(New York)

Donald Trump wasted no time in highlighting Democrats’ big debacle in the Iowa Caucus. And interestingly, markets wasted no time in jumping on news of the issues in Iowa. In particular, bank stocks jumped across the board (from JPM to BAC and beyond) on news of the reporting issue in Iowa. Investors think a Trump re-election will be better for markets, and bank stocks are particularly sensitive as the current president is viewed as much more favorable to financial companies.

FINSUM: If Bernie ends up winning the Caucus, expect markets to take a little hit, as he (or Warren) will be the exact opposite of “good” for bank stocks.

(Washington)

Whether you are a Democrat or a Republican, the ongoing “reporting issue” with the Iowa Caucus is highly embarrassing. Democrats were unable to report a winner after voting closed last night because of irregularities in reporting. The party’s new app, which voters and reporting areas used, did not fail. Nonetheless, there were inconsistencies and reporting issues (e.g. phone lines were down). Candidates were unable to comment on their success or failure, save Pete Buttigieg, who declared victory.

FINSUM: Trump jumped all over this, as one would expect. It does not look good for Democratic competence to have a big screw-up on their first trip out of the gate in 2020.

(Los Angeles)

Tesla’s stock has been rising almost as fast as Elon Musk’s rocket ship ambitions. Not only is the stock up almost 100% this year already (!), but shares rose by a shocking 20% on Monday alone. Why? The lack of a concrete reason is what makes the move alarming. There was some relatively minor news from a supplier about battery prices, but otherwise nothing. That is making many traders expect that a short squeeze has hold of the market, making gains artificial and moving the stock dangerously away from its moving averages.

FINSUM: Tesla shares seem to be showing a high degree of irrational exuberance right now. Any bad news could cause a huge drop.

(Washington)

More focus has been put on what Elizabeth Warren has said about wealth management, but the reality is that Bernie seems much likelier to win the bid, and his opinions are more poorly understood. With the Iowa caucus starting today, it seems the right time to start thinking about it. Bernie seems likely to take a very hard line on wealth management, likely replacing all the top management of the relevant agencies and taking a new line on Reg BI and the Fiduciary Rule. It is hard to imagine he would be comfortable with existing regulation and given how the Democratic party views the role of agency power, it seems like big changes might be made.

FINSUM: Given Bernie’s views, the changes to the industry might not just be limited to regulations, but also to mergers and acquisitions of wealth managers, and of course, huge tax changes.

(New York)

With the big fall on Friday, a new and important reality has hit the stock market—indexes are actually down on the year. This is eye-opening because stocks came into the year with huge momentum from 2019’s big gains. However, between earnings and the Wuhan virus, stocks have taken a big hit. Adding to these fears is the fact that China just had a disastrous 8% loss today and there are escalating worries over how this virus might impact global growth.

FINSUM: Our own view is that the damage this virus has done to stocks is transitory and buy-the-dip might still be the best strategy.

(Washington)

The Iowa caucus kicks off today and do not be surprised if market get blindsided by the results. Bernie Sanders holds a solid lead in Iowa and he is likely to win the day in the state. That said, markets have been dismissive of Bernie for a long time, and it seems quietly realistic that despite all the predictions of him winning, him actually doing so might spook investors.

FINSUM: We would not be surprised at all if we saw a mini “Bernie correction” when Iowa results come out.

(Washington)

New polls are out and Sanders is at least tied with Biden. He has been reported as ahead recently, but a flurry of recent polls have all confirmed that he is at least tied. This could be a major issue for the stock market, as Wall Street is wary of Bernie. While they revile Warren, they understand her thinking and respect her regulatory acumen. Bernie is seen as a wildcard. It makes sense then that for each 10-point rise Sanders has seen in the polls, the S&P 500 has dropped 1% based on a rolling two-week relationship, according to UBS.

FINSUM: We would have to agree with this assessment. If Sanders wins the bid, the market will probably have a little blip, and then any polls that show Sanders ahead of Trump would be very worrying for markets.

(New York)

Bonds have been in a bull market for the entire living memory of almost everyone in the financial industry. Yields are extremely low, prices are high, and stocks are peaking every week. Even if you are worried about bonds, the odds that they keep rising seem strong given some undeniably supportive factors. Those include a Fed that not only says it has no intention of hiking rates, but is actually undertaking a stealth form of QE by buying $60 bn of Treasury bills every month to make sure the financial system has adequate cash reserves.

FINSUM: Everything in the market is pointing to a repeat of the post-Crisis market paradigm—ultra-low rates, rising stocks. Should we expect a different outcome this time?

(Frankfurt)

New data on the EU economy has just come in and it isn’t pretty. Overall, the bloc grew just 01% in the fourth quarter, while Italy and France actually contracted. According to Commerzbank, “The spectre of recession is back … Economic growth in the eurozone came to a virtual standstill at the end of the year . . . The ECB is likely to view this with concern”. Ironically though, this may be positive for market as the ECB is likely to take an even more dovish approach.

FINSUM: It feels like we just did a time warp back to around 2013, when central banks were ready to stick to ZIRP for years. We all know how stocks performed then!

(New York)

The market had gone an incredible 70 days without a closing gain or loss of more than 1%. It was one of the longest streaks in history, but it all came crashing down this week as the Dow fell 1.6% and the Nasdaq fell 1.9%. The big question is what happens next. Generally speaking, it does not matter if a long streak of placidity is broken by a positive or negative move—stocks tend to keep doing well either way. Of the 12 times such a streak has happened, in 9 of the them gains were positive over the following year, with an average increase of 9.6% on a total return basis.

FINSUM: This is good historical context, but it is important to remember that none of those occurrences have anything to do with today’s market environment. That said, we remain bullish.