Displaying items by tag: fixed income

Fixed income markets have faced a major headwind over the last 21 months given the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes. Regardless, money poured into fixed income ETFs at a record pace even outpacing equity ETFs for the first time in history. Investors were willing to overlook poor, near-term performance due to attractive yields and a shaky economic outlook.

Now, this trend could accelerate further given that the Fed seems to be in the final innings of its tightening campaign, while concerns about valuation in equities linger. Therefore, many believe that the growth of fixed income ETFs relative to equity ETFs is not a blip, but the start of a multiyear trend. And, asset managers are responding with a bevy of new fixed income ETF launches.

Overall, inflows to fixed income ETFs are up nearly 10% compared to last year. Many are eager to lock in these elevated yields especially in areas with lower risk like Treasuries. Of course, the major challenge for fixed income investors is assessing if a pivot in policy will arrive imminently or are we due for a period of ‘higher for longer’. In the latter scenario, short-duration bonds will outperform, while long-duration will struggle. 

Finsum: Fixed income ETFs are seeing a surge in new issuances and inflows. Find out why many expect this trend to continue over the next few years.

One of the biggest surprises of 2023 has been the resilience of the economy and inflation despite the Fed embarking on the most aggressive rate hike campaign in decades. For fixed income investors, it’s been a challenging environment. 

Inflows have been strong and sustained given higher rates and expectations that a recession was imminent. Yet, returns have been mixed especially with there being no change in the Fed’s stance despite some encouraging data on the inflation and economic fronts. Specifically, shorter duration bonds have outperformed, while longer duration bonds have underperformed.

According to Vanguard, it’s simply a case of short-term pain equating to longer-term gains. The selloff in fixed income will lead to higher returns over the intermediate and long-term while generating decent income for investors. Ironically, it’s an inverse of what we experienced over the past decade when bonds were in a decade-plus bull market due to the Fed’s dovish policies. In this environment, there was no value and limited income opportunities in the asset class. 

The firm recommends that investors have exposure to a mix of short and long-duration bonds. The factors that resulted in shorter duration outperformance are unlikely to continue especially given that the labor market is rapidly cooling and yields are at historically attractive levels. 

Finsum: Fixed income has been particularly challenging in 2023 due to the Fed continuing to hike rates. Here are Vanguard’s thoughts on how to navigate the market.

For Investment Week, Sarang Kulkarni, the Lead Portfolio Manager of the Vanguard Global Credit Bond Fund, shared some thoughts about active fixed income and the current state of markets. Overall, his goal is to identify and invest in the best credit opportunities to generate consistent, risk-adjusted returns over the long-term. He is agnostic in terms of geography, sector, duration, credit quality. Instead, the fund has a bottom-up approach with a bias towards value. 

Recently, the fund has been investing in European financials due to favorable valuations and an improving regulatory environment. Additionally, it sees improving credit trends in the consumer discretionary sector and believes there’s upside in the bonds of companies in this sector. 

In terms of its edge over other active managers, Kulkarni believes that other funds rely on betting on the direction of the bond market to ‘generate alpha’. Over the long-term, these strategies tend to underperform the benchmarks and can perform poorly in more volatile environments. 

In contrast, Vanguard seeks to generate alpha over an entire market cycle in a transparent way. It avoids beta even at the expense of short-term returns. The fund also seeks to replicate the risk-return profile of the asset class which is key to consistent, long-term performance.

Finsum: Sarang Kulkarni, the Lead Portfolio Manager of the Vanguard Global Credit Fund, shares some thoughts on active fixed income and what makes his fund unique relative to its competitors. 

A recent challenge for the market and economy has been the surge in long-term Treasury yields. It implies higher costs for borrowers and corporations and if it persists, would certainly lead to a spike in defaults at some point.

Some key factors behind the ascent are resilience in the economy and inflation, rate cut odds in 2023 being priced out, and expectations of increased Treasury supply in the coming months due to large deficits. 

Yet, there has been some relief in the fixed income market due to a series of dovish economic data. This includes the August nonfarm payrolls report, jobless claims, inflation, and consumer spending data. In essence, there were some who believed that the economy may have been entering a re-acceleration period as evidenced by the 10-year Treasury yield rising from 3.2% to 4.4% between April and August. 

Yet, this week’s economic data undermines this narrative. The August employment data shows that hiring is clearly slowing, wage gains are decelerating, and the unemployment rate ticked higher. The 10-year Treasury yield declined from 4.4% to 4.1% as the breakout gets faded. 

Just as those who were confident about a recession have continually been frustrated over the last couple of years, those who are looking for a re-acceleration of the economy are likely to be as well. 

Finsum: There was some relief for the fixed income market this week due to a series of dovish economic data which support the notion of continued economic deceleration.

Active fixed income ETFs are seeing strong inflows and a slew of new launches to capitalize on its increasing popularity. Some major drivers of demand are growing awareness and comfort from advisors and institutions, elevated yields, and outperformance on longer timeframes.

In addition to these secular drivers of demand, the asset class is benefitting from the current uncertainty around the economy and Fed policy. Active managers have more discretion in terms of duration and quality when selecting securities. This creates more alpha especially in a sideways market. 

The latest entrant in the active fixed income ETF space is Madison Investments which just launched the Madison Aggregate Bond ETF which invests in all types of bonds to generate superior long-term risk-adjusted performance. It believes that the fund will have lower risk than benchmarks in addition to income through risk-conscious investing. 

The ETF has an expense ratio of 0.40% and marks its third ETF launch and first fixed income ETF. It will be co-managed by Mike Sanders, the Head of Fixed Income, and Allen Olson, Portfolio Manager. The fund will hold between 100 and 500 securities with up to 10% in non-investment grade credit. Currently, it has an average duration of 6.3 years.

Finsum: Madison Investments launched the Madison Aggregate Bond ETF which is an active ETF that aims to have lower risk than benchmarks.