(New York)

COVID has affected the wealth management business as deeply as any other industry. Disruption has arrived, but opportunity has also come with it. But how will it impact the recruiting environment? By all accounts, it looks like the next six months or so will be an ideal time for advisors to move networks/companies. Firms are loosening purse strings and are jumping head first into recruiting again as periods of upheaval like COVID have usually led to increased movement among advisors. That means advisors are likely to get bigger checks for moving now than they would have earlier this year. The lack of conferences also means they are putting more money into other efforts to reach advisors.

FINSUM: Generally speaking, the COVID environment seems to have been beneficial for advisors. New efficiencies and work/life balance have been found as a result of working from home; deeper bonds with clients have been formed during the crisis; and there are increasing opportunities for recruiting. The speed of the market recovery has also been beneficial.

(New York)

There is alarm growing among muni bond investors as credit quality continues to deteriorate. During COVID there has been a widening gap in pension deficits among municipalities, and investors are keeping a close eye because it is leading to deferred pension payments. This is troubling for a number of reasons. Firstly, it digs municipalities into a bigger hole because they must pay interest on deferred payments; and secondly, it spooks bond markets and makes it harder for them to access liquidity. In other words, deferred pension payments, such as the nearly $1 bn one New Jersey elected to do in May, dig muni issuers into a deeper and deeper hole.

FINSUM: Pension recipients are very likely to be considered senior to bondholders, so this is a very alarming situation for investors.

(New York)

It might be obvious if you are paying close attention to the stock market, but today we are covering a list of the top performing stock/companies during COVID. Most of the names are what you would expect, but there are a few surprises. No one would be surprised to see Amazon and Microsoft atop the list, with Tesla, Facebook, and Alphabet all in the top ten, but how about PayPal and Shopify (numbers 9 and 15 respectively). Zoom is also in the top 15, but Audi and Home Depot are also in the top 25. Salesforce is number 33.

FINSUM: Certain companies have boomed under COVID for a variety of reasons, and looking at a consolidated list is a great way to get a perspective on what is performing well.

(Washington)

Despite some minor discontent, generally speaking the broker-dealer industry has been very tolerant of the new Reg BI. However, those who have been working on compliance and counting their blessings that DOL Rule 1.0 didn’t come into full force could be in for a rude awakening. Many will be aware that Joe Biden is well ahead in national polls at the moment. Polling difficulties aside (of which there are many), the growing risk for the industry is that Biden wins and then quickly moves to cancel Reg BI and install a much stricter rule akin to the first iteration of the DOL Rule. If he were to win the White House and take Congress, he would have wide latitude to undue the current regulatory paradigm. Even without a Congressional win, he would very likely reappoint all the heads of key departments, like the SEC and DOL, which could have a strong effect.

FINSUM: Just as the industry was settling into what looked like it might be a permanent new regulatory environment, things could very messy again. If Trump wins, none of this happens, but given polls it is an increasingly likely possibility.

(New York)

One of the best ways to watch the damage to the economy is to monitor the performance of consumer debt. Auto loans, student loans and beyond give a clear indicator of the health of American finances. Right now, the data is looking bad, reinforcing why this might be a long and difficult recovery. According to the WSJ, “Americans have skipped payments on more than 100 million student loans, auto loans and other forms of debt since the coronavirus hit the U.S … The largest increase occurred for student loans, with 79 million accounts in deferment or other relief status, up from 18 million a month earlier. Auto loans in some type of deferment doubled to 7.3 million accounts.  Personal loans in deferment doubled to 1.3 million accounts.” The total of deferments is triple the number from the end of April. Lenders, who have generally been accommodative to this point with borrowers, expect delinquency to soar later this year.

FINSUM: You cannot have 50m people—roughly a third of the US workforce—lose their jobs and not have any repercussions. This is the kind of data that makes stock indexes look rather ludicrous right now.

(New York)

Godman Sachs has generally been underperforming its competitors for years. However, under the leadership of CEO David Solomon the future is looking increasingly bright. On the one hand, the bank’s bet that trading would return as a huge driver of revenue and profit is starting to look smart (though it took about a decade), but on the other, its new focus on consumer and commercial banking products seems wise. Marcus, the brand under which its consumer-facing high yield savings accounts for consumers and businesses is marketed, has been growing its user base, with Goldman Sachs more generally has entered into many partnership deals in the consumer space. These include a new card with Apple, and a small business lending program in partnership with Amazon.

FINSUM: Goldman has been trying to shed its clubby image, and so far it seems to be making all the right moves. We are bullish on the future.

(Washington)

The SEC issued a pretty stern warning (or reminder, depending on how you look at it) to brokers this week. SEC chairman Jay Clayton issued a very direct statement addressing broker-dealers and saying that they needed to take “special care” when making 401(k)/IRA rollovers because form CRS, as part of Reg BI, would cover such transactions. Clayton also emphasized that 401(k)/IRA rollovers are considered a primary feature of the rule, saying that it was one of the “most significant enhancements over the status quo … should be approached with care”. He concluded “Firms should recognize that these recommendations are subject to Reg BI and ensure that their policies and procedures meet the requirements of Reg BI, the Advisers Act and Form CRS, as appropriate”.

FINSUM: Just in case anyone wasn’t clear, the SEC just made it abundantly obvious that there is no wiggle room here. The most interesting thing to us in this statement is how he seemed to indicate this will be the key focus of the SEC (which will likely be reflected in enforcement).

(New York)

Morgan Stanley made a bold call this week. Their research team has officially adopted what seems like a fairly risky position on the economic recovery: they are saying it will be of the much sought after v-shape. The bank has been calling for a short and sharp recession for some time, but this is the most optimistic outlook they have published. According to Morgan Stanley’s chief economist, “Recent upside surprises in the incoming growth data and policy action have increased our confidence that this will be a deep V-shaped recession”.

FINSUM: We still don’t think this is going to be a v-shaped recovery. More like a U-shape or more likely a Nike swoosh shape. The depth of firings combined with the probable corresponding slow pace of consumer spending will hold back the pace of the recovery.

(New York)

Evercore put out an interesting prediction today. The bank, which has a strong research team, says that the market is likely to be “violent” in the near term. They also added a twist—that it would be “violently flat”, meaning it would have sharps up and downs on but the whole remain around the same levels. Evercore highlights the upsides and risks this way, saying “A significant COVID second wave would continue to drive asset prices lower, but with vaccine development continuing, little correlation between economic re-openings and increased case growth and hospitalization data at the national level”. That said, longer term, they are quite bullish, arguing that there will be a “sharp rebound”.

FINSUM: The news flow is going to mean that stocks are very volatile for the foreseeable future. Increased case growth one day, and then a big jump in retail sales the next.

(New York)

If you are upset about the market’s mini-correction last week, don’t worry, it is going to fall more, says Morgan Stanley. In what comes across as almost an insult to regular investors, Morgan Stanley’s research team says stocks may fall another 7% from opening levels today, but that such a fall was “healthy”. On the whole, Morgan Stanley’s position was positive, saying “We maintain our positive view for U.S. equity markets because it’s early in a new economic cycle and bull market. Last week’s correction was overdue and likely has another 5-7% downside. It’s healthy and we are buyers into weakness with a small/mid-cap and cyclical tilt”.

FINSUM: We have definitely entered a new economic cycle, and with it, perhaps a new market cycle. However, the pace with which stocks came back makes one worry the market cycle has not actually reset itself.