(New York)

Despite the hopes of investors, yields moved higher yesterday, with ten-year Treasury yields now back above 3%. For a while the momentum higher had been stemmed, but yesterday saw yields move sharply upwards. The move got the Dollar back on track, but it left equities nervous about what may lay ahead. Some market watchers say the recent market moves are a preamble to a correction.

FINSUM: Markets (stock and bonds) are bouncing all around, essentially momentum-less. We think things are going to be this way until a strong narrative takes hold—either trade war and recession, or something that renews the bull market.

(New York)

Bank stocks have had somewhat of a rough time this year. Like the rest the of the market they have been subject to turbulence. However, Barron’s says that clear sailing might lay ahead, as the stocks are looking less risky and likely to have more gains. The reason why is that bank stocks have been showing less and less beta lately, meaning they are trading at less relative volatility to the market than previously. This will lower their cost of capital and keep things steadier as rates rise, which will be bullish for performance. According to one research analyst, “Higher rates will have a positive impact on earnings, loan growth appears to be picking up, and we expect further regulatory relief”.

FINSUM: Given that higher rates improve net interest margins for banks, and the fact that there is significant regulatory relief occurring, we are feeling optimistic.

(New York)

The Trump era of deregulation is really starting to play out for the financial services industry. On top of the collapse of the Volcker rule, banks might be about to enjoy a major concession from regulators: the assumption that short-term trades are automatically a violation of the rule. The Fed and other regulators are planning to drop the assumption that a position held by a bank for less than 60 days is a violation of the Volcker rule.

FINSUM: This would be a major development as banks would be left to comply with the rule on their own terms. That shifts the burden of proof onto regulators, who would now need to prove a trade was a violation.

(Washington)

Advisors have recently been feeling relieved about the fifth circuit court ruling that struck down the DOL’s version of the fiduciary rule. However, it may not be time to jump for joy yet. The fifth circuit is supposed to issue a mandate which vacates the rule, which takes it out of force. It is unclear why the fifth circuit court has not done so yet, but it is starting to make the industry nervous.

FINSUM: Most say the court simply has not gotten around to issuing the mandate yet, but that seems odd given it has been two months since the verdict. The next date to watch is May 16th, as that is the deadline for states and other entities to apply for appeals to the ruling.

(New York)

There is a lot of scuttlebutt in the wealth management industry about fee compression. The narrative is that there is much price competition across the industry and investment advisors are having to cut their fees and add services to stay relevant. Well, the reality is fees are actually moving higher. According to a new survey from FinancialAdvisor, many advisors are actually hiking fees between 10 to 25 basis points. The finding adds to another survey from Pershing which found that 84% of advisors had not changed fees in 2017, and those that did had hiked rather than cutting.

FINSUM: This is a very healthy sign for the industry, especially given the fee war going on in ETFs and the asset management industry.