Wealth Management
In theory, active fixed income offers the best of both worlds. It has all the inherent benefits of an ETF structure leading to more liquidity, transparency, and lower costs, but it still gives managers flexibility to find the best opportunities in the fixed income space.
The category is seeing substantial growth in terms of inflows and new issues. Institutions and advisors are becoming increasingly comfortable with the asset class. Additionally, it’s well suited for this particular moment given the uncertainty about the Fed and the economy’s direction which should create more opportunities for alpha for active managers.
The latest mega-institutions to jump on the trend is the Bank of Japan. The central bank is shifting $62 billion of passively managed fixed income into active management. It believes this will help it finetune the risk profile of their holdings. It’s also consistent with its recent policy to gradually let yields rise in an effort to combat inflation.
In fact, this change in monetary policy is also contributing to bond market volatility. And, this jump in volatility is what is leading to opportunities for active managers that the Bank of Japan is keen to capitalize upon. The Bank of Japan is considered a trailblazer, so it will be interesting to see if other central banks follow suit and increase allocations to active fixed income.
Finsum: The Bank of Japan is converting some of its passive fixed income holdings into active fixed income. Find out why and whether other central banks will follow.
Fixed income markets have faced a major headwind over the last 21 months given the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes. Regardless, money poured into fixed income ETFs at a record pace even outpacing equity ETFs for the first time in history. Investors were willing to overlook poor, near-term performance due to attractive yields and a shaky economic outlook.
Now, this trend could accelerate further given that the Fed seems to be in the final innings of its tightening campaign, while concerns about valuation in equities linger. Therefore, many believe that the growth of fixed income ETFs relative to equity ETFs is not a blip, but the start of a multiyear trend. And, asset managers are responding with a bevy of new fixed income ETF launches.
Overall, inflows to fixed income ETFs are up nearly 10% compared to last year. Many are eager to lock in these elevated yields especially in areas with lower risk like Treasuries. Of course, the major challenge for fixed income investors is assessing if a pivot in policy will arrive imminently or are we due for a period of ‘higher for longer’. In the latter scenario, short-duration bonds will outperform, while long-duration will struggle.
Finsum: Fixed income ETFs are seeing a surge in new issuances and inflows. Find out why many expect this trend to continue over the next few years.
John Olsen, the founder and president of Olsen Annuity Education and the author of ‘The Advisor’s Guide to Annuities’ recently spoke with ThinkAdvisor to share some insights on how advisors can sell more annuities.
His advice is somewhat counterintuitive. He believes the ‘secret to secret to selling annuities is to give up on trying to sell annuities.’ This is because an advisor must always think about a client’s financial plan and not about potential product solutions. Instead, advisors should consider all financial products, including annuities, like tools to accomplish a job rather than the goal.
Therefore, an advisor’s task is to gain a complete understanding of your clients which includes their financial situation, personality, risk tolerance, lifestyle factors, health considerations, etc., to determine what ‘tool’ will be the most effective. He also believes that most of an advisors’ job is about understanding their clients’ emotions rather than quantitative factors.
Most financial plans fail because advisors don’t understand that emotions are ultimately what drive decision-making. And, a plan that doesn’t take into account these ‘soft’ factors is bound to fail as most decision-making is ultimately driven by emotions.
Finsum: John Olsen, the founder of Olsen Annuity Education and one of the top annuity salesman in past years, shares some tips on selling annuities.
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The efficient frontier is defined as the set of portfolios which maximizes expected return for a given level of risk. The theory was developed by Nobel laureate and economist, Harry Markowitz, and has become an integral part of modern portfolio theory. The most common application of the efficient frontier is to optimize the amount of diversification in each portfolio.
Efficient frontier is used to figure out the ideal balance between returns and risk through the use of diversification. It’s based on historical data and correlations to calculate theoretical returns and ideal weightings in a portfolio.
It can help investors figure out how much diversification is necessary given an individual’s risk tolerance. Greater diversification can dampen variance and risk while still maintaining the same level of long-term returns.
Efficient frontier is used to construct model portfolios to ensure sufficient diversification and appropriate rebalancing. They can also help identify when the portfolio is getting diminishing returns from taking on risk.
One drawback to the efficient frontier is that all of these calculations are based on historical data, and there is no guarantee that future returns will be similar to that of the past. It also assumes that returns follow a normal distribution, however this has simply not been the case in many years.
Finsum: Efficient frontier is used by portfolio managers to determine the ideal balance between returns and risk. It’s an integral aspect of modern portfolio management theory.
2022 was a dismal year for rookie financial advisors as there was a 72% failure rate. In total, the number of new financial advisors grew by 2,579 which was barely more than the number of advisors who retired.
Overall, there are 288,555 financial advisors in the US. A pressing concern is that the advisor workforce is rapidly aging. According to a recent report from Cerulli, 37% of advisors plan to retire over the next decade. This amounts to 106,264 advisors who will be exiting the industry.
At current growth rates, there is little chance of this shortfall being made up unless there is some radical change in training programs or recruitment efforts. Currently, 64% of new advisors are recruited through referrals.
Financial services companies will have to broaden their horizons if they want to educate young people about this career path especially as the role has shifted significantly over the last couple of decades from focusing on stock-picking and investment management to goals-based planning.
For younger advisors, it constitutes a significant opportunity to gather clients and assets. For firms, it will likely be a major challenge and likely continue fueling the recruiting frenzy.
Finsum: It’s estimated that nearly 40% of financial advisors will be exiting the industry over the next decade. This will create major challenges and opportunities for players in the industry.
In a strategy piece for BNP Paribas, Daniel Morris and Olivier de Larouziere share some thoughts on the fixed income market and recent developments over the last couple of months which has resulted in them revising their outlook for the near and intermediate-terms.
The biggest surprise has been the resilience of the US economy in 2023 despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes. In essence, the odds of a ‘soft landing’ continue to tick higher as inflationary pressures continue to ebb in key areas. Recent weakness out of China is another indication that the global economy is decelerating, but it also has positive implications for inflation.
However, the Fed has not pivoted in terms of its policy given that inflation remains uncomfortably high in certain areas like services and wages. This, in concert with an economy that continues to expand, is the major reason why a Fed pivot is unlikely till sometime next year.
BNP remains unsure about the terminal rate this cycle. But, it believes it will be higher than what they were forecasting a few months ago. One factor in this incorrect forecast is that the bank failed to account for the impact of higher government spending and large deficits which is also contributing to economic strength.
Finsum: BNP Paribas shared its fixed income outlook for the rest of the year. Overall, the bank remains bullish but believes that any pivot in terms of Fed policy is not near.