Wealth Management
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points next week and again in December, according to a Reuters poll of economists, reflecting a shift toward additional easing amid economic uncertainty.
The move follows the Fed’s first rate cut since December, as policymakers prioritize stabilizing the labor market over curbing inflation that remains above target. Nearly all economists surveyed, 115 out of 117, anticipate the federal funds rate will drop to a range of 3.75%–4.00% on October 29, while 71% expect another quarter-point cut in December.
However, economists remain sharply divided on where rates will stand by the end of next year, with forecasts ranging between 2.25% and 4.00%, reflecting uncertainty over the economy’s trajectory and the pending succession of Chair Jerome Powell. Despite the uncertainty, markets have already fully priced in two more cuts
Finsum: The Fed faces a delicate balancing act as it weighs persistent inflation against signs of labor market softness, with some officials emphasizing job stability while others warn of reigniting price pressures.
Collective Investment Trusts (CITs) are rapidly reshaping the retirement landscape, becoming a major alternative to mutual funds across defined contribution plans due to their lower fees and growing accessibility. CITs now hold over $5 trillion in assets, representing nearly 30% of DC plan assets, up sharply from just over a decade ago.
Their rise is largely driven by cost efficiency, with fees that can be half those of comparable mutual funds, providing long-term savings potential for plan participants. Once limited to large retirement plans, CITs are now gaining traction among smaller plans, helped by lower investment minimums and broader recordkeeper availability.
Even so, ongoing legislative efforts,such as the Retirement Fairness for Charities and Educational Institutions Act, could expand CIT access further, reinforcing their growing role in retirement investing.
Finsum: These vehicles could be right for a variety of retirement plans for client.
U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply on Thursday, with the 10-year yield dropping below 4% following a weaker-than-expected Philadelphia Fed survey showing deteriorating regional economic conditions. The 10-year Treasury yield declined over 7 basis points to 3.98%, while the 2-year yield dropped to 3.42% and the 30-year fell to 4.59%, marking their lowest levels in months.
The decline came as stocks tumbled, led by bank shares, amid growing concern over bad loans, trade tensions, and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. With the shutdown delaying key economic reports, investors are turning to Fed speeches for clues ahead of the October 28–29 FOMC meeting, where futures markets now overwhelmingly price in a 25-basis-point rate cut.
Federal Reserve officials offered conflicting views on how quickly to cut interest rates given a weakening labor market and geopolitical uncertainty.
Finsum: Now could be the time to jump on treasuries as yields slump and prices are driven up on the uncertainty.
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Outcome-based ETFs, launched in 2018, have surged past $70 billion in assets under management as investors embrace structured approaches to manage risk and return. About 98% of assets are in buffer strategies ranging from 9% to 100%, primarily tied to the S&P 500 Index via FLEX options.
During April 2025’s market volatility, investors shifted heavily toward 15–40% buffers, signaling stronger demand for deeper downside protection. “Max buffer” or principal-protected ETFs, offering full downside coverage, have become the fastest-growing segment, with assets up over 45% year-to-date.
New entrants like Goldman Sachs Asset Management and McCarthy & Cox are innovating with dynamic reference assets and even bitcoin-linked outcomes.
Finsum: With more managers entering the space and product innovation accelerating, outcome-based ETFs are reshaping how investors approach portfolio construction.
The rise of artificial intelligence has sparked an unexpected boom in utility ETFs, driven by soaring electricity demand from power-hungry data centers supporting AI infrastructure. Funds like XLU, VPU, IDU, and FUTY have gained over 7% in the past year, outperforming the broader utility sector.
Data centers already consume about 1.5% of global electricity, with the U.S. accounting for nearly half, and the International Energy Agency projects this demand to double by 2030. This surge positions electric utilities as critical enablers of the AI revolution, creating a long-term growth runway supported by regulated rate increases and infrastructure expansion.
Investors have turned to utility ETFs as a way to gain exposure to companies powering the digital economy, particularly U.S. giants like NextEra Energy and The Southern Company.
Finsum: As AI adoption accelerates, utility ETFs stand to benefit from a sustained and predictable rise in electricity demand.
Bank of America is urging investors to focus on high-quality value stocks as markets show signs of overheating and sentiment shifts toward more defensive strategies. In its Small/Mid Cap Factors report, the bank noted that while small-cap value stocks lagged in the third quarter, they are now positioned for a rebound.
Analysts pointed to several signals suggesting stronger prospects for value stocks, including the U.S. Regime Indicator’s recent shift to a “Recovery” phase, historically favorable for value leadership.
The report also emphasized that value stocks tend to outperform during Federal Reserve rate-cut cycles, similar to the current environment. Bank of America highlighted that value has started to outperform in mid caps, even as growth stocks continue to rally, noting that the “low-quality rally is in its later innings.”
Finsum: Turning to fundamentals could be the play with rate cuts on the horizon and an shaky economy.