(New York)
They had been paused for a couple of months, but in the last week, things started to change. Treasury yields once again broke above the 3% barrier last Wednesday. The number is a psychologically important and has proved a stalwart level for the yield to breakthrough. It did so earlier this year, before quickly falling back into the 2.8% range. Yields seemed to be pushed higher by a sharp rise in Japanese bonds yields following action by the BOJ.
FINSUM: Treasury yields are hard to handle right now. On the one hand, the economy looks fantastic, which should send them higher, but at the same time the Fed looks hawkish and the risk of recession seems to be rising, which would keep things in check.
(Washington)
In what could come as very welcome news for investors across all asset classes, Fed Chief Powell has indicated that the Fed may take a break from hikes for a while. The question is when this pause in hikes will occur, and the Fed is debating this internally. The central is expected to introduce the words “for now” in regards to its plan for near-term hikes, a new phrase that signals conditionality. According to a former Fed economist, “Given that there’s no visible inflation threat -- not in the data and not in the FOMC forecasts -- it makes sense to inject conditionality on future moves”.
FINSUM: We hate analyzing Fed speak, but a pause in hikes seems like a good idea to us. With inflation low, there is no reason for the Fed to forcefully invert the yield curve and cause a recession.
(Tokyo)
Bond yields had been rising quickly in the US. The rise seemed to come out of nowhere for American investors, but most analysts said the quick jump in ten-year yields was due to a possible policy change by the BOJ to a less accommodative stance. However, the BOJ announced today that it would make only very minor changes and would remain highly loose in its monetary approach. The bank said it would not join other global central bank’s in tightening policy, and would leave rates ultra low for an extended period.
FINSUM: This is good news for bond investors, as Japanese tightening was interpreted as a major threat. This should help keep US yields looking attractive versus global yields, which will in turn keep them lower.
(New York)
Investors may need to be very worried about stagnant bond yields. After many weeks of pause, bond yields finally look set to move higher. The ten-year Treasury is approaching 3% and as the good market mood and good economic news continues, it seems there could a surge higher in yields. European yields have also been moving sideways for some time. Improving trade relationships, great earnings, and good economic data mean that the bond market may react all at once in the near-term.
FINSUM: This is an interesting argument—bond yields have been quite stagnant despite good news, and they may ultimately react all at once. Seems plausible right now.
(Chicago)
Barron’s has put out an interesting article outlining a key correlation in the muni market. We thought it was worth some coverage. A new study out of the University of Illinois has found that muni bond yields tend to lose when local newspapers shut down. Local media often keep local government spending in check and work as a balance on corruption and mismanagement. A multi-year study of the muni market found that yields tended to rise when these papers shut down. The authors summarize “The loss of monitoring that results from newspaper closures is associated with increased government inefficiencies, including higher likelihoods of costly advance refundings and negotiated issues, and higher government wages, employees, and tax revenues”.
FINSUM: This makes perfect sense to us. The problem is that local newspapers have a bleak future at the moment, so the hopes of them serving as a watchdog in the future looks highly unlikely.
(New York)
There have been a lot of fears about the junk bond market both over the last few years and in recent months. Many worry what a rising rate period would mean for the sector. However, the bigger worry might actually be a recession. Bank of America Merrill Lynch has recently put out a report analyzing the sector, and they highlight a potentially big worry. As many know, over the last decade, companies have gorged on BBB rated bonds (the lowest rung of investment grade), issuing trillions worth. However, the big risk is that in a recession, default rates will surge, profits will fall, and many of those bonds will be downgraded into junk status. When that occurs, many investments funds will be obligated to sell them because of mandates, which could cause a massive exodus and big losses.
FINSUM: The giant BBB market, which has been the superstar of the high yield sector since the Crisis, seems like it might be poised for a serious rough patch come the next recession.
(New York)
US Treasury bonds got walloped yesterday. Yields on the ten-year fell over 10 basis points following weeks of relative calm. The big move happened in the early afternoon yesterday, and sent ETFs sharply lower. The jump in yields was not contained to the 10-year either, as 20-years and 2-years rose as well. The big question is why the sharp move occurred. Analysts are saying it was actually overseas influences that drove the losses. In particular, the Bank of Japan announced a policy change that would send rates higher, which spilled over to the US. Further, some better news on the trade war front might have sent some money out of Treasuries after a flight to quality in previous weeks.
FINSUM: This is a really sharp move for it to have been from overseas alone, as these kind of big jumps usually move in reverse. It is hard to draw any conclusions, but it may indicate there are bigger losses to come.
