Displaying items by tag: equities

(New York)

One of the largest asset managers in the world made a potentially very worrying claim today: that ESG today is a lot like the tech bubble was in year 2000. The sovereign wealth fund of Norway’s CEO, Nicolai Tangen, says that much like dotcom stocks, ESG asset are trading at very frothy valuations. What is interesting about his claim, though, is that he is not focused on the potential “bubble”, but rather on what those valuations mean. “What is interesting is, if you compare the situation now with, for example, the situation before the year 2000, then the stock market was right that technology companies were going to do well in the future … But the valuation went a little high, so it came down again, but the technological development continued, said Tangen. He continued, “We may see something of the same sort now, that what is happening in the green shift is extremely important and real”.

FINSUM: So Tangen is saying there is a big bubble in ESG, but in the way only an ultra-long-term investor like a sovereign wealth fund can, he is focused on how the market is “right” about its long-term potential.

(Chicago)

Small cap stocks are starting to have their day in the sun. The Russell 200 has started to catch up to large cap indexes this autumn, and some stocks look ready to surge. The index is now up 21.2% for the year, just a few points behind the S&P 500’s 25.5%. According to Merrill Lynch, economic recoveries “tend to be the best phase for small-caps …That’s one key reason we think we could be poised for a shift from large to small”. According to a Jefferies analyst, “I think small is primed to outperform as the economy and earnings improve in 2020 … That’s going to be the whole ballgame”.

FINSUM: It is hard to imagine the US is going to enter an “economic recovery phase” at the end of a ten-year bull run, but the market’s perception of the current economy is exactly that, so these forecasts might be spot on.

(New York)

Falling yields are having a very positive effect on gold. The metal is already enjoying its best first half in years, and the fundamentals for gold look solid. Potential weakness in equities and worries about growth are both stoking gold demand, while lower yields and a weaker Dollar are also supportive. Gold is now being used as a hedge against equities in a way that bonds have traditionally been employed. “The bond market is not acting as a reliable hedge against equity weakness in the way that everyone expected it to and it hasn’t operated that way since 2008. Gold is providing better protection against potential equity weakness right now than bonds are”, says the head of gold strategy at State Street Global Advisors.

FINSUM: Gold seems like it has a nice path to keep its performance going. That said, we are worried rate cuts might spark a more risk-on equity market, which would pull money out of the metal.

(New York)

The market may be way up this year, but there are still some great values out there. The average P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is 16.7, yet 67 of the companies in it trade at below 10, triple the amount of five years ago. Here are a handful of blue chips that are very cheap, but have strong market positions, decent profitability, and nice growth positions: Delta Airlines, Bank of America, Kroger, homebuilder Lennar, and BorgWarner, a maker of car components.

FINSUM: These seem like great picks, but they also appear to be the victims of the long-term decline in value investing. Investors keep thinking value investing will bounce back, but it hasn’t.

(New York)

The best US stock sector of 2018 is also now the market’s most risky. Consumer discretionary stocks have been on a run this year (as they often do when rates are rising), but that may be about to change. According to Morgan Stanley, consumer discretionary, which is composed of retail, apparel companies, and automakers, may be set for a big fall. “An early-cycle sector trading at peak valuations in a late-cycle environment”, is the way Morgan Stanley describes the sector. The average P/E ratio for consumer discretionary stocks is 35% above the S&P 500’s average.

FINSUM: Amazon is disproportionately responsible for the consumer discretionary’s gains this year, but the other stocks in the sector could be good shorting opportunities.