Displaying items by tag: inflation

Charles Schwab is forecasting positive returns for fixed income as the economy slows and inflation continues to fall. However, it expects volatility to linger given uncertainty about the Fed’s policy moves. 

Schwab notes that yields have been unusually volatile as the 10-year yield has ranged between 3.5% and 5% over the past 12 months. Yet, it believes that short and long-term yields have peaked for the cycle. 

It sees downward pressure for inflation given that supply issues have abated, while it sees the impact of tighter monetary policy continuing to materialize, also adding to downward pressure on inflation. Despite this bullish forecast for bonds, it doesn’t see a return to the pre-Covid era of low rates and quantitative easing (QE). 

In terms of economic growth, Schwab notes some risks as high real rates are impacting the economy as they create more incentives for consumers to save rather than spend. Two more  headwinds are tighter lending standards at banks and the Fed continuing to unwind its balance sheet. Another factor contributing to volatility is that the Fed could elect to keep rates higher as it wouldn’t want to squander gains made in the fight against inflation.

Finsum: Charles Schwab sees positive returns for fixed income in 2024 due to slower economic growth and falling inflation. However, it expects volatility to continue given uncertainty over the Fed.

Since the yield on the 10-year inched above 5% in October, we have seen a relentless rally in Treasuries. According to Bank of America, this rally is due to the increasing likelihood of an upcoming Fed rate cut and is just getting started. It eventually forecasts the 10-year yield falling another 200 basis points based on historical precedent of dramatic declines in yield during the interim period between the Fed’s final rate hike and first rate cut. 

There have been five hiking cycles since 1988. Each saw a major rally in Treasuries once the hikes were complete. The largest decline was 163 basis points, while the average decline was 107 basis points. The drop in yields tended to abate once the Fed began cutting rates. This cycle Bank of America sees the 10-year yield dropping to 2.25% by May 2024 which is when the first hikes are expected to take place. 

Such a decline in Treasury yields would have major implications for other asset classes as well. The researchers also warned that this prediction could be impacted by ‘lingering inflationary pressures. Interestingly, the bank’s strategists have a different outlook as they expect the 10-year period to end next year at 4.25%, which indicates minor change from current levels. 

Finsum: Bank of America shared historical research which shows that the 10-year yield tends to experience weakness during the interim between the Fed’s final hike and its first rate cut. 

Commercial real estate (CRE) has been in the crosshairs due to a combination of cyclical and secular factors. However, there is a wide dispersion in the sector with some areas facing perilous times like offices and retail, while others continue to experience strong fundamentals like industrial, multi-family, and tech infrastructure.

The biggest cyclical threat is the Fed’s interest rate hikes which have increased the cost of capital, especially with so many borrowers looking to refinance in the coming months and years. Adding to this is that many regional banks are dealing with impaired balance sheets due to falling bond prices and have reduced lending activity to minimize risk. This means that capital is more expensive and harder to access. Another concern is if the economy falls into a recession this could lead to a spike in defaults, downward pressure on rents, and an increase in vacancies. 

Operators in the space must adapt to these new realities rather than wish for a return to the previous era, when low rates and steady economic growth fueled a long bull market. Some recommendations for owners and investors in the space are to upgrade properties, find new capital sources, spend on technology for greater efficiencies, invest in sustainability, and adjust accommodations for hybrid work arrangements. 

Finsum: Commercial real estate (CRE) has faced major struggles over the past couple of years. Yet, there is a wide dispersion in space with some areas continuing to have strong fundamentals while others are in a much more vulnerable position.

The last FOMC meeting saw the Fed put a pause on hikes. Recent economic data, specifically softer inflation prints, is also supporting the notion that the Fed’s next move will be to cut rather than hike. Adding fuel to the rally was comments from Fed governor Christopher Waller that Fed policy was ‘well-positioned’ to bring inflation back down to its desired level. Waller’s concession is noteworthy given that he has been among the most hawkish FOMC members.

It’s already resulted in longer-term yields dropping, as the 10-year yield has declined from 5% in mid-October to 4.3%. As a result, equities have surged higher, and bonds posted their best monthly performance in nearly 40 years. The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index was up nearly 5% in November. This performance is likely to attract inflows especially as bonds will further strengthen if the economy does fall into a recession. 

With these gains, the asset class is now slightly positive on a YTD basis. Many investors may also be eager to lock in these rates especially as the ‘higher for longer’ narrative around interest rates seems to be passing. There’s also increasing chatter of a rate cut as soon as spring of next year, while the odds of another hike have diminished. 

Finsum: Bonds enjoyed a strong rally in November. Some of the major factors behind this strength were dovish comments from FOMC members, soft inflation data, and the Fed nearing the end of its hiking cycle.

Clarion Partners, a leading global real estate investment manager, shared its thoughts on the US economy and outlook for real estate in 2024. It notes that the economy has stayed resilient despite headwinds from inflation, higher interest rates, and geopolitical risks. 

The expansion has been sustained by a robust jobs market, steady consumer spending, and fiscal deficits. There could be some relief with inflation moderating which could lead the Fed to pivot its policy in 2024 and provide relief to rate-sensitive parts of the economy like real estate.

Real estate activity has slowed due to higher interest rates, while sellers have been unwilling to lower prices. In some segments, there is concern about a wave of maturities which will have to be refinanced at higher rates in a more restrictive environment. 

The firm is generally optimistic about commercial real estate except for office, mall, and select retail. Other than these areas, vacancy rates remain low, and rents remain elevated. There has also been a drop in new construction which is also supportive of rents continuing to grow in the coming years. It also believes that private real estate is well-positioned to take advantage of dislocations created by the current market environment. 

Finsum: Clarion Partners, a real estate invesment manager, believes that macro conditions for real estate will improve in 2024 due to a more dovish Fed while underlying fundamentals remain solid.