Displaying items by tag: private credit

Ever since the Fed embarked on its tightening campaign starting in the early months of 2022, the real estate market experienced the most immediate impact due to rising mortgage rates negatively affecting home affordability.

Initially, publicly traded real estate stocks saw deep drawdowns while private real estate performed much better. Now, this gap is beginning to shrink as private real estate has been following public real estate lower. One factor is that it’s increasingly becoming clear that high rates are not going to disappear anytime soon due to the resilience of the economy and inflation. In fact, inflationary pressures seem to be reigniting given the recent strength in oil and auto workers striking.

In terms of when private real estate will bottom, some indicators to watch are an increase in transaction volume even at lower prices, a change in monetary policy, and increase in lending standards. Currently, all 3 are working against private real estate given that many markets are ‘frozen’ as sellers are unwilling to cut prices, while buyers don’t see many attractive deals at current yields. The Fed’s focus remains on stamping out inflation whether through further hikes or keeping rates ‘higher for longer’. Finally, lending standards are unlikely to loosen especially with so many banks struggling with balance sheet issues and/or an inverted yield curve. 

Finsum: Private real estate was immune to the weakness in public real estate for so long. Find out why this is starting to change.

One of the consequences of tighter monetary policy is to curtail housing demand by squeezing affordability. As a result, all sorts of housing activity has cooled such as mortgage applications, new home construction, renovations, and house flipping. While there are all sorts of losers, it’s presenting an opportunity for many private real estate funds who are finding a buyer’s market.

 These funds raise money with multi year holding periods so are less affected by the change in the funding environment at least in the short and intermediate-term. Another factor in the real estate market is that many regional banks are pulling back from extending credit given their balance sheet concerns. Overall, it’s a risk for the broader economic outlook but a unique opportunity for private real estate investors.   

And, more money is being allocated to real estate - public and private. In the first-half of the year, 43% of institutions surveyed, increased their allocation to real estate by an average of 76 basis points. Sovereign wealth funds also increased real estate exposure from 6.9% to 7.9%. In terms of geography, private real estate continues to be dominated by North American investors.

Two of the most common ways to invest in real estate are through REITs or private real estate. While both have similarities, there are some key differences in terms of structure, liquidity, access, risk, and return. 

REITs are similar to mutual funds in how they are traded and valued. However, they must derive 75% of their income from real estate investments and distribute 90% of taxable income to shareholders. There are a variety of REITs that encompass the whole industry such as retail, commercial real estate, senior housing, multifamily, office, etc. 

Unlike private real estate, there is no end date, and they can operate in perpetuity. Private real estate differs from REITs in that they tend to be pooled investment vehicles that give investors fractional ownership. 

While REITs must abide by strict tax laws, there is no similar requirement for private real estate. Another difference is that private real estate tends to not offer income. Instead, their goal is to pool capital to acquire and develop a property, hold it for seven to ten years, sell it at a profit, and return proceeds to investors with the operators taking a cut. 

Finsum: There are many ways to invest in real estate. Two of the most common are REITs and private real estate. Here are some key differences between both options. 

Jonathan Brasse discussed a recent white paper from Swiss alternatives group, Partners Group, about why private markets are poised to grow faster than public ones over the next decade in an article for PEREnews.

In essence, Partners Group notes the changing landscape for private markets, and how they are playing a larger role in financing the ‘real economy’. Since 2016, funding on private markets has exceeded that of public markets. Last year, about $400 billion was raised on public markets, while more than $1 trillion was raised in private markets.

Another change is that companies raising on private markets are generally healthier and more profitable than ones listing on public exchanges. These trends are also evident in the real estate market.

Fundraising for real estate in private markets has been steadily growing, while the number of real estate IPOs has dwindled. In terms of future returns, real estate listed on private markets has a better chance to be renewed, repurposed, and transformed, while such expenditures are less common on the public side given the pressures of quarterly earnings and shorter time horizons of public investors. 

Finsum: Private markets have been overtaking public markets in terms of funding. This trend is also happening in real estate markets.

With clients pulling an estimated $130 billion in assets from Janus Henderson since 2017, the fund firm’s new boss is looking to revive the company by leaning into active management and pushing into alternative investments such as hedge funds and private credit. Ali Dibadj, who took over as CEO in June, acknowledged the firm’s difficulties and laid out a turnaround strategy, which includes pushing into some of the most competitive areas of the market to stop the bleeding. A committee of 40 senior staff members met for months to understand what clients want and then created a revival strategy. At the root of the plan is a bet on active management. The firm believes that active management can bring the best returns to investors. In addition to active funds, Janus is looking to focus on liquid alternatives, for which it currently has $20 billion under management. While the division hasn't received much attention, it houses several hedge funds. Last year, the unit had net inflows of $2 billion into products including multi-strategy hedge funds and equity- and commodity-enhanced index funds. Dibadj is also looking into illiquid alternatives. The firm is considering using private credit to augment its fixed-income unit and products tied to mortgage-backed and high-yield securities. Dibadj said the “move stems from client demand for such products.”

Finsum:After seeing $130 billion pulled from its funds, new Janus Henderson CEO Ali Dibadj is looking to stem the bleeding by betting on active management and moving into alternatives such as liquid alternatives and private credit.