Displaying items by tag: macro

Invesco recently completed its Q1 update on the landscape for alternative assets. In terms of private credit, the firm sees an improving environment due to a resilient economy, inflation trending lower, rate cuts later in the year, and expectations of liquidity events in private equity. Overall, it sees investors able to get attractive yields without compromising on credit quality. It expects overall yields to remain between 11 and 12% for the year for private credit investors. 

The firm sees opportunity in distressed debt and special situations to lend to ‘good companies’ with weakened balance sheets. It believes the higher rate environment has hurt smaller companies and that many of these companies are operationally sound but are ‘liquidity-constrained’, creating an opportunity to invest at attractive valuations. 

In terms of real assets, Invesco notes that fundamentals remain strong, for the most part, despite lower transaction volume and stresses created by the high-rate environment. It’s particularly bullish on real estate due to improving monetary conditions, which should support transaction volumes. Even during the downturn, income fundamentals remained robust across most categories. The firm sees sound fundamentals in most areas of real estate except for offices and overbuilding in some markets. Additionally, recent economic data has been supportive of a ‘soft landing’ for the economy, which is also bullish for real estate. 

Finsum: Invesco shared its thoughts on alternative assets. Overall, it’s bullish on the asset class and sees the most upside for real estate and private credit due to its positive forecast for the economy in 2024.

Lower energy prices have provided some relief for consumers over the last few months. However, this could be changing with demand set to increase as we enter the start of driving season which is due to be exacerbated by refinery outages in many parts of the country.

Over the last month, gasoline prices are about 5% higher but still slightly down relative to last year at this point. Higher energy prices negatively impact consumer confidence and discretionary spending but also feed into inflationary pressures. In last month’s CPI report, higher energy prices was a major factor in the hotter than expected readings. Additionally, they have political implications given elections in November.

According to analysts, the situation is likely to get worse before its gets better. Gasoline inventories are lower than normal, following a 5.7 million barrels decline last week, and are now 3% below their average levels for this time of the year. Inventories could continue to be drained as refineries have been running below 87% capacity for the last 8 weeks. Adding to these issues is recent drone strikes on Russian refineries by Ukraine.

Finsum: Gasoline prices have been rising due to refinery issues. The situation is likely to get worse before it gets better as we enter summer driving season, and inventories have been drawn down more than expected. 

Bond yields modestly rose following the February consumer price index (CPI) report which came in slightly hotter than expected. Overall, it confirms the status quo of the Fed continuing to hold rates ‘higher for longer’. Yields on the 10-year Treasury rose by 5.1 basis points to close at 4.16%, while the 2-Year note yield was up 5 basis points to close at 4.58%. 

The report showed that the CPI rose by 0.4% on a monthly basis and 3.2% annually. Economists were looking for a 0.4% monthly increase and 3.1% annual. While the headline figure was mostly in-line with expectations, Core CPI was hotter than expected at 3.8% vs 3.6% and 0.4% vs 0.3%. The largest contributors were energy which was up 2.6% and shelter at 0.4% which comprised 60% of the gain.

Based on recent comments by Chair Powell and other FOMC members, the Fed is unlikely to begin cutting unless inflation resumes dropping or there are signs of the labor market starting to crack. Current probabilities indicate that the Federal Reserve is likely to hold rates steady at the upcoming FOMC meeting, especially with no major economic data expected that could shift their thinking. 

Finsum: The February jobs report resulted in a slight rally for bonds as it increased the odds of a rate cut in June. Most strength was concentrated on the short-end of the curve.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US added 275,000 jobs in February which was slightly higher than expectations. However, the report indicated some softening in the labor market as job gains in January and December were revised lower by a collective 167,000, and the unemployment rate inched higher to 3.9%. 

It resulted in bonds moving higher as odds increased that the Fed would cut rates in June. Additionally, the number of hikes expected in 2024 also rose from 3 to 4. Most strength was concentrated on the short-end, which is more sensitive to Fed policy as yields on the 2-Year Treasury note declined by 10 basis points. There was much less movement on the long-end as the 10-year Treasury yield was lower by 3 basis points. Earlier this week, bonds also caught a bid as Chair Powell’s testimony to Congress was interpreted as being dovish. 

Overall, the jobs report perpetuates the status quo in terms of the Fed remaining data-dependent, while the path of the economy and inflation remain ambiguous. On one hand, wages and the labor market have defied skeptics who were anticipating a downturn. But there has been acute weakness in areas like manufacturing and services which have historically coincided with a weakening economy. 

Finsum: The February jobs report resulted in a slight rally for bonds as it increased the odds of a rate cut in June. Most strength was concentrated on the short end of the curve.

With signs that inflation is starting to tick higher and renewed concerns about the stability of banks, many investors are looking to shield their portfolio from a rise in volatility. As 2022 demonstrated, rising inflation creates conditions that are unfavorable for stocks and bonds. 

One way that investors can protect their portfolios is to increase their allocation to fixed index annuities. They can help investors reduce risk while still allowing for accumulation. A fixed index annuity (FIA) functions similarly to a traditional annuity as it guarantees some payment while allowing for deferral of taxes. However, the key difference is that it also tracks a specific index to allow for appreciation of the principal as well. 

Unlike fixed income or equities, there is much less downside risk and sensitivity to interest rates. Essentially, the FIA will not see any loss of principal in the event that the index suffers losses. However if the index has positive returns, the FIA will capture some portion of the upside. 

Thus, FIAs can help reduce portfolio risk and shield investors from disastrous scenarios especially if they are in or near retirement. At the same time, it ensures that the portfolio is also protected against inflation, reducing the risk that a retiree will outlive their savings.

Finsum: Risks to the outlook have been steadily rising in 2024 as inflationary pressures are once again building, and there are renewed concerns about the health of the banking system. Here’s why fixed indexed annuities are an effective way that investors can diversify and de-risk their portfolios.