FINSUM
According to Lindsay Rosner, the managing director of multi-sector fixed income investments at Goldman Sachs, fixed income is presenting investors with an attractive opportunity to lock in high yields without compromising on quality. There are some challenges given divergences in central bank policy around the world and increasing uncertainty about the timing and direction of the Fed’s next move. Overall, the firm believes that the status quo of ‘higher for longer’ is likely to prevail.
A major factor is inflation, and the economy proving to be more resilient than expected. As a result, the market is now expecting two quarter-point rate cuts before the end of the year, compared to expectations of 150 basis points in cuts entering the year. The next Fed decision is on July 29. Prior to that meeting, there will be considerable amounts of inflation and labor market data, which could impact its thinking, although the current expectation is for it to hold rates steady.
With rates at these levels, there is increased risk that consumer spending is affected or that a higher cost of capital begins to impact corporate profitability and hiring. This risk increases the attractiveness of fixed income, especially as many investors are looking to rebalance given strong equity performance. Rosner sees opportunity in higher-quality areas such as investment-grade corporate bonds and structured products with AAA or AA ratings, especially given an impressive carry differential over Treasuries.
Finsum: Goldman Sachs sees opportunity in higher-quality segments of the fixed-income market. It believes investors should lock in yields at these levels, given the risk that high rates will eventually sour the economic outlook.
Goldman Sachs has raised $21 billion for private credit investments, its largest fund yet in this asset class.
Fresh capital, borrowed funds, co-investments, and SMAs are all a part of the how the firm has secured its newest private lending channel. This initiative is crucial for Goldman to demonstrate its ability to attract substantial external funds, focusing on steady fees instead of occasional large revenues.
High-net-worth individuals and institutional investors alike are increasing their allocations to alternatives, viewing private credit as a valuable investment. With plans to double its private credit assets to $300 billion in five years, Goldman is leveraging its extensive experience while other banks form partnerships to enter this market.
Finsum: Alternatives are a good way to hedge against the mainstream macro volatility problems looming on traditional portfolios
Summer tends to be slower on Broadway, even more so this year with some theaters being renovated and a lighter schedule for Shakespeare in the Park. However, there are some intriguing new shows that will be opening this summer.
The most highly anticipated is “Oh, Mary!” which is scheduled to open in late June at the Lyceum Theater. The play stars Cole Escola as an ahistorical, comedic Mary Todd Lincoln, who is resentful of her husband for thwarting her stage ambitions even during the Civil War. Conrad Ricamora plays Abe Lincoln. The play was highly lauded during its opening run for its humor and uniqueness. Now, it’s moving into a bigger theater with a larger production budget.
Maggie Siff of Billions and Sons of Anarchy stars in “Breaking the Story,” which is set to open on the Second Stage on June 4. Siff stars as a former war correspondent who is struggling to make the transition back to civilian life. During its preview run, the play received acclaim for its acting performances and its portrayal of internal conflict.
On a lighter note, Cats is returning to Broadway, albeit with a twist. “Cats: The Jellicle Ball” will open at the Perelman Theater on June 13 and is brought by directors Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch. The musical is set within the world of New York ballroom dancing and features club music and runway choreography. It will be interesting to see if this can recapture the magic of the original or come off as a tired sequel.
Finsum: This year’s summer season is especially slow on Broadway. However, there are a couple of interesting shows opening in the coming months, including “Oh! Mary” and “Breaking the Story”.
Traditionally reserved for the wealthy, direct indexing has become more widely accessible thanks to technological advancements. This investment strategy involves owning the individual stocks in an index such as the S&P 500, which allows investors to sell off underperforming stocks to generate tax losses—a technique known as tax-loss harvesting.
According to Frec, a direct-indexing startup, a simulated S&P 500-based portfolio could boost after-tax annual returns by more than 2% over a decade, compared to an ETF, assuming a tax rate of 42.3% and excluding advisory fees.
Firms like Charles Schwab, Vanguard, and Fidelity now offer direct-indexing services with various account minimums and fee structures, lowering the entry barrier for average investors. With the market for direct indexing expected to reach $825 billion in assets by 2026, this approach is set to become increasingly popular among a broader range of investors.
Finsum: Computing power has drastically driven down the costs of Direct Indexing allowing more investors to gain its tax alpha.
As one of the leading asset managers, BlackRock, shook the market his week when, through regulatory filings, it disclosed that its income funds are invested in its own Bitcoin ETFs. The two important funds were the Strategic Income Opportunities Fund (BSIIX) and Strategic Global Bond Fund (MAWIX), which acquired $3.56 million and $485,000 worth of iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) respectively.
These investments are a minor part of the $37.4 billion and $776.4 million portfolios of BSIIX and MAWIX, respectively. As of May 24, the iShares Bitcoin Trust held about $19.61 billion in Bitcoin, which trails the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).
Globally, spot Bitcoin ETFs hold over 1 million Bitcoin, valued at more than $68 billion, which is nearly 5.10% of Bitcoin's circulating supply of over 19.7 million BTC. Since their launch in January, over 600 investment firms, including major institutions like Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and Wells Fargo, have invested in spot Bitcoin ETFs, with Millennium Management being the largest accumulator at $1.9 billion.
Finsum: While this fund cannibalism isn’t new, it’s definitely something to be aware of when looking at income funds.
Research shows that the average advisor spends about 11 hours per week on administrative duties. Ideally, this time could be better spent on activities that are more directly connected to the firm’s success. AI can offer some relief in terms of reducing time spent on repetitive tasks. It can also help generate better outcomes by increasing efficiency, analysis capabilities, and decision-making.
