Wealth Management
JPMorgan shared its outlook for fixed income in Q4. Its two base case scenarios, each with 50% probability, are below-trend growth and a recession. The bank also cut the odds of a crisis to zero due to inflation pressures moderating.
They believe the economy is on a soft-landing trajectory but warn that there are many similarities between a ‘soft landing’ and the early stages of a recession, meaning that investors should remain vigilant despite recent constructive developments.
The major risk to the outlook is inflation re-igniting which could result in more hikes and extend the duration of hawkish monetary policy. The next few months may be a challenge due to the headwinds from a slowing economy and high rates. Therefore, JPMorgan recommends short-duration, securitized credit to take advantage of generous yields while minimizing duration and default risk.
From a longer-term perspective, they see an opportunity to buy the dip in fixed income as both recessions and sub-trend growth environments are bullish for the asset class. There is uncertainty with regards to timing given that the Fed is in a ‘wait and see’ mode. Yet, history is clear that bonds will catch a strong bid once it’s evident that the Fed is done hiking.
Finsum: JPMorgan shared its Q4 fixed income outlook. Its two base-case scenarios are a recession and a period of below-trend growth.
The fixed income complex saw further losses following the September jobs report which showed that the US economy added nearly twice as many jobs than consensus expectations. Additionally, July and August payrolls were revised higher by a cumulative 119,000. In concert, this data refutes the notion that the jobs market is losing momentum.
The heaviest losses were felt in longer duration bonds, while shorter duration notes had mild weakness. This is a continuation of the major trend of the last couple of months which has seen the yield curve flatten due to a breakout in longer-term yields to the highest levels in 16 years. The major impetus for this move is the market reducing the odds of a recession and rate cuts in 2024 given that the economy has performed better than expected, while inflation has seemingly plateaued at high levels.
The bullish case for fixed income rests on the economy or inflation rolling over. In terms of the economy, there certainly is evidence of decelaration but nothing to indicate sufficient contraction that would cause the Fed to pivot. Regarding inflation, there are some positives with moderation in wage growth and rents, however this has been offset by rising energy prices and concerns that the autoworkers strike will lead to an increase in used and new vehicle prices.
Finsum: Fixed income was down following the September jobs report which was surprisingly positive further reducing the odds of a recession in the first half of 2024.
Many advisors aspire to work with high net worth clients. However, this is certainly a competitive market since these clients will have more assets and require more sophisticated strategies and advice. Additionally, high net worth clients will be more demanding in terms of time and the type of services provided. And, it will be more difficult to retain these clients as other advisors may look to poach them.
Yet, there are some methods that you can apply to increase your chances of success. The first step is to have a specialized niche such as estate planning or tax management or even focusing on a particular profession such as doctors or lawyers. Offering specific and specialized services and advice is likely to appeal to high net worth clients and increase your chances of referrals.
Once you’ve picked a niche, the next step is to refine your message and brand. In part, this is about figuring out your unique value proposition relative to other advisors. This includes how you do business, and how you communicate with clients. Often, high net worth clients value regular communication, appreciate being offered a variety of options, and want to gain a deeper understanding of the reasoning behind advice offered.
Finsum: Many advisors aspire to work with high net worth clients. Here are some tips to increase your chances of success.
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A lot of conventional wisdom regarding investing and wealth management has been questioned over the past couple of years. The best example is the traditional 60/40 portfolio. In the last couple of decades, this mix has been sufficient for returns and diversification.
However, this is clearly not the case in the current environment of high inflation and rates, as both delivered poor returns in 2022. In recent months, long-duration bonds have added to their losses, while equity performance has been mixed. The idea that a portfolio of just bonds and equities can deliver proper diversification is no longer valid.
Given that we have ostensibly entered a new era, advisors and investors have to be willing to rethink their assumptions and challenge conventional wisdom. One potential solution is the use of model portfolios.
Model portfolios can be used to add exposure to more asset classes which are truly non-correlated. These include commodities, foreign currencies, real estate, quant strategies, alternative investments, private credit, etc.
Allocations to these areas can lead to a truly diversified portfolio that can sustain performance in all types of environments with the appropriate level of risk. Additionally, advisors can offer more personalized products for their clients that are suitable for a wide variety of goals and needs.
Finsum: For decades, 60/40 has worked in terms of diversification and returns. This may no longer be the case if we are in a period of entrenched inflation and higher rates.
Financial advisors have so many considerations as they guide their clients into a secure retirement. Increasingly, ‘longevity risk’ is an essential factor since people are living longer lives. Obviously this is a positive, but it does mean that plans need to be appropriately adjusted.
Kelli Hueler, the CEO and founder of Hueler Cos., believes that annuities can often be an effective solution to bridge the gap. She is an advocate for lifetime annuity products and believes the current marketplace is the best it's been in decades.
For some time, there had been a bias against annuities from investors and advisors, but this thinking is being challenged especially as we are in a new economic regime of high interest rates and stubbornly elevated levels of inflation. Therefore, the same strategies that worked from 1980 to 2020 when rates were constantly drifting lower, may no longer work.
In addition to longevity risk, the dearth of pensions is another reason that the demand for annuities should continue to rise. And, possibly the most important factor is that due to high rates, annuities are actually paying out meaningful income streams to owners. While there are many downsides to the current economic environment, one silver lining is that annuities are offering a low-risk, robust value proposition.
Finsum: There are many downsides to the current economic environment, yet one silver lining is that annuities are once again offering healthy income streams to owners.
A bad ending can ruin a movie or a TV series, just ask any Game of Thrones viewer. The same applies to any business including financial advisory practices. A great run can be marred by a messy and unorganized ending.
However, it’s easy to understand why an advisor laser-focused on building and operating a business may not put the same intensity or focus into succession planning. After all, there are many heavy decisions that have to be made, and each decision has major implications. So, it’s understandable why succession planning can be neglected.
Nevertheless, it’s clear that succession planning is essential. In the same way that financial planning increases the odds that someone can reach their retirement goals, succession planning can help you maximize the value of a practice, smooth the transition for clients, and give employees peace of mind.
While there are many elements to effective succession planning, the biggest ingredient is transparency throughout the process with clients, employees, and other stakeholders. This will prevent anyone from being surprised by the outcome and will also lead to more understanding especially as it’s likely that the succession plan could have multiple iterations depending on circumstances and developments.
Finsum: Succession planning is essential for an advisor but an important key is transparency during the process.