(Washington)

The whole market has been waiting on today’s GDP report for weeks, and this morning it finally hit the tape. With so much anxiety about the possible impact of a trade war, coupled with the expectation that the tax cut gave the economy a big boost, it is hard to remember a time when a GDP report was more relevant. Well, the figure is in, and it is a winner—the US economy expanded at 4.1% in the second quarter.

FINSUM: This is a great number, but the issue is that it takes very little of the most recent developments—trade tensions—into a account because it is for the second quarter only. We imagine the third quarter GDP figure will be even more important.

(New York)

Anyone who owns or works for an RIA will probably be aware of the huge boom in M&A in the sector. There seem to be many willing buyers of RIAs at the moment and the acquisition terms for such deals have been getting increasingly sweet. However, within the apparent euphoria, make sure you don’t make a bad decision. For instance, some RIAs might be seeing offers with good valuations, but all in stock of the buyer. There have been a lot of unsolicited purchase offers, which may characterize “an unsophisticated, stupid buyer who is just trying to grab assets”, according to on managing partner at an RIA speaking at a Pershing industry conference. RIAs need to beware because “[Buyers] aren’t just overpaying but may also overpromise and not be able to deliver”.

FINSUM: We suppose the old mantra is best here— if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.

(New York)

How about some high growth and low risk stocks for your portfolio? Sounds too good to be true, but Barron’s has run a piece today highlighting the top picks of a midcap fund manager who is aiming for that profile. The idea of the Touchstone Mid Cap Growth Fund (TEGAX) is to find good growth at a reasonable price. The fund has returned 13.6% per year over the last five years. Their top holdings include: Worldpay, Pioneer Natural Resources, FleetCor Technologies, TransUnion, Tiffany, and Cooper.

FINSUM: These are some very diverse picks. Examining the fund’s methodology, we like their approach and suspect these stocks are worth a look.

(New York)

The US commercial and residential real estate markets have been headed in opposite directions for a little while now, with the former looking weak and the latter looking strong. However, new data suggests that US residential real estate now looks headed for its worst downturn in years. The market is suffering from heavy prices and rising rates, which are constraining buyers. Those realities are now starting to play out in the data, as the latest US market info shows that existing home sales dropped in June (for the third straight month), new home purchases are at their slowest pace in eight months, and inventory is finally starting to increase. Annual price gains in May were also their slowest in almost a year and a half.

FINSUM: It is still early days to predict a big downturn, but these three data points are a big warning sign. We are especially paying attention to rising inventory, as really tight supply has been the hallmark of the market for at least five years.

(New York)

Emerging markets have been on a wild ride this year, with many entering into bear markets. But what about EM debt? That market has faced headwinds as the US Dollar is strengthening on the back of expectations for higher rates. However, some bond fund managers really like EM debt right now. While USD denominated debt from countries like Argentina get a lot of the attention, local currency EM debt can be very rewarding. In Brazil and Mexico, for instance, local currency bonds are yielding 10% and 7%, respectively. Other countries with solid local currency debt are South Africa, India, and Indonesia.

FINSUM: So there seem to be two big risks here. One is the exchange rate risk, and the other is credit risk. That said, these yields do seem to be rewarding, and worthwhile if they are a small part of a portfolio.

(Detroit)

An absolute nightmare befell the auto sector yesterday. While the market has been increasingly concerned about the effect of Trump’s metal tariffs and the counter-tariffs from trading partners, yesterday’s meltdown was sparked by poor earnings. It started with GM and Fiat Chrysler, both of whom got walloped on weaker than expected earnings. Then Ford came in with an $11 bn restructuring plan that seemed to contradict the promised $25 bn of cuts it had previously announced. What was odd about the numbers is that they come when the economy is doing quite well. “To have a quarter like this is striking … Every time they turn over a rock, they find more problems”, says one auto market analyst.

FINSUM: Between looming tariffs and weak underlying sales, car companies seemed to be facing a definite reversal of fortunes after several years of good performance.

(New York)

Alongside rising rates and yields, accelerating dividends are a nice feature to have right now. The S&P 500’s dividend growth over the last five years has averaged 13.4%. However, every stock on this list has seen growth north of 20%. The five stocks, which come from quite varied sectors, includes UnitedHealth Group, AO Smith, Zoetis, Mastercard, and Nvidia.

FINSUM: The only catch for this group is that dividend yields, on average, are low, with UnitedHealth Group having the highest at 1.4%, well behind the average S&P 500 yield. The advantage, however, is that a stock with strongly rising dividends is more likely to see capital appreciation.

(San Francisco)

Yesterday was an absolutely monstrous one to be an investor in Facebook. In what will likely go down as a history-making day for the company, Facebook shares dropped a whopping 20% yesterday, equating to more than $100 bn of value lost. The huge losses were sparked by weaker than expected revenue growth as well as flat or falling user bases. That sent the stock down 7%. However, it was the guidance provided on a conference call that really spelled doom. The company’s CFO said that he expected weak revenue growth to continue, while costs were expected to rise 50-60% this year.

FINSUM: The big rise in costs is coming because Facebook is hiring 20,000 staff to increase cybersecurity. The need to do so does not bode well for the stock or the tech sector generally.

(New York)

The S&P 500 experienced a correction earlier this year, and since February, has been stuck in a rut. While the declines were not terribly deep, the doldrums were very long lasting. In fact, this was the longest correction (without a rebound or a fall into a bear market) since 1984. That meant the market was in correction for 115 straight sessions.

FINSUM: The market has finally regained some momentum, but it feels odd that stocks have been gaining in the face of largely negative trade war news. Then again, stocks love to climb a wall of worry.

(New York)

There have been a lot of fears about the junk bond market both over the last few years and in recent months. Many worry what a rising rate period would mean for the sector. However, the bigger worry might actually be a recession. Bank of America Merrill Lynch has recently put out a report analyzing the sector, and they highlight a potentially big worry. As many know, over the last decade, companies have gorged on BBB rated bonds (the lowest rung of investment grade), issuing trillions worth. However, the big risk is that in a recession, default rates will surge, profits will fall, and many of those bonds will be downgraded into junk status. When that occurs, many investments funds will be obligated to sell them because of mandates, which could cause a massive exodus and big losses.

FINSUM: The giant BBB market, which has been the superstar of the high yield sector since the Crisis, seems like it might be poised for a serious rough patch come the next recession.