Alternatives
- Rowe Price made an aggressive bet in 2020 by increasing exposure to equities in its target return funds, as equities were crashing due to the pandemic. At the time, the asset manager was criticized for this move; however, it’s paid off in spades, with the S&P 500 hitting new, all-time highs earlier this month. As a result of its success, T. Rowe Price now has the third-most assets in terms of target-date funds behind Fidelity and Vanguard.
Further, T. Rowe Price has remained up to 98% invested in its target-date funds, which is higher than its peers. According to an analysis from Cerulli, retirees hold up to 55% of their portfolio in equities at T. Rowe Price. Compare this to Fidelity and Vanguard, where equity allocations are 38% and 30%, respectively.
Despite its recent success, some continue to believe that T. Rowe Price’s target-date funds are taking on too much equity risk. According to Ron Surz, the president of Target Date Solutions, “80% of assets should be risk-free at retirement. Virtually all target date funds are way riskier than the theory they follow." However, some believe that higher allocations to equities are necessary given that lifespans are increasing, which increases the risk that retirees could outlive their savings.
Finsum: T. Rowe Price is pursuing a more aggressive strategy than its peers when it comes to equity allocations in its target-date funds. So far, it’s worked well, but there are some skeptics.
Buffered ETFs are seeing explosive growth. The category had less than $200 million in assets and now has $36.7 billion. The major appeal is that they allow investors to remain fully invested while offering downside protection.
However, they do tend to have higher costs and may not be appropriate for many investors. Buffered ETFs follow a benchmark while also using stock options to limit downside risk and capping gains on the upside.
These products are modeled after structured notes, which have proven to be popular among high net worth and institutional investors. Like structured notes, buffered ETFs follow some sort of lifecycle, which means that advisors and investors have to consider market conditions when making a decision. This means they are not appropriate for rebalancing or dollar cost averaging strategies. An important consideration is the start date of the buffer ETF and the performance of the underlying index since the start date, as this could affect the value and desirability of the buffer.
According to Jeff Schwartz, president at the investment analytics firm Markov Processes International, “There is a lot to understand with buffer ETFs, and the history of structured products shows that both advisors and investors often do not fully understand the nuance of these vehicles."
Finsum: Buffered ETFs are experiencing a surge in growth. The upside is that they allow investors to remain fully invested while capping the downside. However, there are also some downsides to consider.
KKR recently shared its growth strategy for alternative investments geared towards wealthy individual investors. Initially, it plans to offer products focused on private credit, private equity, infrastructure, and real estate and aims to distribute them through financial advisors. The firm has noted strong interest from wealth managers and registered investment advisors. It believes that its 48 years of experience in the space and strong legacy will differentiate KKR from its competitors.
According to Eric Mogelof, KKR’s head of Global Client Solutions, “Private wealth is a transformational opportunity for KKR. Private wealth is large, it’s growing quickly, and importantly, allocations to alternatives in this space are only going in one direction, and that is up.” KKR sees alternatives accounting for 6% of the private wealth market by 2027, a sharp increase from its 2% share in 2022.
This series of products will offer qualified investors the same type of access as institutional clients without any additional fees. KKR also believes that these products will be more liquid than competing alternatives. The firm also sees momentum to offer even more alternative product types in the near future. This is in response to their conversations with advisors, banks, wirehouses, and brokers, who have found that allocations to alternatives are increasing.
Finsum: KKR sees a big opportunity in alternative investments and is launching a suite of products. It hopes to target wealthy investors through financial advisors.
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Over the last decade, private credit has boomed, growing from $435 billion to $1.7 trillion. One consequence of this has been a growing marketplace for private credit secondaries. Currently, the private credit secondary market is estimated to be worth $30 billion, but it’s forecast to exceed $50 billion by 2027.
The secondary market is where private credit investors can sell their stake early. It’s natural that as allocations to private credit have increased, there is now a need for liquidity, which is provided through the secondary market. Most of it is driven by investors looking to rebalance their holdings. Another benefit is that it can potentially provide diversification to private credit investors. Some managers are now fundraising for funds dedicated to the private credit secondary market, such as Apollo Global Management and Pantheon.
There is also an analogue between the private equity secondary market and the private credit secondary market. Although the private equity secondary market is more mature and larger at $100 billion, with many more established funds in the space. According to Craig Bergstrom, managing partner and CIO of Corbin Capital Partners, “I don't think private credit secondaries will ever get to be as big as private equity secondaries. And I don't think they'll even get to be as large as private credit is in proportion to private equity because the duration is shorter.”
Finsum: A consequence of the boom in private credit is a growing and active market for secondaries. It’s evolving similarly to the secondary market in private equity and is forecast to exceed $50 billion by 2027.
The ETF market continues to grow and mature by providing new funds for investors to reach their financial goals. BMO Global Asset Management sees more growth in the coming year, driven by more targeted funds that appeal to more sophisticated investors.
It sees the ETF market continuing to evolve and innovate in order to meet the growing demand for more sophisticated products in an ETF wrapper. It sees ETFs becoming the primary way for investors to get exposure to themes, trends, and investment opportunities. Further, there is intense competition among issuers to continue bringing new products onto the market, especially given first-mover advantages.
BMO is particularly bullish on structured outcome ETFs, which were created to help investors manage risk. It believes that investors in equity funds and short-term bond funds are exposed to volatility given the outperformance of megacap, technology stocks over the past year and uncertainty around the Fed’s rate cuts.
Structured outcome ETFs are one way that clients can remain invested while capping downside risk. Among these, buffer ETFs, which use options that protect against downside risk and cap upside potential, are becoming increasingly popular among advisors and investors. Notably, this type of protection was at one time only available to high net worth investors.
Finsum: BMO Asset Management conducted an overview of the ETF industry. It notes the constant innovation in the space, with the latest growth area being structured outcome ETFs, which are particularly useful in terms of reducing portfolio risk.
Investors are selling their private equity holdings at a discount on secondary markets in order to reduce exposure to the asset class. Last year, there was $112 billion in secondary market transactions, the second-highest since 2017. According to Jefferies, 99% of private equity transactions were made at or below net asset value last year. This is an increase from 95% and 73% in 2022 and 2021, respectively.
It’s a result of the depressed atmosphere for M&A and IPOs, which have been the typical path for private equity exits. However, these outlets have been offline for most of the past couple of years due to the Fed hiking rates to combat inflation.
Many of the sellers have been pension funds that are required to make regular payments to beneficiaries. Prior to this cycle, private equity was lauded for its steady returns and low volatility, leading pension funds to increase allocations from 8% in 2019 to 11% last year.
Private equity’s appeal has also dimmed, given that higher rates can be attained with fixed income and better liquidity. In contrast, private equity thrived when rates were low, as it led to robust M&A and IPO activity in addition to more generous multiples.
One silver lining is that as the Fed nears a pivot in its policy, there has been some narrowing of discounts. According to Jefferies, the average discount from net asset value has dropped from 13% to 9%.
Finsum: Many investors in private equity are exiting positions at a discount due to liquidity concerns. Now, some institutional investors are rethinking their decision to increase allocations.