Displaying items by tag: debt

U.S. Treasury yields plummeted, particularly on short-term notes, after July’s jobs report came in significantly weaker than expected, reigniting investor expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut. 

The two-year yield dropped 25 basis points to 3.71%, its steepest one-day fall in a year, as traders priced in an 80% chance of a rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting. The labor data showed just 73,000 jobs added in July, well below forecasts, and revisions to prior months brought the three-month hiring average to a pandemic-era low of 35,000. 

The market’s reaction signaled a dramatic pivot in sentiment, further fueled by political pressure from President Trump and dovish dissent from two Fed governors. Treasury futures volumes surged as traders abandoned flattening yield curve bets, and CreditSights analysts now anticipate a 50-basis-point rate cut in September, with more to follow by year-end. 

Finsum: The Fed can afford aggressive easing without stoking inflation, setting the stage for a bold monetary policy shift.

After Moody’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, investors sold off government bonds, driving long-term Treasury yields sharply higher. This spike in yields raises borrowing costs for consumers and businesses alike, potentially slowing economic growth. 

Analysts warned that higher rates could ripple across mortgages, auto loans, and business financing, putting pressure on spending and investment. While credit downgrades by S&P and Fitch in past years had limited long-term economic impact, the timing of Moody’s move—amid heightened bond market volatility and mounting national debt—has amplified market anxiety. 

Some experts view the downgrade as a long-anticipated but symbolically important warning about unsustainable fiscal trends. Still, markets showed resilience, with equities rebounding by midday and Treasury yields pulling back slightly from their highs.

Finsum: Are equities investors neglecting the proper risk to US debt right now? Investors should keep close tabs on how this evolves

The rise of private credit has reshaped the landscape of speculative-grade debt, absorbing many of the riskiest borrowers that once relied on public high-yield bonds. With banks retreating from direct lending due to regulatory constraints, private credit firms have stepped in, fueling a market now worth $2.5 trillion globally. 

This shift has left the high-yield bond market with a stronger credit profile, narrowing yield spreads and reducing volatility. However, private credit’s lack of transparency means that credit risk hasn’t disappeared—it has simply moved to a space where prices and risks are less visible. 

While public high-yield bonds have become scarcer and more expensive, some riskier borrowers are returning to public markets through structured investment vehicles. Ultimately, as economic conditions shift, both public and private debt markets may face renewed pressures, exposing hidden risks within private credit’s rapid expansion.

FINSUM: Though private credit obscures some risks, economic stress could still expose vulnerabilities across both public and private debt markets.

Interest rates are on the decline, yet economic growth remains steady. As the year wraps up, investors are feeling optimistic despite some slowdown in growth, which is occurring gradually rather than sharply. 

With more clarity around interest rate movements, Alliance Bernstein anticipate increased investor confidence, which should spur capital formation and boost private market transactions. Lower borrowing costs, following the sharp rise in recent years, are expected to encourage mergers and acquisitions as well as demand for middle market loans. 

Additionally, the trend of bank disintermediation is creating new opportunities for private credit investors to diversify and grow their portfolios. Overall, navigating this evolving economic landscape will require a focus on quality and thoughtful diversification to manage risks effectively.

Finsum: We expect lower rates to facilitate further expansion of private credit as there is more consumer spending to support investments. 

Golub Capital is increasingly active in trading private credit deals, reflecting a broader trend in the industry as interest in secondary markets for direct loans grows. The firm traded approximately $1 billion in private debt during the first half of the year, positioning itself as a key player alongside others like JPMorgan Chase. 

While secondary trading in the $1.7 trillion private credit market remains relatively uncommon, there's growing demand for liquidity and flexibility among investors. However, some industry participants argue that trading could undermine the appeal of direct lending, which traditionally offers privacy and stability. 

Despite this, Golub and other firms are exploring these markets, balancing the benefits of liquidity with the traditional advantages of private credit.

Finsum: For investors not concerned with liquidity, private credit could prove a strong investment in this fall cycle.