(New York)

High yield stocks have been wounded during the pandemic. The 100 worst performing S&P 500 stocks since the pandemic began have returned minus 39% and yield an average of 3.07%; the top 100 have returned over 35% and yield just 0.85%. However, now might be the time to buy in as there are some exceptional values. The core idea is that many of these wounded names are going to be bid up over the next several months as yield-starved investors try to find some income.

FINSUM: Right now it is very important to be selective about dividend stocks, as their returns are all over the map. For example, the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG) has returned 4% this year, while the iShares Select Dividend ETF has returned minus 18%! The reason why is that the latter was weighted towards utilities and financials, which have suffered. Be careful what you choose!

(Washington)

Asset managers, other industry participants, and others on the left have been outraged over the last several weeks about a new DOL proposal that would essentially bar ESG investments from being included in 401(k)s. Multiple large asset managers, including BlackRock and T. Rowe Price have issued statements asserting how out of touch the new DOL policy would be with current wealth management trends. The general attitude of asset managers is that the DOL is trying to solve a problem that doesn’t exist. According to T. Rowe Price, “There is no factual support for the proposition that ESG is being misused currently … Accordingly, the proposed rule’s efforts to impose new requirements on fiduciaries’ consideration of ESG is not necessary”.

FINSUM: We understand the concern about making sure 401ks put economics first, but there just does not seem to be enough evidence of misbehavior to warrant this kind of restrictive policy. Furthermore, ESG funds have been outperforming conventional ones since the start of the pandemic!

(New York)

Wondering where the market is headed? (so is everyone!) Well, Goldman Sachs put out a pretty unequivocal opinion about it today. Despite the market being at all-time highs when the country is in a recession and unemployment massive, the bank says that the S&P 500 will rise another 7% to close out the year. The only damper in the bank’s forecast is the election. Goldman says it is assuming a Democratic victory, and that could cause higher taxes that could dent the market a bit. GS also says Treasury yields will fall to 1.1% by the end of the year.

FINSUM: So we have two big competing feelings here. On the one hand, with the Fed so strongly in support of markets (and another fiscal stimulus likely), it seems like it could be smooth sailing. On the other hand, 51% of the entire market’s gain since the bottom in March has come from five stocks. On the whole, we think gains are more likely than losses.

(Beijing)

If one thing has been clear over the last couple of years, it is that US-China relations are getting worse. It started earlier in Trump’s term and has escalated in a tit-for-tat battle over the last couple years. Some refer to it as a great “uncoupling” while others say it is a new cold war. Whatever you call it, there are a handful of sectors that will do well as the situation unfolds. One such sector is automation and robotics companies. These companies are likely to do very well as US businesses are forced to re-shore manufacturing from China and seek out automation to make the return more economical.

FINSUM: A major decoupling will be a very ugly event. US companies do $500 bn of sales in China each year. The automation play makes sense. Check out the Robotics ETF (ROBO).

(New York)

Real estate, especially residential real estate, is one of the sectors that has held up much better under COVID than many expected. With such hefty job losses, many thought early on that the market might suffer seriously. However, home prices have held steady, and in a bullish sign, homebuilders are feeling very confident. The bullishness in the sector seems to stem from a pair of factors—desire for single family homes during COVID, and exceptionally low interest rates. The Homebuilders index rose to a measure of 78 in August, up from 72 in July, setting a record that goes back to 1998.

FINSUM: This is a great sign for homebuilding stocks, and the economy more generally. It is a sign that the American consumer—at least the subset that is in the market for houses—is holding up okay. That said, it is the lower end of the socioeconomic hierarchy than seems to be suffering the most from COVID lockdowns.

(San Francisco)

Large cap tech has been doing great and getting tons of media attention. Within the big rise, though, Apple has seen relatively less attention. The reality is that it may be time to buy. Historical studies have shown that the best time to buy Apple stock is in advance of new iPhone releases, and it is now confirmed that a new iPhone is coming soon. And it is not just any iPhone, it is Apple’s first 5G iPhone, which the company said on a recent earnings call would start shipping in October.

FINSUM: Research has shown that the 90-day period preceding the launch of a new phone is an ideal time to buy. Seems like a good opportunity to consider Apple.

(Memphis)

FedEx and other logistics providers have risen alongside other stocks, but their gains have not been nearly as prolific as some of the ecommerce providers they service. However, that may be about to change. Multiple Wall Street analysts are changing their tune on the company, saying that the stars are aligning for the stock. In particular, UPS is starting to raise prices, which will help FedEx with profitability alongside the huge explosion in ecommerce volumes that has coincided with people staying at home. Furthermore, as a vaccine is developed, FedEx and other logistics providers will need to deliver millions of doses of vaccines, which will be another boost.

FINSUM: Two big factors here really—UPS and USPS are raising prices, allowing breathing room for FedEx; and…FedEx is a leader in temperature-controlled shipping, which is what will be needed for vaccines.

(Washington)

Many articles have been written about which stocks and sectors will do well or poorly if Trump or Biden wins/loses. Generally speaking, these articles are useful but repetitive. A more interesting idea is to look at the sectors/assets that will do well no matter who wins. With that in mind, here are a few ETFs poised to thrive when either candidate emerges victorious. One surprising area that should prosper in either scenario is clean energy. Biden plans to invest heavily in the area, but even if he does not win, this group of companies have finally become profitable. Couple that with rising pro-green public sentiment, and their long-term outlook is positive. Another area is infrastructure stocks. Both Biden and Trump have big infrastructure spending plans in their agenda ($1.3 tn vs $1 tn), so that appears to be a win-win.

FINSUM: Just as there are winners in either situation, there are also losers. Pharma, for instance, would be under attack in either presidency.

(New York)

Anyone who has been looking at the bond markets is likely to be shocked at the recent moves in the space. Many “high yield” bonds (it is now necessary to use quotes) are yielding what very high quality investment grade bonds were just months ago. A recent sale saw $1 bn of new issuance for a BB+ company at a 3% yield. The huge move downward in bond yields is the result of the Fed’s unprecedented stimulus action, and in particular, their mandate to backstop corporate bonds.

FINSUM: The Fed’s actions have been so warping that they have called into question the very definition of a high yield bond. If every bond is backed by the Fed, then it makes perfect sense that their yields would equalize. In this way the market’s reaction is entirely predictable.

(New York)

There has been a lot of negative press about the fate of retail under COVID, and with good reason. Brick and mortar businesses have been devastated and the bankruptcies have been relentless. However, one of the less noticed aspects is that many ecommerce businesses are doing very well. In fact, some retail ETFs, like the Amplify Online Retail ETF (IBUY) have been surging as stocks like Carvana, Overstock.com, and Peloton have seen their shares soar.

FINSUM: Ecommerce is a great bet for right now and for the foreseeable future. In its most basic sense, all COVID did to retail was accelerate the shift to ecommerce into a much faster gear. It was like a five-year jump in four months. There is no reason to expect that to revert any time soon.