(New York)

The bearish stream of warnings from Morgan Stanley continues unabated. The bank’s wealth management CIO has just made another big call for the firm, saying a correction is likely. Lisa Shallett of MS Wealth management says that the Fed is trying to fight the end of the cycle, and it will likely prove too hard to do. She believes that a recession and correction are highly likely in the next year and that stocks will drop by at least 10%. That said, she advises investors to buy further intro underperforming sectors.

FINSUM: Morgan Stanley says explicitly that they think the bond market’s call on the economy is more correct than stocks and that an economic hard landing is likely coming.

(New York)

Second quarter earnings season is about to begin, and nobody has much expectation for good news. Analysts across the board expect earnings to shrink, brining back the first profit recession since 2016. Materials, technology, and consumer discretionary are set to get hit the hardest, but the majority of sectors are likely to see losses. Analysts estimate the average earnings decline for the S&P 500 will be 2.8%.

FINSUM: It will be interesting to se if this has any effect on stocks. Given it is so telegraphed, we don’t think there will be a big impact unless the losses are much steeper than expected.

(Washington)

Goldman Sachs thinks the Dollar might be in a for big surprise. On top of his grumbling about the Fed not lowering rates quickly enough, President Trump has been tweeting about the unfair advantage that other countries have in lowering their value against the Dollar. Trump apparently wants a weak Dollar to help the US compete more effectively in the global economy. Accordingly, Goldman Sachs think there is a good chance that Trump uses some special tool to intervene and weaken the currency, such as through the Treasury department.

FINSUM: This is not as unprecedented as it sounds. Even Powell has said the Treasury is the traditional power in charge of exchange rate policy. This would likely have a big impact on markets.

(Washington)

After the “trade truce” at the G20 it was looking more like the US and China may get a trade deal done soon. However, news out recently says otherwise, as China has not boosted its purchases of US agricultural products. Such a move was a key tenet of the agreement Trump apparently struck with Xi at the G20, but Beijing has not followed through on the promise. Trump complained publicly about this yesterday, but China denies they ever made such an agreement.

FINSUM: This seems small and petty but it is precisely not the direction that one would like these talks to be headed in.

(Washington)

Jay Clayton came out punching for the SEC’s new Best Interest Rule this week. The rule has faced a lot of criticism from all sides, but was finally approved internally. Now, Clayton is combatting critics. In particular, the SEC chairman is defending the harshest criticism of the rule—that it does not define “best interest”. Clayton argues that using a principles-based framework, which relies on a contextual definition of best interest depending on the situation in question, is a well-trod regulatory path and one that is superior to creating a definition for every scenario.

FINSUM: We don’t love this rule, but we agree with Clayton on this point. Having a highly defined rule leaves it more vulnerable to loopholes. With the current contextual structure, one has to worry whether their behavior could be considered “best interest” depending on an amorphous standard. It seems like a better way to keep bad actors in line.

(New York)

Are you looking for a good dividend stock? Well, we have one for you. How about a stock that has risen 27% this year yet still has a 4% dividend yield and a very solid business? If that sounds good, take a look at Prudential Financial. The company is an asset manager and insurance provider, and has solid growth and financials and seeks to be financially prudent. “We believe in a very consistent and regular dividend that will be aligned with our earnings growth, says the CFO. The company has expected earnings growth of 8% this year.

FINSUM: Prudential is a pretty sleepy name, but there is nothing boring about a 4% dividend combined with earnings growth and market-beating price appreciation.

(Houston)

We know, we know, you don’t want to hear about oil. No one seems interested in the all-important commodity at the moment, but that is exactly why you might want to pay attention. Oil stocks have had a terrible decade—down 10% while the S&P 500 rose almost 300%, hence the derision they face from investors. Prices are so low that oil now composes just 4.5% of the S&P 500, very near to the lowest ever (in 1999). The big question investors need to be asking themselves is “is this peak pessimism”?

FINSUM: We think oil stocks offer some value right now, but what will be the catalyst to make them rise? A big economic boom seems unlikely at present. Oil missed this cycle and it is still oversupplied. We would stay away.

(Washington)

Jerome Powell’s performance could not have been much better. He gave exactly what the people wanted—dovishness. In fact, if anything, he was almost comically dovish, disregarding the very strong jobs performance last month. No matter though, investors are pleased as it now looks nearly 100% likely the Fed will cut rates later this month, and seems as though they will stay on a cutting path for some time. The Fed’s shift in policy appears to affirm that they are currently considering the condition of the global economy as a major threat to the US.

FINSUM: The Fed is in a pretty easy spot if you think about it. Inflation is very low, markets want cuts, and the global economy is looking weak. Simple solution with no real downside—cut rates.

(New York)

There is a big new risk to stocks to worry about, says Goldman Sachs. Actually, it is a not a new risk, it is an old one that investors have not been thinking about. The risk? Pay. The bank says that rising pay pressure from workers could hurt companies at all levels and eat into margins. The labor market is incredibly tight, which puts upward pressure on pay and downward pressure on corporate margins. Wage growth is already at its highest rate since 2007, and companies may feel the sting. According to Goldman, “While S&P 500 profit margins are at historical highs, survey data indicates a record level of corporate concern regarding labor costs”.

FINSUM: Many analysts have been predicting an earnings recession and this is one of the factors that could exacerbate it.

(New York)

Investors likely already know that low cost index funds tend to greatly outperform high fee actively managed funds (to the tune of 1.5% or more annually). That comes as no surprise. However, what was surprising to us is that in fixed income, the tables are greatly turned. While passive funds do have a slight edge over active ones on average (0.18% per year), in many cases high fee actively managed fixed income funds outperform passive ones. This holds true over long time periods, including ten-year horizons.

FINSUM: This is an interesting finding and one that makes intuitive sense. The bond market is vast, hard to access, and full of intricacies. That kind of environment lends itself to specialism in a way that large cap equities does not, and the performance metrics show it.