Displaying items by tag: fixed income

Charles Schwab shared its midyear outlook for fixed income. It notes that the asset class has been unusually volatile despite not changing much in terms of fundamentals and monetary policy.  

In the second-half of the year, Schwab sees Treasuries gradually strengthening, particularly on the short-end of the curve. So far, longer-term Treasuries have started to outperform, while shorter-term notes have weakened due to the Fed’s continued hikes. 

However, the firm sees strength across the board in response to slowing inflation and the end of the Fed’s rate hikes due to a weakening global economy. While it anticipates a pause in Fed policy imminently, it believes that the next rate cut cycle will also quickly begin as rates at these levels are quite restrictive especially in an environment of lower inflation.

Further, Schwab believes that longer-term trends are also supportive of fixed income given that fiscal policy will be contractionary, the manufacturing sector is in a recession, wage growth is slowing, and key drivers of inflation such as food, used cars, and energy have also normalized. Loosening Fed policy and falling inflation will be strong tailwinds for fixed income. 

Finsum: Charles Schwab shared its second-half outlook for fixed income. Overall, the firm is bullish and believes that underlying trends of fiscal policy, monetary policy, and inflation are supportive.

Um, you might want to duck for cover.   Why? Well, because of the explosive growth experienced by the ETF industry, according to zacks.com.

 Against the backdrop of a burgeoning stock market, it’s gathering mucho assets. The fact that investors sunk about $200.6 billion in new assets into U.S.-listed ETFs in the first half of the year, didn’t exactly hurt.  

Pacing the field was U.S. fixed income ETFs with inflows of $86.7 billion, according to etf.com. Nipping at its heels was $52.9 billion in U.S. equity ETFs and $48.5 billion in international equity ETFs.

Meantime, almost assuredly considerably more on the money than many weather prognosticators, the macro outlook for core fixed income is thumbs up, according to sageadvisory.com. Over approaching quarters, attractive yield carry is tag teaming with peaking rates skews returns to the upside. Fed timing aside, market and dot plots each have rates much lower over the oncoming year or two. What’s more, yield carry looks as good as it has in 15 years.

In an article for SeekingAlpha, Principal Financial Group previews the third-quarter and lays out the opportunities and risks it sees in fixed income. Overall, the firm expects the asset class to have a modest tailwind given its expectations for a recession by the end of the year.

As evidence, Principal Financial cites the unprecedented tightening over the last 16 months, slowing economies all over the world, tightening credit standards, and the inverted yield curve. It believes that the next 2 hikes will be the Fed's last in this hiking cycle. 

However, the firm doesn’t believe the central bank will be successful in engineering a ‘soft landing’ despite this increasingly becoming the consensus position over the last couple of months. Instead, the firm anticipates a final lurch higher in yields with the breakout ultimately being rejected.

Amid this period of volatility and uncertainty, the firm believes that active funds are best positioned to take advantage of market conditions, and it sees the most upside in high-yield fixed income given that the firm’s base case is for a mild recession. 

Finsum: In Q3, Principal Financial Group sees upside for fixed income due to a softening economy, and it sees the most value in high-yield.

In an article for MarketWatch, Jamie Chisholm discusses whether stocks can still rally despite the recent surge in bond yields following a spate of positive economic data. Fixed income enjoyed strong performance for most of the first-half of the year, however the asset class gave up a portion of these gains in June as it became clear that the Fed was not done hiking rates given resilience in inflation data and the jobs market.

However, Chisholm warns that as yields get above these levels, they have a tendency to become a headwind for equities. He cites Mark Newton, the chief technical strategist at Fundstrat, who believes that bonds are due for a bout of strength. He believes this pullback in yields will fuel the next leg higher in equities. 

Newton believes that yields will find resistance at these levels and sees more risk of a breakdown in yields rather than a sustained breakout to new highs. He also believes the market is going in the wrong direction in terms of over-rating the Fed’s hawkishness in response to recent data. As evidence, he cites trader positioning which shows that the bulk of traders are betting on more rate hikes into year-end. 

Finsum: Bond yields are now trading at their 52-week highs following a series of better than expected economic data. Can equities still rally with yields at these levels?

In an article for InvestmentWeek, Jeffrey A. Johnson, the head of Fixed Income at Vanguard,  discusses why there is opportunity for investors in active fixed income funds. He sees attractive valuations coupled with elevated yields. However, he warns that more volatility is likely given that central banks aren’t yet finished raising rates. 

According to Johnson, periods of volatility are when active fixed income really shines. Further, he believes investors can increase their odds of success with active investing by selecting funds with qualified and capable management teams in addition to low costs. 

Over the long-term, most active funds fail to beat their benchmarks. The story isn’t so simple in fixed income given that active managers can take advantage of different durations and credit quality that aren’t available to passive funds. 

Given the challenges of active management, Vanguard recommends a blend of active and passive funds. Although, it favors active management during periods of volatility and uncertainty. In contrast, passive funds offer predictability and lower costs, while active funds offer a higher degree of risk and reward. 

Finsum: According to Vanguard, the outlook for active fixed income funds is improving. The asset class tends to outperform during periods of volatility and economic and monetary uncertainty.