Among the many use cases, scheduling and transcription are two that can be immediately applied. For scheduling, apps like Trevor or Clockwise can organize tasks, create to-do lists and daily plans, sync calendars across apps, and maximize time for deep work and productivity. These apps also become more effective over time as they adapt, learn patterns, and can help prioritize tasks.
Another powerful use for AI is transcription. Apps like OtterAI record, transcribe, and summarize meetings and can be integrated with Zoom, Microsoft Teams, or Google Meet. Future versions of these apps could analyze communications with clients or prospects to understand their emotions and provide more personalized service and communications.
While AI can make advisors more effective, it’s necessary to understand the limitations, especially given the nature of financial services and the importance of safeguarding client information.
Finsum: Advisors spend 11 hours per week on administrative tasks. AI apps can offer relief, especially in terms of scheduling, transcription, and organization.
A major trend in wealth management is the rise of customized products and services. Direct indexing is essentially a personalized equity or bond index.
In terms of benefits, direct indexing gives more control over the timing of realizing capital gains for maximum tax-efficiency. Unlike ETFs or mutual funds, tax losses can be harvested and then used to offset capital gains with direct indexing. According to research, this can boost after-tax returns between 1% and 2%.
It also allows clients to invest in a way that aligns with their values and/or unique financial situation. This could mean not including stocks from a particular industry, such as tobacco or firearms. It also allows for better risk management, as exposure to certain stocks or sectors can be more effectively managed.
In terms of drawbacks, a major chunk of direct indexing’s benefits are due to tax savings. However, this is less relevant in a retirement account. Another complication is that short-term losses cannot offset long-term gains.
Another is the ‘wash sale rule’ which means that investors cannot sell and then repurchase the same security within 30 days. One workaround is to buy securities with similar factor scores to remain consistent with the underlying benchmark.
Finally, direct indexing has become available to a wider group of investors in recent years due to technology and low-cost trading. However, it’s still most impactful for investors in a higher tax bracket, long-term capital gains, and large, concentrated positions.
Finsum: Direct indexing is increasingly popular, especially as it’s becoming available to more investors. However, the strategy is most applicable for investors in a higher tax bracket, large concentrated positions, and long-term capital gains.
In the past two years, retirement investors have funneled over $20 billion into US exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that limit both gains and losses, challenging traditional insurance products. These "buffered" ETFs capitalize on derivatives to cushion the effects of extreme market swings and have grown popular since their 2018 debut, especially after the market turbulence of 2020 and 2022.
The draw of buffered ETFs lies in their downside protection, which has become increasingly attractive to investors seeking to safeguard their retirement savings. Financial advisers in the US have embraced these ETFs, driving $10 billion in net inflows in both 2022 and 2023, while taking market share from the $3.3 trillion annuities market and costly structured notes.
This has grown not only the size but the scope of the market with 200+ defined outcome ETFs in the US, totally a staggering $37bn. In turn new competitors like BlackRock and AllianceBernstein are joining the competition to try and capitalize on the gains from First Trust and Allianz.
Finsum: The uniqueness of buffer ETFs really is in how they integrate derivatives to drive performance and outcomes and can present nearly all in one solutions.
Financial advisors frequently turn to bonds when managing retirement investment risk, as they are traditionally viewed as a reliable hedge against stock market fluctuations. However, recent research suggests caution, with a Bloomberg report revealing that the bond market has experienced significant volatility in recent years, and the traditional hedging with fixed income might be inadequate.
To circumvent losses from bond volatility, fixed index annuities (FIAs) can serve as an effective alternative. FIAs generally carry lower risks compared to bonds but they can do so at a reduced price with a much higher potential upside. Unlike bonds, FIAs can guarantee a lifetime income, providing a unique form of security for retirement planning.
Interest earned from FIAs is based on an external market index, such as the S&P 500, allowing investors to benefit from market gains without the risk of market volatility. This makes FIAs an appealing option for achieving a balanced and secure retirement portfolio.
Finsum: This really comes down to investor preferences, but stock-bond correlation is increasing which should give investors reasons to consider annuities.
Pickleball is the fastest-growing sport in America. Last year, the number of Americans playing increased by 53%, for a total of 13.6 million, making it the fifth-most popular sport in terms of participation. This makes it roughly equivalent to those who played baseball (16.7 million), soccer (14.1 million), and skied (13.1 million).
Pickleball still trails tennis (23.8 million) and basketball (29.7 million) by wider margins. However, it’s increasingly difficult to see the sport as simply a fad, especially with major investments in the space in terms of building public courts at the local level, indoor facilities, two professional leagues, expansion to international markets, etc.
Even more impressive than the 53% increase in the number of players is the 111% growth in ‘core players’, defined as those who play more than eight times a year. It’s translated into the number of public pickleball courts in the US increasing by 650% over the last 7 years.
Private operators are also seeing an opportunity. CityPickle was founded in 2022 and currently has multiple locations in New York City, including 14 courts in Central Park’s Wollman Rink. There are also franchises in other parts of the country, including Ace Pickleball with 80 franchises awarded, Pickleball Kingdom with 140 awarded, and Chicken N Pickle with 16 locations.
Gyms and golf clubs, such as Life Time Fitness and Invited Clubs, are also investing as if pickleball is more than a fad. Life Time now has nearly 700 courts across 170 locations and has invested $60 million into building courts. The gym saw 51% growth in pickleball players at its clubs and forecasts having 1,000 courts in the near future. Invited Clubs is the largest operator of private golf clubs and has spent between $10 and $12 million in the last 3 years and has nearly 500 courts.
Finsum: Pickleball was the fifth-most-played sport in the US last year. It’s surprising since most people had never heard of the sport until a couple of years ago. Yet, serious sums of capital are flowing to it, indicating that it’s more than a fad.