Displaying items by tag: macro

Alternative investment platform CAIS recently announced that Graham Capital Management, L.P., a global alternative investment firm with approximately $17.9 billion in assets under management is adding select alternative investment funds on the CAIS Marketplace. Graham specializes in providing quantitative and discretionary macro strategies. The announcement coincides with positive performance across macro strategies over the last year. The Graham fund currently listed on the CAIS marketplace has undergone a third-party due diligence process conducted by Mercer and will be made available to thousands of RIAs and independent broker-dealers who oversee more than $3 trillion in assets. As part of the announcement, Brian Douglas, Chief Executive Officer of Graham, stated, “2022 was a strong year for macro and a reminder of the importance of portfolio diversification. We are optimistic that the opportunity set for our strategies will continue to be strong, so we are particularly excited about the timing of our partnership with CAIS.” While the private wealth channel has historically been under-allocated to alternatives compared to institutional investors, a recent CAIS-Mercer survey found that nearly 88% of advisors intend to increase their allocations to alternatives over the next two years. This follows news in January when CAIS announced that its platform is adding Reverence Capital Partners funds.

Finsum:Due to rising demand for alternative asset classes, CAIS announced that Graham Capital, which specializes in discretionary macro strategies is adding select funds to the CAIS marketplace.

While many hedge funds performed poorly last year, there was one strategy that had a big year, macro. According to Investopedia, a global macro hedge fund strategy is defined as a strategy that bases its holdings primarily on the overall economic and political views of various countries or their macroeconomic principles. Macro strategies performed well in last year’s volatile market, leading to strong gains for several funds. For instance, AQR Capital Management’s longest-running strategy had its best year since its inception in 1998, with the fund posting a gain of 43.5% net of fees. In fact, at least a dozen AQR funds saw record performance. AQR’s Absolute Return strategy soared 55% before fees, while the Style Premia Alternative Fund jumped 30.6%. AQR’s global macro strategy also had its best year, with a 42% gain. AGR wasn’t alone in having a strong year. Scott Bessent, who is a former Soros Fund Management investing chief, posted a 30% gain in his macro hedge fund and Chris Rokos’s $15.5 billion Macro Fund surged 51% in 2022, his best-ever gain. However, there was one notable firm that didn't perform well, Bridgewater Associates. Ray Dalio’s firm gave up much of its gains after losing money in October and November.

Finsum: Several macro hedge funds performed well last year, with at least twelve AQR funds achieving record performance.

Macro factors are coalescing in a way we haven’t seen in years to produce the perfect storm of potential Volatility, and the VIX is just hovering around medium to long-run averages suggesting a potential swell could be incoming. Advisors should push clients to strategies that can avoid volatility rather than trying to guess this uncertainty. The best option may just be options; a covered-call strategy is a great way to avoid volatility. Investors can lean into betting on medium to long-run growth and sit out excess volatility. This strategy has setbacks particularly if stocks over-perform, so advisors and investors need to carefully monitor the futures market to take full advantage. 

Finsum: Now is a great time to take advantage of anti-volatility strategies, yes they don’t have the long-run games but they have strong protections for market volatility. 

(New York)

On the surface of it, this does not seem like a good time to buy bank stocks. Bank shares have done really well in the last month, but the Fed’s sudden and dramatic dovishness on rates would seem to be a catalyst for a move lower in bank shares. Countering that theory stands Mike Mayo from Wells Fargo, an equity analyst who thinks the picture of bank shares looks better. Many big bank stocks are trading at relatively cheap 10x p/e ratios, with yields of 3% or more. According to Mayo, “The negative sentiment has created an opportunity with uniquely attractive valuations”. Banks are also expected to do a large amount of buybacks in 2019, with some like Wells Fargo and Citi, expected to spend more than 100% of earnings on dividends and buybacks.

FINSUM: Banks do seem like a good value play. But at the same time, they have been trading for years more on a macro basis. Which side seems more realistic? Stick with the trend—bank stocks now have a weaker outlook because of the Fed.

(New York)

The next recession has been talked about seriously for the last year or so, and discussion of it is rising now. But what might actually trigger the next downturn? The New York Times sees three possible triggers. The first is the Fed playing the economy wrong and sending the the country into a recession by being overly aggressive with rate hikes. In this scenario, 2020 seems like the doom year. Then there is the risk of the debt bubble bursting (just like the last recession), this time in corporate debt, which has seen a huge surge in issuance since the Crisis. Finally, the looming trade war could drive the whole global economy downward, sparking a major recession.

FINSUM: The corporate debt bubble bursting is a good insight, but much less discussed than the others. It is also interesting because it would be highly linked to the Fed. Maybe that is the double whammy?