(New York)

With the Fed coming in less dovish than expected this week, there is suddenly much more anxiety in the market. Without a clear direction on rates, and with lingering worries about the economy, the outlook for stocks and bonds is not clear. And as we all know, markets hate uncertainty. Accordingly, the search for the best recession-proof stocks continues, and we have a new proposal today: fast food stocks. As consumer spending falls in a recession, bargain-providing companies, like fast food, often do well. The sector also provides healthy dividends. Take a look at the usual suspects: McDonalds, Wendy’s, and Chipotle, and some you may not have thought of, like Cracker Barrel and Restaurant Brands International.

FINSUM: The “Dollar menu” suddenly becomes very attractive to the American consumer when times start getting tough. These stocks seem a good bet, especially because they have solid dividends, which should provide some protection in case a downturn doesn’t happen.

(San Francisco)

Just before the launch of the new suite of iPhones and other Apple products last week, things were looking bleak for the company. There was remarkably little pre-launch excitement and it seemed like this was going to be a rather boring round of updates for the iPhone. However, initial sales momentum is looking strong and could bode well for the company. There are also some one-off factors that could make Apple’s stock pop. According to Evercore, “We think there is inherent upside to Sept-qtr EPS given AAPL isn’t staggering their launches but announcing all the three products simultaneously … This we think will have a positive impact to revenues and EPS in the sept-qtr, though depending on the reception of these products it may be more of a pulling in of revenues from Dec-qtr”.

FINSUM: The iPhone 11 is a little more differentiated than everyone thought, and it seems to have sparked more interest than expected. This may be a less gloomy replacement cycle than expected.

(New York)

It has been a decade in the making, but it finally, unceremoniously, happened. The AUM in passive investment vehicles, like ETFs, has finally overtaken that in actively managed ones, like mutual funds. As of August 31, money in passive funds totaled $4.27 tn, just a touch higher than the $4.25 tn in actively-managed funds. In a good summary of the overall change in landscape, the Wall Street Journal says “That shift lowered the price of investing for individuals, reduced the influence of stock pickers and turned a handful of Wall Street outsiders into the biggest power brokers in the industry”.

FINSUM: Every advisor reading this column knows exactly why this happened, but it is nonetheless a landmark moment. It is also perhaps a warning sign—which side is driving the market?

(Washington)

It feels like a complete repeat of the DOL’s fiduciary rule. With less than a year to go until implementation (June 2020), the SEC’s new Regulation Best Interest has just entered legal limbo. Perhaps even more worrying than the recent lawsuit from seven states is the fact that leading industry figure Michael Kitces’ firm, XY Planning Network, has just sued the SEC in New York to help block the rule. Kitces is trying to build on the FPA’s legacy of defeating regulators, such as it did in 2005 with the “Merrill Lynch rule”. It is highly unclear what the ultimate outcome of these suits might be, which means brokerages are having trouble committing resources to comply with them.

FINSUM: The chances that this rule gets implemented in its current form seem small, which means it that it is unwise to invest too much into compliance at this point. Everyone still has a bad taste from the money spent complying with the defunct DOL fiduciary rule.

(New York)

For some reason, there is a great deal of glee about the return of value stocks this month. Even though we are only on the 17th day of September, seemingly ever research department on Wall Street is ready to proclaim that value stocks are back. BAML fits the bill perfectly, saying that value stocks are like a tightly wound spring that is finally uncoiling. In their defense, value stocks have outperformed growth stocks by 9 percentage points this month, the biggest divergence since 2010. Morgan Stanley also notes that there is currently “a massive rotation away from growth-style factors toward value-style”.

FINSUM: It has been a great start to the autumn for value stocks, but they have been in a funk so long that it is hard to believe they have suddenly shed their shackles.

(New York)

If you have been investing in REITs over the last few years, one of the key driving mantras has been the idea that one should move away from brick and mortar-oriented retail REITs and toward those that are more ecommerce-focused. In other words, buy REITs focused on warehouses, not those on malls. However, that arithmetic might be changing, as the big boom in warehousing is now facing headwinds because of the trade war. Recently was the first time in years that “the market didn’t lease to its full potential”, said a trade group in the space. The sector is “uniquely exposed to trade activity and manufacturing activity, which are very much impacted by the tariffs”.

FINSUM: To us this seems more likely to prove a short-term headwind than a long-term issue given the driving force behind warehouse growth is not actually tied to any trade policy, but a broader change in consumption patterns.

(New York)

RIAs have been growing at breakneck speed for years. Their growth rates are pretty much the envy of everyone else in finance. But to be honest, they may in fact be growing too fast. Take for instance the case of Creative Planning, a Kansas-based RIA that has tripled its client assets to $42 bn since 2016. Alongside the tremendous growth they have also seen trouble, such as an SEC fine for improper radio advertising and another less infraction. The bigger problem for RIAs is that their own internal systems for control, compliance, and governance may be quickly overwhelmed by the growth they are seeing.

FINSUM: RIAs who are growing organically are having trouble keeping up, but the ones growing through acquisition might have even more trouble, especially with keeping costs manageable considering all the overlap.

(Houston)

Oil took a phenomenal turn lower this week as news came out that half of Saudi Arabia’s oil production had been taken out via drone strikes. Yemeni’s took credit, but many suspect it actually came at the hands of Iran. Oil moved in a big way, up 20% at one point, representing the biggest percentage move in three decades. The drone strike is hugely consequential, as it removed 5% of the world’s daily oil supply. Airlines stocks were hit badly on the news, and Amazon may be the next big victim as higher oil prices mean higher shipping costs.

FINSUM: This big change is going to filter through markets in different ways, but the threat to Amazon seems real and very meaningful.

(New York)

Treasury bonds and their associated funds just had one of the worst periods on record. Specifically, they had their worst week since Trump was elected. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF fell 6.2% in a week, the sharpest drop since bond markets panicked on Trump’s surprise election. What is odd about the big drop is that the stock market remained relatively muted throughout. Usually, big losses in Treasuries come when there is a big risk-on rally in stock markets.

FINSUM: There has been a huge rally in bonds, and in the last week, a lot of the pessimism has faded from markets as economic data is relatively stable and trade war fears are ebbing. Accordingly, this could be the start of a real rout.

(New York)

Investors may be a little hazy on how forthcoming Fed rate cuts might affect stocks. One kind of assumes they will be positive, but then again, rate cuts mean the economy is worsening, so the picture becomes a little hazy. Well, a pair of top research analysts have just weighed in on the question and say the market’s reaction is likely to be positive. The year after a second rate cut stocks generally rise strongly, with the Dow up an average of about 20% in the next one year. However, this only holds if it is not too late to hold off a recession. That said, the gains from a second cut have often been immediate, “Perhaps because the second cut demonstrates the Fed’s commitment, or perhaps because the liquidity from the first cut had begun to work through the system, the gains have been immediate, with an average jump of 9.7% three months after the second cut”, say analysts at Ned Davis Research.

FINSUM: As we have said recently, we think the market is re-entering a post-Crisis goldilocks phase consisting of an accommodative Fed and a not-too-weak economy, the combination of which is very supportive of asset prices.