Displaying items by tag: Treasuries

Based on the latest treasury yield movements, investors are bracing for a recession. Yields on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note have fallen by around 83 basis points from their October high of 4.338% as investors sent $4.89 billion into U.S. bond funds last week. That marks the third straight week of net inflows. The bond rally comes after Treasuries had the worst year ever, driven by the Fed's tightening policy. The key driver for the current rally has been concerns over the Fed's rate increases sending the U.S. economy into a recession. Treasuries are typically seen as a safe haven during economic uncertainty. Investors expect the Fed to raise rates by another 25 basis points at the end of its monetary policy meeting today, while Wall Street is also looking for signs that the Fed will pull back on its hawkish stance amid falling inflation. Rob Daly, director of fixed income at Glenmede Investment Management told Reuters that "Things are coming off the boil here. There is a de-risking that's happening, and we're seeing flows out of equities into higher quality parts of the market such as fixed income." Although stocks have been rallying since late last year, investors are playing it safe, expecting the rally to end if a recession hits.

Finsum:While stocks have been in a mini rally since the end of last year, investors are playing it safe flooding U.S. bonds funds in the expectation of a recession.

JPMorgan Asset Management recently announced the upcoming launch of three new fixed-income BetaBuilders ETFs. The funds, which will launch in February, will provide exposure to the aggregate, investment-grade corporate, and high-yield corporate bond markets. All three will be converted from three existing actively managed ETFs. The JPMorgan BetaBuilders US Aggregate Bond ETF (BBAG) will be created from the $1.2 billion JPMorgan US Aggregate Bond ETF (JAGG). The fund, which will come with an expense ratio of 0.03%, will track the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index and invest in Treasury, government-related, corporate, and securitized fixed-rate bonds from issuers worldwide. The JPMorgan BetaBuilders USD Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (BBCB) will be converted from the $40 million JPMorgan Corporate Bond Research Enhanced ETF (JIGB). BBCB will track the Bloomberg US Corporate Bond Index, consisting of investment-grade bonds from corporate issuers worldwide. The ETF has an expense ratio of 0.09%. The final ETF, the JPMorgan BetaBuilders USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (BBHY), will be created from the $400m JPMorgan High Yield Research Enhanced ETF (JPHY). BBHY will track the ICE BofA US High Yield Total Return Index, covering sub-investment-grade, corporate bonds issued in the US market. The fund has a slightly higher expense ratio of 0.15%

Finsum:JPMorgan adds to its suite of BetaBuilders ETFs with the upcoming launch of aggregate, investment-grade corporate, and high-yield corporate bond ETFs.

Even though inflation continues to force the Fed’s hand on tightening, money managers are starting to rebuild their exposures toward Treasuries, with the hope that the highest payouts in years will help cushion portfolios from the damage inflicted by additional rate hikes. For instance, Morgan Stanley believes that a multi-asset income fund can find some of the best opportunities in decades in dollar-denominated securities such as inflation-linked debt and high-grade corporate obligations. That’s because interest payments on 10-year Treasuries have hit 4.125%, the highest since the financial crisis. In addition, PIMCO estimates that long-dated securities, which have been hit hard due to the Fed’s hawkishness, will bounce back if a recession should occur. They believe that a recession would ignite the bond-safety trade, where government debt would act as a hedge in the much-maligned 60/40 portfolio. Essentially, higher income and lower duration are helping to make the case that bonds will have a much better 2022. While inflation and liquidity concerns remain, the median in a recent Bloomberg survey shows “dealers, strategists and economists project bond prices will rise modestly in tandem with cooling inflation, with the 10-year US note trading at 3.5% by end of next year.”

Finsum:A combination of higher income payments and lower duration has money managers becoming more bullish on treasuries.

Much has been written about the failure of the 60/40 portfolio this year. What was once the classic allocation has seen its share of losses in 2022. Fueled by drawdowns in both the equity and fixed-income markets, advisors and investors are now thinking twice about the following a 60% allocation in stocks and a 40% allocation in bonds. However, there could be a fix. According to fixed income specialist David Norris, the 60/40 portfolio split should be flipped and focused on short-term bonds. Norris, head of U.S. Credit at TwentyFour Asset Management, told Financial Advisor Magazine that “the bond side of that reversal should be anchored in short-duration bonds.” Norris said that “the rate cycle we are in now, with a lot of volatility and inflation, has created a fixed income market with rates we have not seen for a decade. Yields for short-duration bonds are very attractive now.” Norris is not wrong; U.S. short-term government bonds are paying more than 4.5% right now. A focus on short-term bonds should help investors better navigate the current volatility in the market.

Finsum:A bond strategist at TwentyFour Asset Management believes that the 60/40 portfolio should be flipped and focused on short-term bonds.

While income investors are certainly enjoying higher yields this year, the past decade had not been as kind. The low to flat interest rates over the past ten years may have helped propel the economy and markets since the financial crisis, but they also made it quite difficult for investors to find income. So, Wall Street firms got creative and created complex investment products that offered higher yields. But with rates rising this year, those same products are putting firms at risk, which is why they're jostling to hedge those positions by investing in derivatives that benefit from higher volatility in the market. However, those derivatives are making volatility in the US government bond market even worse. Treasuries were already experiencing massive swings as investors bought derivatives to lessen their bond risk, while dealers made long-volatility bets to hedge their own exposure. This combination led to a huge jump in the MOVE Index, which measures the implied volatility of Treasuries via options pricing. In October, the index breached 160, which is near the highest level since the financial crisis. With additional money betting on the ups and downs of bond yields, this is only going to add more fuel to the fire.

Finsum:As firms increase in their purchases of volatility-linked derivatives to hedge risk, the treasury market is expected to become even more volatile.