Bonds: Total Market
The rise in bond yields presents an opportunity for fixed income investors to find value according to Penter Bentley, the co-manager of the BNY Mellon Global Credit Fund. He notes that bond yields are close to their highest levels since the financial crisis and that conditions have been improving for investment-grade debt.
Due to these developments, he anticipates healthy returns for global and regional investment-grade credit. A key factor is borrowers have strong balance sheets with lower leverage than before the pandemic. In fact, Bentley believes that certain segments within fixed income could perform better than equities. He identifies ‘fallen angels’, short-duration high yield bonds, and emerging market corporate debt as having the most potential for outperformance this year.
Some uncertainties that could cloud this outlook including the election in November, the Fed’s ability to cut rates, and a tense geopolitical situation with Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East. Thus, investors should expect volatility to persist all year which means more opportunities for active managers to outperform.
Another place that fixed income investors can find value is with global credit. Historically, global credit has delivered better returns when markets are emerging from a downturn. In terms of global credit, Bentley sees opportunities in European credit markets and emerging market debt.
Finsum: Peter Bentley, the co-manager of the BNY Global Credit Fund, believes that investors can find value in fixed income. He sees the potential for strong returns in global credit, short-duration high yield debt, and ‘fallen angels’.
Direct indexing offers solutions for complex financial challenges but isn't suitable for every investor. Identifying which clients may benefit involves considering factors like tax-loss harvesting, ESG preferences, factor investing, and managing large positions or capital gains.
High-net-worth clients with significant capital gains and taxable equity holdings stand to gain the most from daily tax-loss harvesting, potentially doubling their harvested losses. For clients passionate about ESG criteria, direct indexing allows for precise customization, albeit with a slight fee premium and potential tracking error. Factor investing via direct indexing suits clients with specific customization needs beyond prepackaged ETFs, although advisors must weigh the added complexity against potential benefits.
Transitioning large existing positions into diversified portfolios using direct indexing offers tax efficiency, particularly for clients with concentrated holdings or restrictions on selling.
Finsum: Advisors need to gauge their clients benefits from direct indexing strategies, and the costs and concerns aren’t always a net positive.
As financial advisors contemplate retirement or transitioning away from their practice, preparing their book of business becomes increasingly important. This preparation, sometimes called "cleaning up the book," is a strategic move to enhance the ultimate sale price of the practice and ensure the quality of care their clients will receive after they move on.
A typical client-level profitability analysis often uncovers a familiar pattern: the 80/20 Rule, where 80% of profits come from 20% of clients. However, at the lower end of the profit scale, some advisors discover that some clients are actually costing them money after they account for all expenses and lost opportunities of their time.
Such revelations are particularly significant for advisors seeking to transfer their practice to another organization. Top-tier firms, which prioritize client interests, are reluctant to acquire a practice with unprofitable accounts and certainly not at a premium.
This insight is crucial for advisors as it also allows them time to adjust the service set they provide their least profitable clients, thus improving the profitability of their practice. By doing so, advisors not only secure the well-being of their clients for the future but also justify a fair valuation for the practice they've worked hard to build.
Finsum: By starting early, advisors looking to transition out of their practice can improve their chances of a profitable succession by cleaning up their book of business.
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JPMorgan believes that when it comes to fixed income, active outperforms passive. The bank believes that the benchmark, the Bloomberg US Aggregate Index (AGG), is fundamentally flawed due to an antiquated design. It doesn’t provide sufficient diversification as it only captures just over half of the bond market. This is in contrast to equities, where passive indexes reflect a much larger share of the total market.
This is because the benchmark was created in the 1980s where fixed income was dominated by Treasuries, agency mortgage-backed securities, and investment-grade corporate bonds. Now, there are many more types of fixed income securities that are not represented in the AGG. This also means more opportunities for active fixed income managers to outperform.
Another fundamental flaw of the AGG is that borrowers with the most debt have the most weight. This means that passive fixed income investors have the most exposure to the companies with the most debt. In contrast, active managers can weigh their portfolios by factors that are more meaningful and relevant to long-term outperformance.
JPMorgan’s active funds differ from the benchmark. Instead of short-duration Treasuries, it allocates more to short-duration, high-quality asset-backed securities as these have outperformed in 12 of the last 13 years. The bank also eschews securities that the benchmark is forced to own such as low-coupon MBS. In terms of corporate bonds, JPMorgan’s active funds prioritize quality. This is in contrast to AGG as 42% of its corporate bond holdings are rated BBB.
Finsum: JPMorgan makes the case for why investors should choose active fixed income. It identifies a couple of fundamental flaws in the construction of the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index.
The stronger than expected jobs report and inflation data have punctured the narrative that the Fed was going to imminently embark on a series of rate cuts. As a result, volatility has spiked in fixed income as the market has dialed back expectations for the number of hikes in 2024.
Investors can still take advantage of the attractive yields in bonds while managing volatility with the American Century Short Duration Strategic Income ETF (SDSI) and the Avantis Short-Term Fixed Income ETF (AVSF). Both offer higher yields than money markets while also being less exposed to interest rate risk which has led to steeper losses in longer-duration bonds YTD.
SDSI is an active fund with over 200 holdings and an expense ratio of 0.33%. Its current 30-day yield is 5.2%. The ETF’s primary focus is generating income by investing in short-duration debt in multiple segments such as notes, government securities, asset-backed securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
AVSF is even more diversified with more than 300 holdings and has a lower expense ratio at 0.15%. It has a 4.7% 30-day yield. AVSF invests in short-duration, investment-grade debt from US and non-US issuers. The fund’s aim is to invest in bonds that offer the highest expected returns by analyzing a bond’s income and capital appreciation potential.
Finsum: Recent developments have led to a material increase in fixed income volatility. Investors can shield themselves from this volatility while still taking advantage of attractive yields with short-duration bond ETFs.
Junk-bond ETFs showed a slight uptick, suggesting potential outperformance in 2024, especially under a soft-landing scenario for the US economy, according to Michael Arone of State Street Global Advisors.
While high-yield bonds may surprise investors with their resilience, concerns persist about the Fed's tightening and its impact on economic growth. Despite recent modest gains, ETFs tracking investment-grade bonds are still in the red for the year.
Investors remain cautious about high-yield spreads and potential widening, with some preferring rate risk over credit risk. Arone suggests a diversified approach, favoring short-term debt and bonds with intermediate durations.
Finsum: Duration management could be the key to weathering the storm in 2024.