(New York)

Gun stocks may be in for a deep fall. For many years gunmakers have been protected by a legal precedent which keeps them from being held liable in cases of gun violence. However, a novel new argument in a court case may bring that crashing down. Families of the victims in the Sandy Hook shooting in 2012 have brought a case against Remington which argues that the gunmaker should be held liable because it made the choice to distribute its rifles to a dealer who illegally sold weapons. Essentially, the case holds Remington liable for its distribution channels.

FINSUM: If this argument holds it would defeat the 2005 precedent that has protected gunmakers and open the door to unknown levels of legal action.

(New York)

Investors beware of yields. That is the message from one of Wall Street’s most respected names in fixed income. In particular, Jeffrey Gundlach is warning that if ten-year Treasury yields get to over 3% then it will spell doom for stocks. Yields are currently at 2.84%, down from a peak on February 21st of 2.95%. “My idea that the S&P would go down on the year would become an extraordinarily strong conviction as the 10-year starts to make an accelerated move above 3 percent”, says Gundlach.

FINSUM: So the argument here seems to be based on the idea that stocks would become less attractive as investors could earn more from bonds given rising yields. That makes some sense given the increasing size of the retirement population.

(New York)

In a refreshing article given the relative doom and gloom over the last month, Barron’s has published a piece arguing that it is the bears, not the bulls, that need to be afraid of the equity market right now. The view is based on technical analysis. Many might be interested to learn that rather than the technical indicators showing a bull market at or near its peak, signs are suggesting a move upward may be in store. The piece is also quick to point out that despite the shallow correction a month ago, the bull trend for the market has continued unabated.

FINSUM: We don’t put a great deal of stock in technical analysis and only view it as useful as a companion to fundamental analysis. Nonetheless, it is good to stay abreast of this information.

(Washington)

In what seems a status quo that has been in place for eons, the way credit is measured in the mortgage market appears poised to change. For many years, Fair Isaac Corp’s FICO score has been by far the dominant credit score used when determining mortgage issuance. Now Congress is trying to shake things up with a bank deregulation bill that would require Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to consider credit scores beyond FICO. If the move happens, it is expected that more mortgages would be approved.

FINSUM: This would be a huge shakeup with big implications for the market. If more mortgages get approved, it seems like credit-worthiness would fall in aggregate, with a commensurate rise in rates.

(Washington)

Wall Street is getting nervous about the changes occurring in the White House. Over the last week, President Trump has lost or fired both Gary Cohn and Rex Tillerson, former Goldman Sachs COO and former Exxon CEO, respectively. Both Cohn and Tllerson were considered the business-friendly part of Trump’s White House who would look after corporate and investor interests. With them gone, investors are betting the odds of a trade war are getting more likely. One equity strategist summarized the situation, saying “We’ve gone a long time with a zero percent chance of a trade war, it’s now higher than that -- probably significantly higher than that … The internationalists have lost and the nationalists have won”.

FINSUM: We agree that a trade war is getting more likely. If it occurs, we think it will be poor for equities markets, but not necessarily terrible for the economy.

(Washington)

The business-friendly part of the White House appears to have taken a hit over the last week. First it was Goldman Sachs alumni Gary Cohn to leave, and now former Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson has been fired as Secretary of State. In his place will be CIA Director Mike Pompeo. Pompeo is expected to walk a much closer line to Trump’s agenda. Speaking about Tillerson, President Trump commented “We were not really thinking the same; with Mike Pompeo, we have a very similar thought process . . . I think Rex will be much happier now”.

FINSUM: We are concerned that a former CIA director might not have the diplomatic skill to smooth out some of the rough edges of foreign policy. That said, greater harmony between the White House and Secretary of State will be a good thing.

(New York)

Allianz, the global financial firm, says that Bitcoin is worthless and that the bubble is about to burst. While the firm may be better known in its native Europe, Allianz is a major player speaking out against the cryptocurrency. “In our view, its intrinsic value must be zero … A bitcoin is a claim on nobody – in contrast to, for instance, sovereign bonds, equities or paper money – and it does not generate any income stream”, says Allianz, Europe’s largest insurer.

FINSUM: We thought the bitcoin bubble had already burst! Allianz really seems to think it will go to zero. We do not, as we believe it will slowly develop into a digital value store as the regulatory regime surrounding it gets harmonized.

(New York)

Market volatility is back in a big way. This has made investors nervous and has re-ignited interest in traditional safe havens such as bonds and gold. However, Goldman Sachs has just note put out a note saying those asset classes have evaporated as safe havens. “No safe havens -- and no assets or equity sectors -- have had a positive beta to the VIX recently, and few have had a positive beta to 10-year yields, leading to diversification desperation”, say Goldman Sachs strategists. Rates, which look to be heading higher, have been a major culprit in the decline of safe havens, as have changing strategies, such as at the Bank of Japan.

FINSUM: This is one of the main reasons the market might end up falling further than it otherwise would have. Since there is no easy place to put cash, the overall panic level may be higher in a situation of serious volatility.

(Washington)

It would be easy to dismiss the current uproar over the Stormy Daniels case against Donald Trump as another in a long series of minor scandals surrounding the White House. However, this one might be very different. The reason why is that the legal case surrounding the situation may force Trump to testify under oath, which could prove a very dicey situation. Daniels, whose real name is Stephanie Clifford, is now offering to pay back the $130,000 she received in exchange for releasing her from her obligation of silence.

FINSUM: It will be very interesting to see where this case leads, as there could be wide-ranging implications.

(Washington)

President Trump has just sent a strong message to overseas investors: that US tech is not for sale. The president rejected Broadcom’s hostile takeover of Qualcomm. Although Broadcom is based in Singapore, the prospect of China, which loomed over the deal, was enough to get the White House to block the hostile takeover. American Qualcomm is in a heated race with overseas rivals, including Huawei, to build next-generation wireless technologies, and the US is warned about its strategic interests.

FINSUM: The US is right to worry about this, and we think blocking the deal was a great move. China runs its companies like China Inc., which puts the US at a bit of a structural disadvantage (because our firms don’t share as much info). Therefore, Washington needs to be very careful.