(New York)

Markets took a nosedive yesterday. Last week was bad, but yesterday’s falls were so steep they amounted to about as much as all of last week. All fears over rates and the trade war came to a head when Trump labeled China a currency manipulator. The S&P 500 fell about 3%, meaning the total decline in the index since last week is around 6%. The Dow lost 760 points. The losses amounted to the worst single day drop since early 2018.

FINSUM: The “currency manipulator” claim is largely symbolic. While it certainly won’t help a deal get done, it is hard to see it having a tangible outcome. This seems like a lot of pent-up market anxiety manifesting itself.

(New York)

Buyback stocks have developed a poor reputation recently. Stock buybacks are seen as financially irresponsible and a way for executives to manipulate earnings and share prices. While that may be true to a degree, they also happen to be a great way for companies to return money to shareholders. Additionally, and what is not well understood, is that buyback stocks have a great track record historically. Since 1995, the one hundred S&P 500 stocks with the highest level of buybacks have significantly outperformed the index, earning a 13% return versus the index’s 10%. The same is true for the Russell 3000, so it is not just a case of buybacks working for large caps.

FINSUM: Yes, buybacks may be at their highest total levels historically, but they are flat as a percentage of earnings, so buying hasn’t been any less conservative than in the past. The other good thing is that buyback stocks are usually cheaper than average.

(Washington)

Trump’s tariffs are having a major impact on the US’ trading relationships. The data has been showing such, but now there is a very significant data point: China is no longer the US’ largest trading partner. Mexico has now assumed that position. The decline in trade with China comes alongside an escalating trade war that has seen tariff hikes and restrictions on both sides.

FINSUM: We are now officially of the position that this trade war with China will not be resolved any time soon, so this decline in trading seems to be the end of an era.

(New York)

The market is in the worst shape it has been for some time, maybe the worst condition of the year. The S&P 500 fell over 3% last week on the combined news of a less dovish Fed and a huge tariff increase on China. Where things go from here is very uncertain, but JP Morgan is arguing that you should buy the dip. The bank’s strategists summarize their view this way, saying “Our core view remains that one should use the prospective weakness as an opportunity to add further, similar to the May experience. We continue to believe that global equities will advance further before the next U.S. recession strikes. We think that the growth-policy trade-off is far better now than it was in 2018”.

FINSUM: The market, economy, and politics are at quite a confusing point right now. Either things will gel to send prices higher, or it will all come crashing down like it did last year. Anyone’s guess.

(Houston)

The Chinese Yuan reached a landmark and worrying level today. It fell to below 7 versus the Dollar, marking its weakest point in 11 years. The weakening currency could help Beijing offset economic weakness from tariffs. “We will see a new wave of depreciation among Asian currencies in the foreseeable future, and there could be further risk-off movements in the global markets. It looks like a tsunami is coming”, said an economist at Commerzbank. This will have major implications for commodities as China is the world’s biggest consumer, and now that the currency is weaker, it will be harder to buy, meaning prices must come down.

FINSUM: Dollar prices for commodities (almost all are priced in Dollars) will need to come down commensurately with the Yuan in order for the Chinese to maintain their purchasing power.