Advisors need to make sure their clients are paying heed to their crypto returns as they focus on tax loss harvesting. In the past, many investors “flew under the radar” with their crypto returns, but the IRS is now focused on the issue. Some clients may have major gains that they need to report. The IRS considers crypto to be property, which means investor have to pay taxes on their profits.
FINSUM: Despite how the market looks now, stocks had a great year in 2021, and combined with some potentially big crypto wins, there is a lot of capital gains to offset with tax loss harvesting.
If the treasury market isn’t upside down it’s certainly moving there. Yields are rising which means prices are falling. The worst part is with inflation picking up there is a lot of room to move in longer-term treasury bonds. So where should investors turn to? Fallen angel bonds and their associated funds. Fallen angels are investment-grade bonds that have been recently downgraded to junk status. The biggest benefactor is that these relatively riskier bonds have a way higher return but there is less interest rate pass-through. That means as the Fed begins to strangle the government bond market the lower-grade corporate bonds won’t feel much of the pain. Many of these corporations have relatively strong balance sheets and the risk is overblown, so profits can recover quickly.
FINSUM: The fallen angel fixed income ETF market has an incredible yield advantage, and there is so much fiscal and monetary support that the risk is probably smaller than the yields are saying.
Income investors are flummoxed by the turbulent bond market and many are left wondering what to do. Sure dividend stocks might be an okay option but for those closer to retirement times are too turbulent to rely on them. Instead, rather than sinking your teeth into longer-term bonds with so much interest rate uncertainty, investors should ladder or stagger their fixed rate annuities. Sequencing can allow you to fight the current inflation with better yields than bonds and CDs with more security than equity markets. Additionally, laddering can allow you to be ready to pull out in case bond yields rise to provide more income and on top of that get in at a lower price.
FINSUM: Sure short-run annuities have less return than an ultra-long option but if interest rates pick up you won’t be hung out to dry.
David Booth’s Dimensional Advisors hasn’t been a part of the active ETF market for long in fact just a meager 14 months, but that hasn’t stopped it from rising to the top of the active market. Since last November they have rocketed to over $46 billion in active assets. Overall active management is growing rapidly and going to be a trillion-dollar trend of converting mutuals to ETF’s. However, Dimensional’s newly launched active fixed-income is flying off the shelves with nearly $1 billion in assets since their inception in November. While the lion’s share has been converted, this fixed-income segment is among some of the fastest pure growth in the fixed income ETF market.
FINSUM: Within the ETF segment, active ETFs have been growing strongly, and this is at the forefront of a new trend.
Goldman and many other Forecasters have upped their projections for the number of rate hikes in 2022, but most are calling for a timid four in order for the fed to better combat inflation. CEO of JPMorgan Dimon, however, sees a much more aggressive Fed. Dimon says the Fed will hike rates six or seven times in 2022, which would bring the baseline FFR up to a whopping 2%. Dimon says 200 basis points used to be an overnight adventure for the Fed during the Volcker administration. Despite these wildly hawkish projections Dimon still sees the fed threading the needle and maintaining a balanced growth path while fighting inflation. Others called Dimon’s projections irresponsible and said the market would suffer greatly for hikes that severe.
FINSUM: There is no way the Fed could hike rates 2% in 2022 and maintain a balanced growth path, however, the Powell Fed bringing inflation back down and not taking the economy is still the most likely outcome, just not under seven rate hikes.