Displaying items by tag: fixed income

In an article for MarketWatch, Vivien Chen covered the decline in Treasury yields following the May FOMC meeting. Although the Fed did hike rates, investors were willing to look ahead as it seems increasingly likely that this was the final hike of the cycle. According to Fed fund futures, the market now expects the Fed to begin cutting rates in Q1 of next year.

Recent economic data which continues to show a weakening labor market, decelerating growth, and softening inflation also confirm this narrative. Additionally, many regional banks continue to struggle given the inverted yield curve which many fear could lead to a credit crunch.

At the FOMC press conference, Chair Jerome Powell continued to assess the inflation battle as being a “long way to go” and that the labor market remains “very tight”. Despite Powell’s hawkish tone, fixed income markets were stronger across the board. Odds for no change in the fed funds rate reached a 95% probability. Additionally, the market’s target for the year-end fed funds rate declined slightly to 4.25% which implies a reduction of 75 basis points. 

Finsum: Treasury yields are modestly lower since the Fed’s rate hike. Odds of a pause at the next meeting have also climbed higher.

In an article for Bloomberg, Ye Xie and Liz McCormick discussed how Vanguard’s fixed income ETFs have been major recipients of inflows as investors look to take advantage of higher yields and protect their portfolio from a potential recession later this year.

In March, the funds saw $26 billion of inflows due to the crises at Credit Suisse and Silicon Valley Bank. This was nearly more than last year’s cumulative $31 billion of inflows. 

It’s also an indication that Vanguard’s passive management and indexing strategies will take on even greater significance in the fixed income world as these funds keep growing. In total, Vanguard’s fixed income funds have over $1 trillion in assets. 

It also follows what has happened in equity markets, where passive funds have ballooned in size, and make up the bulk of inflows. In hindsight, the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent few years seem to have been the trigger for equity investors favoring passive funds over active ones due to the strong outperformance of indexes. 

Similarly, 2022 was the biggest rout for bonds in decades due to inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve. This also has led to investors rethinking allocations, and one outcome has been the growth of passive over active. 

Finsum: Similar to what happened in equities over the last decade, passive bond funds are starting to see the bulk of inflows.

In an article for VettaFi’s Modern Alpha channel, Nick Peters-Golden discussed the outperformance of active fixed income funds in the first quarter of 2023. The entire sector has had strong performance since the end of last year primarily due to decelerating inflation, rising recession odds, and the banking crisis. 

As a result, fixed income ETFs saw $52 billion of inflows in the first quarter which is more than 60% of the total $80 billion in ETF inflows. Within the fixed income ETF universe, active bond funds have outperformed as they have been able to take advantage of market volatility and concentrate on shorter-term maturities which have outperformed. 

One example is the Kingsbarn Tactical Bond ETF which invests across the credit and duration spectrum in global bond ETFs and Treasuries. This is an outperformer among active bond funds with a 6.2% return YTD. Another outperformer is the First Trust TCW Securitized Plus ETF which invests primarily in mortgage-backed securities that are comprised of private securities and government-sponsored debt. This fund is up 5.2% YTD. 

Finsum: Active fixed income funds have outperformed in 2023 and been the recipient of the bulk of ETF inflows.

In an article for iShares, Karen Veraa CFA discussed the opportunity in fixed income ETFs, following the selloff in bonds last year. She notes that assets migrated to the space as investors wanted to reduce risk in their portfolios while taking advantage of attractive yields. 

Due to the Federal Reserve’s low rate policies over the last decade, bonds were overvalued and offered paltry yields. This contributed to weakness in the asset class in 2022. But, conditions are turning more favorable as inflation has peaked, recession odds are climbing, and Fed fund futures showing increasing chances of a Fed easing cycle commencing sometime in the second-half of the year. 

While the crisis among regional banks is contributing to economic worries, the ‘flight to safety’ into bonds and fixed income ETFs was an indication that the asset class offers diversification benefits. 

Another reason to like fixed income ETFs is that opportunities to earn income are substantially higher. Between 2013 and 2021, the only place to earn more than 4% income was with riskier high-yield and emerging market debt. Now, over 70% of fixed income securities are yielding more than 4%. 

Finsum: Fixed income ETFs are particularly attractive at the moment given increasing economic worries and generous yields across the sector.

In an article for USNews, Tony Dong covered how fixed income funds can help investors reduce volatility in their portfolios while producing a steady income. These funds offer the benefits of bond ownership without the costs and complexity. And, it’s especially the case for fixed income classes where markets are less liquid, opaque, and hard to access such as municipal debt and corporate bonds.

These funds also offer benefits in terms of diversification that simply are not possible to replicate for non-institutional investors. The iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF is one of his picks as a top bond fund as it is extremely liquid and has very low costs at 0.03%. The fund holds over 10,000 government and high-quality corporate debt, while it pays a yield of 4.2%. 

Another option is the Nuveen Floating Rate Income Fund which is an actively managed bond fund. This fund offers higher returns as it tends to invest in shorter-term and lower-quality debt. It also has higher costs with an 0.71% annual expense ratio. 

However, active management does offer some benefits especially given recent volatility around rates given increasing levels of financial stress and expectations of a change in Fed policy. 

Finsum: Fixed income funds can help investors reduce volatility in their portfolios while generating a steady income.