FINSUM
(San Francisco)
Facebook had an absolutely historic plunge last week, losing $120 bn of market cap in an afternoon. It has not fared so well since either, as many of its tech brethren have also seen big losses (like Twitter and Netflix). There are also mounting fears about a fundamentally darker future given the scandals and controversies it has become involved in. All that said, the stock still looks like a buying opportunity, at least according to some Wall Street analysts. The key to playing the company is not to wait for signs of margins and revenue stability. “Many investors prefer to wait for the appearance of margin stability … We understand this, but stocks tend to bottom and recover well ahead of margins and trade at much higher multiples when they do”, says a stock analyst.
FINSUM: Investors really need to contextualize this loss. Revenue growth rates came in 1% below expectations, leading to a massive loss. We think there is a good buying opportunity here.
New York)
Fidelity made history this week by introducing the first zero fee funds, which will track very broad self-indexed markets. Fidelity’s move is somewhat of a ploy, and definitely a demonstration of scale, as the company has many ways to profit from a customer once it has them in the door. But don’t be fooled, as fees aren’t everything. In fact, there are significant differences in performance even between index trackers of the same benchmark, like the S&P 500, and the differences between them can add up to a whole lot more than the difference in fees. For instance, Schwab and Vanguard already have broad index trackers at 3 and 6 basis points of fees, so hardly a big difference to zero, especially if their performance is better.
FINSUM: “Zero” definitely changes things, but once you are in the sub-15 bp fee category, performance is going to make a bigger difference than fees.
(Portland)
Retail and consumer stocks have been all over the map over the last couple of years. With digital disruption happening across the industry and consumer tastes changing, it is a hard space to figure out. However, an old stalwart looks like a good pick right now—Nike. The company has had its ups and downs over the last few years as it popularity ebbed, but it is back in a big way with a new distribution model of going direct-to-consumer. Morgan Stanley sums up the company this way, saying it is “positioned to take share in the high-growth, global activewear market as well as increase profitability, which should make it one of the highest growth consumer names and one of the few to benefit from the shift to e-commerce”.
FINSUM: We have been saying for over a year that Nike would prove to be a good bet. It had a couple years of competing poorly with Adidas and Under Armor, but it seems to be back with a bang.
(New York)
Boom looks ready to turn to bust in the real estate market. While those paying attention will already know that commercial real estate looks past its peak, and residential real estate has just started to show signs of weakness, what US investors may not realize is that the phenomenon is global, and that fact is more important than ever. Because of the rise of the global wealthy and their transient lifestyles, global real estate markets have become more correlated, and that means additional bad news for US home prices. All across the world, from London, to Sydney, to Beijing, to New York, urban home prices are weakening as inventories rise and the sector switches from a seller’s to a buyer’s market.
FINSUM: The real estate market used to be less correlated, but the huge boom in urban real estate over the last decade means that all areas will probably come down together too. To recap, US home purchases have been falling at the same time as inventories have finally begun rising. It seems like a rough period is coming.
(Boston)
The moment that many asset managers have been dreading has finally arrived. Fidelity announced yesterday that it was slashing prices on many of its funds, and crucially, offering two new index mutual funds with no fees and no minimums. Thus, the Rubicon has finally been crossed—the first broad index funds with zero fees, and no minimums. Many top asset management stocks fell considerably on the news. Remember that asset managers can still make money on funds with zero fees—through stock lending—but they need considerable scale to make that money meaningful.
FINSUM: It was only a matter of time before this happened. We expect Vanguard will follow suit quite soon, as will BlackRock, as lower fees have been by far the biggest selling point in the market for years.
(New York)
Dividend stocks usually don’t fare as well in periods of rising yields, but guess what, yields have been largely paused for some time. Further, investors may be wise to stay away from tech for awhile as it seems the sector is going through a reckoning. Well, interestingly, the famed Dividend Aristocrats—a group of companies who have raised their dividends for 25 straight years—has just one tech company in it, ADP, the payroll processor, so it is a very good way to earn income and hideout from the tech turmoil. Furthermore, and somewhat surprisingly, the average P/E ratio of the group is 18.1x, below the S&P 500’s average of 18.8x.
FINSUM: This seems like a nice stable group to buy into, and the ever rising dividends provide a nice cushion for any potential losses.
(New York)
Those hoping the current turmoil in the technology sector may turn around the fate of gold will be upset by new data. Gold has suffered its worst start to a year in almost a decade despite the fact that the US equity market was in a correction for much of it. Now, economic data shows that demand for the shiny metal is at its lowest since 2009. The big drop in drop demand did not stem from industry, but instead from investment markets, with ETFs buying ~60% less gold in the last year than the year prior.
FINSUM: Gold is in a tough and interesting spot. On the one hand, it is easy to see why rising rates have depressed gold prices. But on the other, it seems gold have should have benefitted from all the geopolitical and market instability of this year.
(Washington)
There is a lot of excitement right now about the possibility of the new capital gains tax cut. The Treasury is looking into whether to effectively cut the capital gains tax rate by allowing investors to account for inflation when reporting their gains. The cut is estimated to amount to $100 bn over the next decade. However, the Treasury is uncertain if it has the authority to make the cuts on its own, a move it would undertake by simply redefining the meaning of “cost”.
FINSUM: So evidently the first Bush administration looked into this in the early 90s and decided that the Treasury did not have the legal authority to make this change on its own.
(New York)
Are you looking for high yielding stocks that also appear to have good upside? Look no further than this handful of picks. Market Watch has picked a group of stocks with solid dividends that are also seeing dividend hikes. This is a key feature to have not only as a way of offsetting any losses from rising rates, but also a means to drive price appreciation. All the names on the list have dividends of over 4% and have seen recent dividend hikes of 10%+. These stocks include CareTrust REIT, Six Flags Entertainment, AbbVie Inc, and Janus Henderson Group.
FINSUM: Dividend hikes have been rarer lately than one would expect given the good spell of earnings we have had. The reason why seems to be the prevalence of buybacks. All of which makes these shares unique.
(Washington)
The US broker community is currently growing increasingly concerned about the SEC’s new “Regulation Best Interest”. On top of anger over the rules governing the use of titles, brokers have become increasingly worried about a part of the SEC rule which essentially mirrors the DOL’s best interest contract exemption (BICE). The problem is that there are rules governing conflicts of interest that are very similar to the DOL’s, such as brokers having to take steps to resolve conflicts, and minimize compensation incentives for certain products. According to one lawyer representing brokerages, “We believe the commission should replace the DOL rule-based preamble provisions on mitigation and elimination of conflicts with a simple principles-based statement”.
FINSUM: When the rule was first debuted, the general industry reaction was positive. However, the more everyone has dug into it, the more stringent the opposition has become.