is both: stagflation.

FINSUM: In our view, the whipsawing of yields is misguided. Oil is not a big enough component of the economy to cause inflation to spin out of control and if you compare the macro outlook of today to three weeks ago, it is clearly more bearish. Thus, we think yields will trend downward so long as this conflict continues.

Model portfolios have been a hot topic with advisors and asset managers over the last couple years. Models tend to have nice benefits for both advisors and fund providers as they save advisors time gather up assets for managers. To back this up a new survey by Escalent shows that models are growing in popularity. Models are growing in number and in assets but they are primarily expanding among a small group of advisor power users. 4 out of 5 advisors say they don’t plan to expand their model use in the near term. The power users on the other hand say they love models because they free up their time to grow their client base and spend time on other planning.

FINSUM: Models are a major opportunity for advisors since they can outsource a very time consuming task—portfolio construction—thus freeing time and capacity to take on more clients.

2021 was an all-time year for active fixed income launches, and 2022 is looking to continue that pace. Capital Group just debuted another active fixed income ETF to capitalize on this financial trend. The Capital Group Core Plus Income ETF (CGCP) will seek a higher income return for a traditional bond fund and really seek to maximize total return. With a wide swath of debt available in their targets, they can invest over a third in below investment grade securities. This launch comes amid 5 other active equity fund launches for Capital Group. Overall investors are looking for more alpha return in their portfolios and are looking to active management to find it.

Finsum: Macro factors are pushing more investors into active bond funds, with increased interest and inflation risk core analysis is more effective than ever in fixed income.

Financial markets are extremely volatile as of late and that's putting it lightly, but REITs might be perfectly insulated at this moment and a great option. One of the largest sources of volatility is Russia and Ukraine but real estate is a local business and a solid option for those looking to alternatives. Another source of market risk is inflation however, real estate generally benefits from inflation. House prices outpace it and fixed-rate financing means debtors pay back less over time. Real estate also has leased on a long-term basis and insulted to most short-term shocks, and is a safe haven from typical equity volatility. Finally, if more turmoil suppresses interest rates then this will increase demand for real estate moving forward.

Finsum: We see the huge outperformance potential for real estate because of how uncorrelated the rate of return is with the rest of the markets right now.

Goldman Sachs swiftly raised its one-month projection for Brent to $115 a barrel, a $20 price increase from their previous projection. Not only that they say there are still lots of upside risks if there is further disruption or escalation. The only thing that could hold higher oil prices off would be a complete deterioration of demand by the US and Western Europe. More sanctions are upcoming from the west as Russian banks will be banned from SWIFT payment systems. Commodities are also facing higher price pressures with both threats to payment methods for Russian goods and restrictions to Russian commodities to the wider West. On top of all of this shale supply will fail to compensate for the current demand and OPEC+ will have to step in if there is to be any relief in oil prices.

Finsum: This is a good time to by energy bonds as payment streams will surely be in supply with higher gas prices.

Some major industry lawyers think the DOL is poised to issue the newest fiduciary rule in short order. Bradford P. Campbell, partner at Faegre Drinker Biddle & Reath says that the new rule will be coming this Spring. The new rule is a long-time coming if you consider that they began working on it when Biden took office well over a year ago. According to Campbell, that makes sense, "That's because the issues are hard. To their credit, they're spending a lot of time meeting with people and discussing the issues. I think DOL is just taking time to do the rule as best they can". According to Fred Reish, another partner at the firm, "I've heard from people that they're actually working very hard on it right now ... So it's not like it's been set aside on the top of a desk until somebody gets confirmed".

FINSUM: This would be a big move by the DOL and is likely to catch advisors unaware as with all the volatility this year, this has not been high on the overall wealth management radar.

Wealth technology is rapidly changing, and the landscape could be very different in the next 30 years. Princeton Economist Burton Malkiel said that a combination of the ‘democratization of investing’ and technology is pushing down fees and cutting costs. Overall he sees wealthfronts and betterments taking center stage, which include products like direct indexing. These practices not only help with tax management and rebalancing but they have lower costs than traditional active management. This sort of investment strategy will only grow as wealth management and financial management converge and FinTech companies change the way industry stalwarts operate.

FINSUM: Direct/custom indexing is one of the most interesting products because of the cheaper hybrid setup that really integrates technology to make management easier. 

Europe has been the dominant authority in shaping ESG guidelines around the globe, however, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is bringing weapons to the forefront of ESG labeling. The bloc is redefining its ESG rules and the no-brainers include rules on gender pay equity, humane supply chains, and banning cigarettes and goods produced from forced labor. While there is hot debate on weapons German defense lobby group BDSV is pushing hard for the case as to why weapons are part of ESG. They are making the case that a strong defense is critical to the governance component of ESG. There is a willingness to hear these arguments by ESG labelers and it is being put under fair consideration.

FINSUM: Euro area defense companies have had a huge boost in the last couple of weeks and securing ESG financing could be pivotal to their future.

Wells Fargo has employed a number of strategies in both advisor recruiting and retention but is still losing teams. Recently Stratos Wealth Holdings added Jason Howerd, Shane Kunz, and Chad Horne who oversaw $1billion at Wells before their move. It was the additional resources and financial software that were key drivers in their decision-making process. LPL’s affiliate Gladstone Wealth Partners also added nearly a half dozen advisors from Wells, with well over $400 million in AUM. Overall Gladstone has seen strong growth already in 2022 adding 20 advisors in the first two months.

FINSUM: It appears technology and tools are a growing part of the decisions advisors are considering when transitioning between financial firms.

Inflation and interest rate risks are two of the most prominent risks in the economy, and they are the reason so many are fleeing traditional fixed income. One place many investors are turning is to annuities, but how does interest rate risk affect annuities? For fixed annuities appreciating rates mean investors can get a better payout with the same premium and generally expand the offerings. For variable annuities, it's trickier as they are more tied to equity markets. If the Fed hikes too aggressively and markets respond adversely this could hurt variable rate products but if the stock market stays steady they won’t be under much pressure. As an income value proposition generally they both perform better than bonds in raising rates because higher yields (inflation and interest rates both moving) suppress bond prices directly.

FINSUM: Annuities have a lot of value in rising rates environments as an income product especially compared to government securities and CDs.