Displaying items by tag: real estate

Real estate investment trusts, known as REITs, are renowned for their attractive dividend yields, as they are legally obligated to distribute 90% of their post-tax earnings to shareholders. However, REITs are highly sensitive to various market factors such as interest rates, inflation, leverage, and regulatory changes, posing liquidity concerns for investors.

While dividend yield is crucial, conservative investors also consider factors like analyst ratings and liquidity when evaluating REITs. The highest-yielding REITs, according to Rick Orford, based on specific criteria, including annual dividend percentage, trading volume, number of analysts, and current analyst ratings are Vici Properties, showcasing notable revenue growth and offering a promising dividend yield of 5.71%. Starwood Property Trust, recognized as the largest commercial mortgage REIT in the US, presents a forward yield of 9.81%, notwithstanding mixed financial performance in 2023. Redwood Trust emerges as a standout contender with the highest forward yield of 11.24% and an optimistic outlook for future earnings growth, bolstered by its diversified investment portfolio.

Finsum: If interest rates have peaked REITs are poised to deliver huge returns in 2024 and 2025.

KKR recently shared its growth strategy for alternative investments geared towards wealthy individual investors. Initially, it plans to offer products focused on private credit, private equity, infrastructure, and real estate and aims to distribute them through financial advisors. The firm has noted strong interest from wealth managers and registered investment advisors. It believes that its 48 years of experience in the space and strong legacy will differentiate KKR from its competitors.

According to Eric Mogelof, KKR’s head of Global Client Solutions, “Private wealth is a transformational opportunity for KKR. Private wealth is large, it’s growing quickly, and importantly, allocations to alternatives in this space are only going in one direction, and that is up.” KKR sees alternatives accounting for 6% of the private wealth market by 2027, a sharp increase from its 2% share in 2022. 

This series of products will offer qualified investors the same type of access as institutional clients without any additional fees. KKR also believes that these products will be more liquid than competing alternatives. The firm also sees momentum to offer even more alternative product types in the near future. This is in response to their conversations with advisors, banks, wirehouses, and brokers, who have found that allocations to alternatives are increasing. 

Finsum: KKR sees a big opportunity in alternative investments and is launching a suite of products. It hopes to target wealthy investors through financial advisors. 

Entering the year, there was optimism around real estate stocks given consensus expectations of rate cuts due to inflation falling to the Fed’s desired level and a weakening economy. However, the economy has defied skeptics and remains resilient, while inflation is plateauing at higher levels. As a result, the Fed will be less dovish than expected, and the market has tapered back expectations for rate cuts to between 1 and 2 by year-end. 

Another consequence of the data is that mortgage rates are trending back to last year’s highs, with the 30Y at 6.9%. The real estate sector sank lower following last week’s inflation report, led by self-storage companies, office REITs, and homebuilders on the downside. 

Over the past month and YTD, the Real Estate Select SPDR Fund (XLRE) is down 4.6% and 7.8%, respectively. The current environment of rates at a 23-year high is clearly a major headwind. And there are no indications that the status quo will meaningfully change until there is improvement in terms of inflation or more damage to the economy. The impact is evident in terms of Fed futures. At the start of March, odds indicated more than a 50% chance that there would be four or more rate cuts by the end of the year. Now, these odds have plummeted to 5%. 

Finsum: Real estate stocks have sunk lower in the last month, along with the odds of aggressive rate cuts by the Fed. As long as ‘higher for longer’ persists, there will be considerable stress for the weakest segments of the real estate market.

Meredith Whitney, who previously forecasted the financial crisis in the mid-2000s, sees downside for the housing market, driven by changes in behavior among younger men. She sees the beginning of a multiyear decline in housing prices as the lower levels of household formation among men negatively impact demand. 

On the supply side, she sees more homes for sale due to the aging demographics of homeowners. Whitney’s perspective deviates from the consensus, which sees home prices as remaining elevated due to a lack of supply, coupled with a bulge in demand as Millennials enter their peak consumption years over the next decade. This year, most Wall Street banks are forecasting a mid-single digits increase in home prices. 

Another factor impacting housing supply is that the vast majority of mortgages were made at much lower rates. While many asset prices have declined due to the impact of high rates, home prices are an exception. Whitney contends that “normally you would think as rates go up, home prices would go down, and that hasn’t happened over the last two years. I think home prices will normalize because as more inventory and supply come on the market, you’ll see a true clearing price that is lower than it is today. So, I would say 20% lower than it is today.” 

Finsum: The consensus view is that home prices will continue rising due to low supply and demographic-driven demand. Meredith Whitney, well-regarded for predicting the financial crisis, is bearish on the asset class.

In 2023, the global financial markets experienced an unprecedented surge known as the "everything" rally, marked by significant gains in various asset classes. Factors driving this unexpected shift included lower inflation, the resilience of the U.S. economy, and the anticipation of looser monetary policies and declining interest rates in the near future.

Looking forward, private markets are poised to offer competitive returns and diversification advantages compared to public markets, with private credit emerging as a particularly promising strategy amidst prevailing interest rate challenges. Investors are urged to carefully evaluate the risks associated with private markets and consider their potential impact on portfolio performance.

According to JPMorgan, exploring alternative strategies for 2024, such as private equity, real estate, infrastructure, and secondary markets, presents opportunities for growth and portfolio enhancement, contingent upon thorough due diligence and selective fund allocation.

Finsum: As the Fed takes its foot off the gas pedal alts might in the biggest position to rally in 2024