(New York)
There is a new big asset class getting very popular on Wall Street. You may think it is some new esoteric structured credit or volatility product. But guess what, it is just about the oldest product in the world—business lending, or “direct-lending” as it is being called. It has been increasingly apparent on the fringes that big Wall Street players, like Goldman Sachs, have recently taken an interest in direct lending. Now, the whole Street is getting in on the action. Major private shops like KKR and others have started direct lending funds, and the area has returned handsomely, up over 20% this year. The idea of the funds is to lend to businesses and whose credit excludes them from the usual channels.
FINSUM: These funds seem likely to do well until a recession or period of deleveraging occurs, at which time they are likely to see high levels of defaults.
(New York)
The rise in yields across the world has seemed to stall over the last couple of months. Ten-year Treasuries are back under 2.9%, and while the yield curve is flattening, the risk of big losses from rising long-term yields seems to be mitigated. Not so fast. The Wall Street Journal is reporting that many of the world’s central banks are now aligning themselves with the Fed and are preparing to begin lifting rates. The pattern is emerging across both the developed and emerging markets (e.g. the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of India).
FINSUM: We think this could be a risk for US investors. The main reason why being that one of the things that has kept long-term yields low is demand from overseas investors for our relatively higher-yielding bonds. If that changes, there won’t be such a lid on Treasuries.
(New York)
Those seeking to buy income-focused investments have a dilemma on their hands right now. Is it safer to buy high-yielding blue chips like AT&T, or better to buy a diversified high yield fund? Barron’s tries to answer this question and gives a definitive opinion—the bond fund. While both may offer similar yields of between 5-6%, holding money in just one or a small handful of blue chips offers much more risk. Not only could dividends be cut, but underlying businesses could deteriorate. And without the benefit of diversification that a broad ETF offers, a portfolio could see heavy losses.
FINSUM: This is a good, basic article to share with any clients who ask why they are buying debt instead of just owning a few stocks.
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(New York)
All the focus in the fixed income world is currently centered around whether the yield curve will invert. However, investors should know something—the yield never inverts in municipal bonds. That’s right, the muni yield curve has never inverted. The reason why being that short-term munis are always very rich, with small supply and high demand. However, looking at longer-term yields, munis look like a great buy. While the average ten-year muni yield is only 2.43% versus 2.86% for Treasuries, for any investor in a tax bracket above 15%, buying munis makes more sense.
FINSUM: The current spread between ten-year munis and Treasury bonds makes the former look like a smart purchase right now, especially because the market seems to be in healthy shape.
(New York)
The current fixed income environment is very challenging. The yield curve continues to flatten, and long-term yields have stalled, yet could move higher at any point. One great way to play the situation is through floating rate notes and funds. One floating rate fund that has been very successful is the American Beacon Sound Point Floating Rate Income, which has a 5.7% annualized return over the last five years. This year it has returned 4.5% versus Vanguard Total Bond Market Index’s -0.1%. The fund specializes in floating rate bank loans, so the higher rates go, the more those loans pay.
FINSUM: Floating rate notes and funds seem like a really good approach in the current environment, and this one might be an excellent choice.
(New York)
Anybody who is worried about a pending bond bear market might take some solace in recent news. Bond markets are becoming increasingly skeptical of the Fed’s bullish stance on the economy, and traders believe there won’t be nearly as many rate hikes as the Fed says. The US has just seen a weak inflation report, and a flattening of the yield curve, both at home and in the Eurodollar market, spells ill for the economy. So while the Fed says it will continue to hike rates into 2020, top market analysts are saying things like “The markets are telling us that there is a pretty high risk of economic slowdown or recession at the end of 2019” (Janney Capital Management).
FINSUM: We think the economy will definitely start to weaken before 2020. Perhaps we will not have a deep recession, but we definitely don’t think there will be continuous hikes for the next year and a half, which is good news for bonds.
(New York)
Those who only pay causal attention to muni bonds might be scared away from the market by negative stories about big buildups in debt, bankruptcies, and a general erosion in credit quality. However, this year, nothing could be further from the truth. There has been a massive deleveraging of the sector in 2018, with total US muni bond issuance down a whopping 17% to-date, and on pace for 25% by the end of the year. The dearth of issuance has pushed yields down and prices up. “It’s a seller’s market”, says one muni bond analyst.
FINSUM: Part of the lack of new issuance is due to the federal tax changes, but nonetheless, the market is looking increasingly healthy.