Displaying items by tag: stocks

(New York)

Banks are soon to be reporting their fourth quarter earnings, and Barron’s has put out an article advising investors on which stocks to buy ahead of the release. JPMorgan will report first and its numbers will have big implications for the sector. The piece cites analysts and says that Wells Fargo, Zion’s Bank, and Suntrust Bank look likely to do well, while investors should be underweight Goldman Sachs, CIT Group, and US Bancorp.

FINSUM: The tax package is going to be an interesting part of bank earnings both this earnings season and next, as some banks may do unusual tax maneuvers.

(New York)

If you are sitting on the sidelines, or want to sit on the sidelines but fear missing out on gains, then you may be exactly representative of the market. Bloomberg argues that part of what is fueling the self-perpetuating cycle of market gains right now is what it calls FOMO, or fear of missing out. At present, the fear of missing gains seems to have eclipsed all downside fears, which could be a sign of euphoria, or part of what Wall Street terms a “melt up”. Bloomberg argues that the really scary part of the current melt up is that it doesn’t really have to do with the economy, it is just psychologically driven.

FINSUM: The market is valued so richly that one can’t help but look over their shoulder, but the doom and gloom stories are still getting old. That said, the CAPE ratio (you know, Shiller’s ratio), is the highest it has EVER been (yes, greater than 1929).

(New York)

Despite reaching a much more mature stage of their development, ETFs, overall, are still on a torrid run. But what is next for the all-consuming asset class? Barron’s argues there are a few trends to watch. The first will be an expansion of fixed income ETFs, which have grown considerably, but have much more room to run. Secondly, advisors might have bigger clout in the sector, as RIAs may start converting their own strategies into ETFs. Also, the further hybridizing of passive/active funds may go faster as Vanguard is debuting a new range of very low-cost active ETFs.

FINSUM: Mentally we sort of compare ETFs to the growth of Amazon. The question is where WON’T they head next.

(New York)

Call it euphoria, irrational exuberance, or a melt-up, everyone is looking for signs that market valuations are out of control and approaching a downfall. Some signs have finally started to show up in the last few months as stocks have steadily gained. One such sign can be seen across the market—the elimination of hedges. Consistently low volatility has reduced fear in investors’ hearts to the point that many are abandoning puts and other downside protections. They are trying to chase the performance of passives and don’t want to “waste” money on hedging. The chief market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald comments on the trend that “I haven’t seen hedging activity this light since the end of the financial crisis … It started in late 2016 and accelerated in the second half of the year”.

FINSUM: This is typical late cycle imprudent behavior, but chasing benchmark performance is a good explanation of the trend.

(San Francisco)

There is no doubt about it, the FAANG stocks—Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google—were a huge force is delivering 2017’s great return. But it might be time to remove them from your portfolio, at least as Barron’s argues it. And if not removing them, then at least reducing exposure. The stocks count for a huge portion of many funds, so investors may have more exposure than they realize. The stocks have seen a massive run-up in valuation, but that makes them look increasingly vulnerable. Barron’s also cites the increasing risk of regulation of the sector, which could prove a weight on values.

FINSUM: The tech industry has grown very large and dominant, and seems to have its own cycle versus the rest of the economy, all of which makes it very hard to call a top. There are some dark clouds gathering on the horizon, but nothing looks like it is imminently going to bring the FAANGs down.