(New York)

Raymond James just reported earnings and alongside its figures, it also released its latest advisor numbers, and they were eye-popping. The firm has grown its advisor head count to over 8,000, up 198 since last September. Raymond James’ recent recruiting success seems to come down to two factors: big recruiting loans, and the fact that with Raymond James, advisors own the client. According to Raymond James CEO Paul Reilly, “I can’t remember seeing so many $5 million to $10 million [advisors] in the pipeline”.

FINSUM: Big recruiting payouts and letting advisors own the client is a pretty compelling (if expensive) way to recruit.

(London)

After three and a half years of chaos, it is finally going to happen—the British people are going to get a chance to vote on Brexit. No, it will not be in the form of a second referendum, but rather in the form of a general election. After fighting the option for months, the Labour party has been forced to give in to a general election that will pit Boris Johnson against Jeremy Corbyn, and likely decide the future of Brexit. No date has yet been set for the election, but it looks very likely to be in early December.

FINSUM: The trick of this election is that Brexit is probably going to happen no matter who wins because even top Labour leaders actually want the UK to leave.

(New York)

Regulation Best Interest could be on the verge of being struck down in court just like the DOL’s Fiduciary Rule. A consortium of state attorney generals and fiduciary advisers has brought a consolidated lawsuit aiming to stop the rule. The case was rapidly dismissed by the Southern District of New York because of a lack of subject matter experience and it will now be heard by the 2nd Circuit Court. The plaintiffs are arguing that in its current form the rule does not meet the clear demands laid out in the Dodd-Frank Act.

FINSUM: The smart money is on the SEC prevailing, but we expect this will just be an opening salvo in a long legal battle over the rule.

(New York)

Most analysts and investors are quite bearish on the market at the moment despite the fact that the trade war is looking less worrying. That said, there is still a lot of indecision over where the market is headed. With that in mind, Barron’s is arguing that buying beat up but high-quality dividend stocks is a safe bet no matter which way the market heads. Here are five stocks to look at: UnitedHealth, food products company Ingredion, drug company Eli Lilly, Kohl’s, and Ralph Lauren.

FINSUM: There are a lot of different types of names here. We are most interested in Ralph Lauren, which is trading at a 25% discount to its historical valuation. The company is very healthy—easily covering its 3% dividend with earnings—and it it not facing the same headwinds as other retailers because it is mostly a wholesale business, meaning it is agnostic to the shift to online selling.

(New York)

The ETF industry has been undermining the mutual fund business for years, but it is now set to undergo a transformation itself. In particular, as many as half of the 2,000+ ETFs currently listed are likely to close in the next few years as they die off from a lack of assets. Most ETFs need to reach somewhere between $50m and $100m to break even, but currently more than half of the 2,100 or so ETFs have less than $100m. The problem is that the market has become so inundated with new concepts—and so top heavy from broad index funds—that attracting assets is very difficult. Accordingly, many ETFs, including from large providers, are likely to close over the next couple years.

FINSUM: Big names have already started shuttering funds that were underperforming in terms of assets. Expect more of the same.

(Brussels)

In what can only be described as an act of both extreme patience—and hope for a better outcome—the EU has yet again agreed to extend the Brexit deadline from October 31st to January 31st following the big failure of Boris Johnson’s most recent deal in Parliament. The difference with this extension is that it has a caveat that if the EU and UK come to an agreement before January 31st, then the UK is free to leave in advance of the deadline.

FINSUM: The EU obviously wants the UK to leave on the best terms possible, and they are probably hoping Brexit gets completely reversed through an upcoming general election.

(Washington)

Yes, you read the headline correctly. The original DOL rule—the one vacated by the courts in 2018—is seeing new life breathed into it. We are not talking about the DOL Rule 2.0 effort being led by Scalia and company at the DOL, we are talking about the Obama era proposal. So who is bringing the new rule back, or at least proposing to do so—Elizabeth Warren. In a little covered policy release earlier this month, Warren vowed she would restore the Fiduciary Rule (1.0). She wanted to bring back “The Labor Department’s fiduciary rule that the Trump administration delayed and failed to defend in court, so that brokers can’t cheat workers out of their retirement savings”.

FINSUM: Add this to the long list of CFPB-oriented measures Warren wants to enact if she wins the election. On a separate note, it is very annoying how politicians so casually call all brokers cheaters when it is really a small sample of bad actors.

(New York)

Hopes for the housing market had been rising strongly in the last couple of months. After nearly a year in the doldrums, existing homes sales rose for a pair of months in July and August, giving the market hope that falling mortgage rates had revived the market. However, in September, sales again fell sharply, with existing home sales dropping 2.2% from the previous month. Prices, however, are rising, as short supply is moving asking prices higher.

FINSUM: Prices are holding up okay, but there is not much buying and building occurring, which means housing will be contributing less to the economy overall.

(San Francisco)

A prominent fund manager has just come out with a bold and bearish prediction—that the big multi-year surge in FAANG stocks will fade. Rob Arnott of Research Affiliates says “Will these stocks produce such impressive growth that they will justify their current market cap, or are these implausible growth expectations? We don’t have a crystal ball, of course, but we would recommend not betting on the momentum continuing”. Overall, FAANGs account for $4.2 tn of market cap, a huge concentration in such a small group of stocks, and a big threat to the overall bull market. Arnott is considered the founder of smart beta and has turned Research Affiliates into a firm that manages $184 bn.

FINSUM: The basic argument here is that FAANG valuations have simply grown too large relative to other sectors and are bound to come down. But what is the catalyst?