Bonds: Total Market
Following the bouncing…fixed income ETFs? On the heels of last year, during which fixed income funds took a licking, they’re rediscovering their mojo. That stems at least partially from an inverted yield curve, according to cnbc.com.
In January in alone? Well, bond exchange-traded funds accumulated $20 billion. By contrast, all of last year, the total came to around $200 billion in bonds.
“There’s now income within the fixed income ETFs that are available,” Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, told Mike Santoli on CNBC’s “ETF Edge.” “We’ve seen higher-quality investment-grade corporate bond ETFs. We’ve seen high-yield fixed income ETFs see inflows this year, as well as some of the safer products.”
A rebound, seems to be in -- of all places -- the air, for bonds this year, in bonds, according to schwab.com. The returns in the fixed income markets, according to schawb.com.
Despite a host of challenges – including a tumultuous global economy and an unstable U.S political climate, also a factor abroad – this year, there are opportunities for the bond market that translate into handsome yields for investors at lower risk than has been the case for years.
Volatility? For at least the immediate future, when it comes to the market, it seems to about the only stable thing going.
Volatility’s on pace to remain on the high side – with the volatility index averaging about 25, according to jpmorgan.com. As the Fed over squeezes into weaker fundamentals, the S&P’s expected to again test last year’s lows.
“In the first half of 2023, we expect the S&P 500 to re-test the lows of 2022 as the Fed overtightens into weaker fundamentals. This sell-off combined with disinflation, rising unemployment and declining corporate sentiment should be enough for the Fed to start signaling a pivot, subsequently driving an asset recovery and pushing the S&P 500 to 4,200 by year-end 2023,” said Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, global head of Equity Macro Research at J.P. Morgan.
“We all know it’s been a tough year for investors. We’ve been through monetary tightening and persistent inflation across global economies,” said Ryan Murray, CFP, with Vanguard. “We’ve seen an unprecedented period of volatility in the bond market, where such fluctuations are highly unusual.”
Give the inherently unpredictability of markets, in the face of extreme volatility, shucking aside your long term plan will certainly cross the minds of investors, he noted. “But it’s important not to let emotions get the better of you or push you to make a reactive decision that could put your hard-earned savings at risk.
The strong demand for bonds this year has led to a windfall for BlackRock’s fixed-income exchange-traded funds. The fund giant has attracted more investor cash since U.S. rates started rising than all of its competitors combined. The inflows to fixed-income funds are being driven by regulatory changes and creative uses by wealth managers and other bond funds. Deborah Fuhr, the founder of the ETFGI consultancy, told FinancialTimes that “There have been significant changes about the way people think about fixed-income ETFs in the past year. We have seen large funds and asset managers put their portfolios in ETFs . . . rather than buying bonds and trying to manage them themselves.” Salim Ramji, BlackRock’s global head of ETF and index investments added, “We’re finding and expanding into all parts of the bond market in multiple different slices . . . Any part of the bond market that can be accessed through an ETF, we’re capturing that.” This includes ETFs such as IBTG, which only holds U.S. Treasury bonds maturing in 2026. Another fund is LQDB, which purely contains BBB-rated corporate bonds. These ETFs allow active fund managers to use them in different ways. For instance, some use a specific slice to tilt their portfolio either to longer or shorter-duration bonds, which depends on their view of the economy. Ramji also noted that BlackRock ETF users include nine of the ten largest active managers and eight of the ten largest U.S. insurance companies.
Finsum:As demand for fixed income increases, Blackrock has created ETFs that track a small slice of the bond market that active managers can use in a variety of ways.
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Several fund firms are looking to expand their fixed-income product lines to take advantage of the growing interest in the asset class. Fixed income had experienced a couple of turbulent years as the Federal Reserve's rate increases impacted yields and made equities more volatile. Plus, actively managed fixed-income mutual funds experienced one of their worst years on record in terms of outflows. However, the demand for fixed income this year appears to be gaining steam with several firms positioning themselves to take advantage of this trend. For instance, BlackRock has been rolling out new products to meet fixed-income demand. In January, the firm launched the BlackRock AAA CLO ETF, which has already taken in more than $30 million in assets as of Feb. 21st. Plus, last year, BlackRock launched a first-of-its-kind series of fixed-income ETFs that are designed to provide access to buy-write investment strategies on baskets of fixed-income securities. According to Steve Laipply, U.S. head of iShares Fixed Income at BlackRock, “The theme here is building out different tools for investors to navigate the environment so you continue to see this floating rate theme across the credit spectrum.” The firm is eyeing additional products in the future. Laipply also added that the industry will begin to get more creative when it comes to rolling out new products in the fixed-income space.
Finsum:After a couple of turbulent years, fixed-income funds are seeing increased demand, leading fund firms to take advantage of the trend by launching new products.
Last year was a tough year for bond investors, even pension funds. With the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond index down 14.6%, funds had to look elsewhere to bolster returns. According to a recent Pensions & Investments survey, a significant portion of defined benefit plans reported smaller bond portfolios as of September 30th, with many dropping more than 20%. For instance, the $430.4 billion California Public Employees' Retirement System (CalPERS) saw its U.S. fixed-income exposure drop 38.3% in the year ending on September 30th to $77.2 billion. In addition, the $288.6 billion California State Teachers' Retirement System saw its domestic bond exposure fall 12.9% in the 12 months ending on September 30th to $41.3 billion. With pension funds not wanting a repeat of 2022, many are turning to active bond strategies. For example, CalPERS is looking toward active management to turn things around. The pension fund's active and passive fixed-income exposure amounted to $77.4 billion and -$206 million as of September 30th, 2022, compared to $91.6 billion and $33.6 billion a year earlier. Arnold Phillips, managing investment director for global fixed income at the pension fund, noted that the current market could provide "opportunities to tactically deploy assets when managed through an active risk governance model," which could help turn performance around.
Finsum:With pension funds seeing their bond exposures plummet last year, many are turning to active fixed-income strategies this year in the hope of turning performance around.
Last year was a dismal year for fixed-income funds as bonds had their worst year on record. But this year, bonds are regaining steam partly due to an inverted yield curve. Fixed-income ETFs saw roughly $26 billion in inflows last month. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, told Mike Santoli on CNBC’s “ETF Edge” that “There’s now income within the fixed income ETFs that are available. We’ve seen higher-quality investment-grade corporate bond ETFs. We’ve seen high-yield fixed-income ETFs see inflows this year, as well as some of the safer products.” For example, the 10-year Treasury yield was trading at 3.759%, while the yield on the 2-year Treasury rose to 4.644% on Wednesday. In addition, the yield on the 6-month Treasury hit 5.022%, its highest level since July 2007. With yields at their highest in decades and lofty stock valuations, investors are looking for areas of strength in the market. In the same ETF Edge segment, James McNerny, portfolio manager at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, added “When we break down the flows that we’re seeing, we’re seeing flows into higher-quality, longer-duration products, and credit products on the front end of the curve. Those have been the lion’s share of the majority of the flows that we’ve seen.” Jerome Schneider, managing director at Pimco, told CNBC “That fixed income funds are gaining popularity because they offer investors attractive yields in an uncertain economic environment.”
Finsum:With yields at their highest in decades, bond ETFs are seeing strong inflows as investors seek income in an uncertain economic environment.