(New York)

Some of the best forward looking recession indicators are in the commodities markets. Because they are generally a gauge for demand in the economy, they indicate where things are headed. Well, one of the best—copper—which is utterly ubiquitous across the global economy, is flashing some very worrying signs. Copper has had a very rough summer, but it has been worsening lately despite better share prices. The commodity just hit its lowest price in over a year. China accounts for around 40% of global copper demand. One analyst summarized the situation, saying “Copper is widely considered to be a bellwether for the global economy and so a weak price is cause for concern”.

FINSUM: Copper is partly at the mercy of the big fears in emerging markets, but that does not seem to account for the extremity of the selloff. This does worry us.

(Istanbul)

A lot of investors are worried that the turmoil in Turkey could spark a global financial crisis. In particular, Turkey’s weak position could spread to European banks, letting the situation balloon from there. However, the reality is that such fears are overblown, according to a credit analyst. Europe’s banks are actually in a strong position and can absorb losses from Turkey, so there does not seem to be any contagion to spread. Turkey’s problems are largely self-inflicted and unique as well, so it is hard to see all EMs succumbing to the panic.

FINSUM: From an American investor’s standpoint, the Turkey situation should not be very concerning as it does not seem to have much direct relationship to the US economy or markets. Hence our shares rising while Europe’s are falling.

(New York)

Any investor will already know that Tesla is locked in an interesting and precarious situation. Elon Musk is apparently fixed on taking the company private, which has pushed its share price up, but the effort looks highly vulnerable, which could send things crashing back down. Add into the mix that the SEC is investigating the fact that Musk announced his intentions via Twitter, and you have a dangerous mix. Many are wondering when the SEC might decide if Musk broke the rules with his tweet, but the reality is that it may take some time for a judgment.

FINSUM: In our view the lack of a ruling on Musk’s tweet could mean this whole deal sits in limbo for some time.

(Washington)

The White House has been demanding that special counsel Robert Mueller wrap up his investigation into potential collusion with Russia by September 1st. However, the reality is that Mueller is under no obligation to do so and can continue his closed-door investigation up and through the November 6th elections. Bringing indictments near the election would also not violate Justice Department policy meant to deter using indictments to manipulate elections, according to current and former US officials.

FINSUM: We highly doubt Mueller will acquiesce to ending his investigation in the near-term, which means Trump may escalate the situation. Fireworks seem likely.

(New York)

Market breadth has not been very good this year. In fact, it has generally been terrible. Tech stocks have delivered virtually all the gains. However, one bright spot in this uneven landscape has been healthcare shares, and that seems likely to continue. According to Barron’s, “Positives in the sector include attractive valuations, upward earnings revisions, share buybacks, and policy tailwinds”. Drug price pressure is still a concern for pharma companies, but right now things look strong, with over 90% of companies in the sector beating earnings forecasts.

FINSUM: We will be honest in saying that we do not have much expertise in the sector, but demographics also seem to be a supportive factor for the long-term investor.

(New York)

One the biggest and most conservative asset managers on the street has just put out an ominous warning to investors. Vanguard has just told investors that a near term recession (by 2020) is looking more likely. The asset manager is worried about the flattening yield curve and rising credit risk for sub-investment grade bonds. Vanguard says the odds of a recession in the next six months are 10%, and 30-40% by the end of 2020. The comments are unusual for Vanguard, who has stayed positive on the economy and is usually very conservative in calling markets and the economy.

FINSUM: Our own view is that the chances of a recession by the end of 2020 are much higher than what Vanguard is calling for.

(Washington)

Any advisor will know that the SEC’s new Regulation Best Interest has been under serious fire for the last couple of months. While it initially had a relatively warm reception from industry, brokers have railed against it more recently. Now, state attorney generals are mounting a furious push. The AGs of 17 states have come together to denounce the rule and demand a revision that mirrors the standard laid out in the old DOL rule. Specifically, the groups wants Reg BI to hold broker-dealers to the same standard as RIAs.

FINSUM: The SEC probably won’t do anything about this now, but this sets the stage for a major legal challenge before the rule may actually be implemented.

(Istanbul)

Investors may be watching the markets anxiously, and with good reason. Turkey is in the middle of a full blown financial crisis, and the threat of it leaking into western markets via European banks seems tangible. Emerging market stocks are down 18% from their peak in January and there is pressure on other EMs like South Africa, China, Russia, and India. However, the worries over a full-scale emerging markets meltdown seem overdone, especially considering the economies of EMs are actually quite strong and healthy at the moment, which should keep things from falling into dire straits.

FINSUM: EMs currently have good currency reserves and many are running budget surpluses, so they are not entering this period of turmoil in weak shape.

(New York)

If you are a gold bull, this has been a really rough period. While gold has been weakening for years (relative to the market), the last several weeks has been particularly concerning. Despite all the turmoil in global markets that has come alongside Turkey’s financial crisis, gold just hit its weakest level since March 2017. Further, despite many panics in markets this year, gold has fallen 9% and has not gained from its reputation as a safe haven. The rising strength of the US Dollar has not helped gold’s prospects.

FINSUM: Gold is down to around $1,200 an ounce despite all that has happened this year. If the bear market had not been going on so long, it would almost seem like a buying opportunity, but rising rates and a rising Dollar are strong headwinds even if fundamentals changed.

(New York)

Elon musk’s tweet last week about planning to take Tesla private was met with much excitement, but also much incredulity. Many seemed to think the idea was just a pie in the sky plan with little chance of actually coming to fruition. However, the plan seems to be moving forward as Musk announced yesterday that he has hired Goldman Sachs and Silver Lake to advise the deal. Musk is apparently also working with the Saudi Arabian sovereign wealth fund to get the capital necessary to buyout the company, but is also seeking outside investors as well.

FINSUM: As the plan looks more and more concrete, the stock keeps rising towards the announced $420 buyout price.