Displaying items by tag: yields

Stringer Asset Management shared some thoughts on fixed income, monetary policy, and the economy. The firm notes that while inflation has remained stubbornly above the Fed’s desired levels, it will move closer to the Fed’s target over time. One factor is that the M2 money supply is starting to decline, which is a leading indicator of inflation. Another is that fiscal stimulus effects are finally waning.

Thus, Stringer still sees rate cuts later this year, although it’s difficult to predict the timing and number of cuts, creating a challenging environment for bond investors. During this period of uncertainty, it favors active strategies to help reduce risk and capitalize on inefficiencies. Active managers are also better equipped to navigate a more dynamic environment full of risks, such as the upcoming election and a tenuous geopolitical situation.

Stringer recommends that investors diversify their holdings across the yield curve and credit risk factors. It favors a balance of riskier credit with Treasuries. This is because the firm expects the bond market to remain static until the Fed actually cuts. It’s also relatively optimistic for the economy given that household balance sheets are in good shape, corporate earnings remain strong, and the unemployment rate remains low. These conditions are conducive to a favorable environment for high-yield debt. 

Finsum: Stringer Asset Management believes that fixed income investors should pursue an active approach given various uncertainties around the economy, inflation, and monetary policy in addition to geopolitical risks.

In Q1, inflows into active fixed income ETFs exceeded inflows into passive ETFs at $90 billion vs. $69 billion. This is a remarkable change from last year, when active fixed income ETFs had net inflows of $19 billion vs. $279 billion for passive bond ETFs.  

Two major factors behind this development are an increase in uncertainty about the economy and monetary policy and yields above 5% for some of the most popular offerings. According to Ryan Murphy, the head of fixed income business development at Capital Group, this is the beginning of “a longer multi-quarter and potentially multi-year trend out of cash. Investors are getting the best compensation on fixed income in 20 years.” 

Flows could accelerate into bond funds as there is $6 trillion in money market funds once the Fed actually starts cutting rates. Yet, the current ‘wait and see’ period is challenging for fixed-income investors, but it’s an opportune moment for active strategies given opportunities to find distortions in prices and credit quality. Stephen Bartolini, portfolio manager at T. Rowe, notes, “The ability to not just blindly buy the index but be smarter and choose around security selection is critical at the moment.” 

Finsum: Active fixed income inflows were greater than inflows into passive fixed income ETFs. It’s a result of attractive yields and heightened uncertainty about the economy and monetary policy.    

Invesco recently completed its Q1 update on the landscape for alternative assets. In terms of private credit, the firm sees an improving environment due to a resilient economy, inflation trending lower, rate cuts later in the year, and expectations of liquidity events in private equity. Overall, it sees investors able to get attractive yields without compromising on credit quality. It expects overall yields to remain between 11 and 12% for the year for private credit investors. 

The firm sees opportunity in distressed debt and special situations to lend to ‘good companies’ with weakened balance sheets. It believes the higher rate environment has hurt smaller companies and that many of these companies are operationally sound but are ‘liquidity-constrained’, creating an opportunity to invest at attractive valuations. 

In terms of real assets, Invesco notes that fundamentals remain strong, for the most part, despite lower transaction volume and stresses created by the high-rate environment. It’s particularly bullish on real estate due to improving monetary conditions, which should support transaction volumes. Even during the downturn, income fundamentals remained robust across most categories. The firm sees sound fundamentals in most areas of real estate except for offices and overbuilding in some markets. Additionally, recent economic data has been supportive of a ‘soft landing’ for the economy, which is also bullish for real estate. 

Finsum: Invesco shared its thoughts on alternative assets. Overall, it’s bullish on the asset class and sees the most upside for real estate and private credit due to its positive forecast for the economy in 2024.

Emerging market bonds are offering a compelling opportunity for investors to lock in attractive yields while also having the potential for price appreciation. While there are many ways for investors to get exposure, the Vanguard Emerging Markets Government Bond ETF (VWOB) is one of the most liquid and diversified options. It currently pays a yield of 6.8% with an expense ratio of 0.20% and tracks the Bloomberg USD Emerging Markets Government RIC Capped Index.

Investing in emerging markets certainly means more risk due to lower credit quality, however the fundamentals are supportive of continued strong performance in 2024, while macro trends are favorable. JPMorgan estimates that emerging market economies will expand 3.9% this year, outpacing the 2.9% growth rate of developed market economies. It sees lower inflationary pressures due to weaker commodity prices which means that emerging market central banks should be able to cut rates, generating a tailwind for emerging market debt.  

In 2023, emerging market bonds were up 11%. JPMorgan is forecasting that the category should also have double-digit returns in 2024. It believes the major risk to this outlook is inflation not falling as expected which limits the ability of central banks to cut rates, especially since the market has already priced in modest easing. 

Finsum: Emerging market debt has major upside for 2024 due to attractive yields, strong fundamentals, and expectations that interest rates will be lowered. 

The stronger than expected jobs report and inflation data have punctured the narrative that the Fed was going to imminently embark on a series of rate cuts. As a result, volatility has spiked in fixed income as the market has dialed back expectations for the number of hikes in 2024.

Investors can still take advantage of the attractive yields in bonds while managing volatility with the American Century Short Duration Strategic Income ETF (SDSI) and the Avantis Short-Term Fixed Income ETF (AVSF). Both offer higher yields than money markets while also being less exposed to interest rate risk which has led to steeper losses in longer-duration bonds YTD. 

SDSI is an active fund with over 200 holdings and an expense ratio of 0.33%. Its current 30-day yield is 5.2%. The ETF’s primary focus is generating income by investing in short-duration debt in multiple segments such as notes, government securities, asset-backed securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds. 

AVSF is even more diversified with more than 300 holdings and has a lower expense ratio at 0.15%. It has a 4.7% 30-day yield. AVSF invests in short-duration, investment-grade debt from US and non-US issuers. The fund’s aim is to invest in bonds that offer the highest expected returns by analyzing a bond’s income and capital appreciation potential. 

Finsum: Recent developments have led to a material increase in fixed income volatility. Investors can shield themselves from this volatility while still taking advantage of attractive yields with short-duration bond ETFs.