Displaying items by tag: risk

Thursday, 28 March 2024 06:21

Blackrock: Bitcoin A Good Portfolio Diversifier

Robert Mitchnick, Blackrock’s digital asset lead, believes that bitcoin is more like ‘digital gold’ rather than a ‘risk-on’ asset, despite its strong correlation to equities in recent years. Throughout bitcoin’s existence, there has been a constant debate about its true nature. Some argue that bitcoin is like gold given that there is a fixed supply, which means that it should provide protection against inflation. 

While this may be true in theory, in reality, bitcoin has largely moved in the same direction as equities, which undermines the argument that it offers diversification. In 2022, bitcoin tumbled as the world dealt with the highest levels of inflation in decades. Notably, equities were also down 25% in 2022. In the following year, as equity markets made new highs, bitcoin also followed and made new highs as well. 

Despite this relationship, Mitchnik believes that historically, bitcoin has demonstrated very little correlation to stocks. He attributes the recent rally to excitement around the launch of bitcoin ETFs in the US. In terms of allocation, he recommends between 1 and 3% for investors to provide diversification and differentiated returns. The argument about bitcoin’s nature is germane for investors who want to understand whether it will make their portfolio more risky or more diversified. 


Finsum: There are two camps when it comes to bitcoin. One sees bitcoin as an asset that is closely correlated to equities; while the other believes that bitcoin is more like gold and can help diversify portfolios.

Published in Alternatives
Thursday, 28 March 2024 06:18

Who Should Utilize Buffer ETFs

Investors grappling with market uncertainty are exploring ways to manage risk effectively while staying invested; utilizing buffer strategies, which employ options to provide targeted downside protection, offers a solution by mitigating losses during market downturns while limiting upside potential.

 

 Accessing buffer strategies through ETFs simplifies the process, avoiding the complexities of managing options directly or the expense of structured notes. Buffer ETFs, managed by experienced professionals and offering intraday liquidity at a low expense ratio, present an accessible option for investors. 

 

Designed for long-term strategic allocation, these ETFs can be utilized by investors looking to reduce equity drawdown risk, seeking moderate growth, or exploring outcome-oriented strategies within their portfolios, thereby providing a flexible approach to risk management in uncertain markets.


Finsum: Buffer strategies seem to make the most sense when there is overall upside but potential for volatility, similar to our current macro landscape.

 

Published in Bonds: Total Market
Wednesday, 20 March 2024 04:53

Private Credit Opportunities Expanding

Apollo Global Management Inc. has launched a new private credit fund, initially offering no fees for the first year and halving fees for the subsequent year, with investments coming from Mubadala Investment Co. and other institutional investors. 

 

Structured as a business development company, it diverges from the norm by providing fee breaks, unlike many similar vehicles catering to retail and high net worth investors. Contributions from Mubadala and Apollo's affiliate amount to over $290 million, while the fund's assets total over $790 million, predominantly acquired through leverage. 

 

Named Middle Market Apollo Institutional Private Lending, the fund is an extension of the collaboration between Apollo and Mubadala, established in 2020, focusing on investments in US middle market companies, with a target allocation of 70% to 80% in loans. The fund's filing also stipulates a provision where Apollo would redistribute cash from sales or loan repayments to investors if it fails to double its investment commitments to $900 million within five years.


Finsum: Private credit could provide an uncorrelated return as macro uncertainty permeates markets.

Published in Bonds: Total Market

Lincoln Financial Group unveils the 1 Year S&P 500® Dual Trigger (Dual Trigger) account option for its fixed indexed annuities, offering growth potential in all market conditions with 100% downside protection. 

 

Consumer concerns about inflation, investment losses, and market volatility have driven demand for such products, with 61% of consumers seeking investments balancing growth and protection. With industry projections expecting fixed indexed annuity sales to reach nearly $100 billion in 2025, Lincoln Financials’ enhancements aim to simplify strategies, providing growth opportunities while safeguarding against volatility. 

 

Additionally, Lincoln introduces the 1 Year S&P 500® 10% Daily Risk Control Trigger for its OptiBlend® fixed indexed annuity, offering potential for higher trigger crediting rates in certain markets. With a commitment to helping investors protect their savings, Lincoln Financial expands its annuity product portfolio to offer clients more choices for building wealth and confidence in retirement, working with over 22,000 financial professionals in 2023 to provide new annuity contracts.


Finsum: The recent uptick in annuity products appears to be driven by demographic shifts and boosted demand. 

Published in Wealth Management
Friday, 15 March 2024 04:13

Is the Stock Market Rally Nearing Exhaustion?

2024 has seen the stock market make 17 closing, all-time highs. Despite this strength, many are noting some reasons to be cautious about equities due to some concerning developments under the surface.

 

In essence, the strong performance of the indexes and mega-cap technology stocks is masking hidden weakness. This is reflected in the Dow Jones Transportation Average failing to confirm the new highs of the Dow Jones Industrial Average which is a ‘non-conformation’ according to Dow Theory. Dow Theory warns that a new high by the Industrials but not by transportation stocks is prone to failure. Similarly, riskier parts of the market like high-yield bonds and high-beta stocks are also underperforming Treasuries and low volatility stocks, respectively. 

 

The leader of this bull market has been technology due to excitement around AI and strong earnings growth from leading tech companies. However, there are signs of exhaustion as the relative ratio of the S&P 500 tech sector has failed to confirm the breakout in the S&P 500. According to David Rosenberg, the founder and President of Rosenberg Research, “These were the most important stocks for the market, and no longer look to be in control.” He believes that the longer these measures fail to confirm the new highs in the S&P 500, the larger the risk of a reversal. 


Finsum: 2024 has been a strong year for the stock market with the S&P 500 making new highs. Yet, there are some signs that the rally may be nearing exhaustion. 

 

Category: Eq: Total Market 

Keywords: #S&P 500; #bull market; #tech; #equities; #risk; 

Published in Eq: Total Market
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