(New York)

One of the most eye-opening aspects of the pandemic’s impact on the economy has been in housing. The housing market has been on fire since Spring, with a gigantic boom in suburban home sales. The big question is whether this is the start of a sustained trend or a more temporary one. Most analysts think it was just a short-term move. Overall mortgage applications have flattened in recent months at the same time as listings have been rising, showing that supply and demand are changing. Additionally, there is a divergence in the type of demand. Demand for high end homes is stronger, but for cheaper housing it is much weaker.

FINSUM: The pandemic has affected those at the lower end of the socio-economic latter more strongly than those at the top, and combined with how the virus itself has incented social isolation, it is no wonder suburban housing has boomed. That said, it seems temporary almost by definition.

(New York)

The election couldn’t really be more stressful. Investors are anxious not only on the investment front, but on the personal front as well. With that in mind, here are five stocks that should do well no matter who ends up in the White House: Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Newmont (NEM), SBA Communications (SBAC), Roper Technologies (ROP), and Carlisle (CSL). Two things that seem likely to do well no matter who wins the election are companies which provide COVID tests and gold. COVID testing is an obvious one—there needs to be more COVID tests available, and faster/better quality tests. Abbott Laboratories has a $5 test that gets results in 15 min and are connected to a mobile app. Gold seems equally likely to do well as inflation concerns are rising alongside the weakening Dollar, growing US debt issuance, and slumping oil prices.

FINSUM: We think ETFs covering large sections of companies who will be in COVID testing are a good buy. Gold seems like a smart bet too given the likely growing US debt and weaker Dollar.

(Chicago)

Small caps are looking strong, and seem likely to outperform large caps over the next year. Small caps have seen two decidedly positive trends over the last month—an outperformance relative to the S&P 500, and increasing breadth. From a technical perspective, those are both encouraging. On the fundamental front, small caps are starting to follow a well-trodden path to success. Historically, every period since 1990 in which the Russell 2000 has outperformed the S&P 500, spreads have been widening. Bond watchers will have noticed that Treasuries have risen 28-40 bp recently across different maturities. Since that rise in yields seems likely to continue because of the growing debt needs of the US government, small caps may be in for a good run.

FINSUM: We really like this logic. Small caps tend to have a higher beta to GDP, so rising yields (hopefully indicating a better economic environment) should create additional spread widening, and thus be positive and create some continued outperformance.

(San Francisco)

The anti-trust probe into Google elicited little more than a shrug from markets. Investors seem to think this just Washington saber-rattling. However, what is not well understood is that the probe is not just a risk for Google, but a major one for Apple. Apple is intimately connected to the case the DOJ is trying to form. In particular, Google pays Apple billions of Dollars a year to be the default search engine on iPhone, a fact which the DOJ has centered its case on. That money flows into Apple’s services unit, which has been its biggest growth driver in recent years. According to an analyst from Bernstein “There’s a risk, if you play it out, that there actually could be more financial impact to Apple than there is for Google”.

FINSUM: The market seems to have fundamentally misunderstood the risk here. Google got the headlines, but Apple potentially has even bigger risk.

(New York)

A top Wall Street research team at BTIG has just said that 2021 is going to be a strong year for markets. They view the current volatility in equities as a good buying opportunity. In either a Trump or Biden win, the economy is probably going to receive additional COVID stimulus, as well as further spending, such as an infrastructure bill. Investors are so focused on the risks associated with the election that they have lost sight of the fact that either outcome will likely be positive for the economy and markets.

FINSUM: We tend to agree with this view, even though it is simplistic. In either outcome, both sides of the aisle will probably be served by being more collaborative than at present, so more economic stimulus is coming.

(Washington)

Polls have Biden well ahead of President Trump at the moment. In fact, some pollsters say that Biden is further ahead leading up to election day than any candidate in the last 20 years. Markets have somewhat followed this and are clearly anticipating a Biden victory. That said, there is almost nobody who doesn’t think the race will be very close. So, how to play it if Trump surprises the markets and wins? Three sectors seem like they would benefit most strongly: traditional energy companies, defense companies, and large-cap banks. Trump’s light-touch regulatory approach would help energy companies and large banks, while defense spending would probably continue to rise under Trump.

FINSUM: Most agree that if Trump surprises, the market is not going to shoot higher like it did in 2016, primarily because there is not a big proposed tax cut.

(San Francisco)

There are rising fears about the potential over-valuation of big tech megacaps. While they have risen very strongly this year, their P/E ratios are not the only worry. Regulations are also weighing on investors’ minds, especially after the announcement of the anti-trust probe by the DOJ into Google. That has not stopped the stocks from rallying, however. Most investors are betting that the government’s numerous overtures about anti-trust moves (which have come from both sides of the aisle) are merely saber-rattling.

FINSUM: As it concerns large cap value versus big tech stocks, the answer is simple—it seems like time to buy both. Big tech may keep rising, but there is enough fear to keep other large cap stocks rising as we enter a prolonged recovery, as they have been for several weeks.

(New York)

Dividends have had a tough year. Because of the pandemic, many companies have had to cut their dividends in the face of losses or declining profitability. Even some who have maintained or raised dividends cannot really afford to do so. Therefore stable, rising dividends with healthy underlying companies are very prized right now. Here are some good names to look at: Whirlpool, Avery Dennison, American Electric Power, and Crown Castle International. All four have recently raised their dividends on the back of robust business. Whirlpool, a major appliance manufacturer seems to be riding the home improvement wave, while Avery Dennison, which makes packaging, is likely benefitting from ecommerce gains. The others (a utility and a cell tower company) have inherently durable businesses.

FINSUM: Cell towers, utilities, and packaging materials seem like very strong areas even if the pandemic gets worse this winter, and there is almost zero rate risk at present.

(New York)

A new study from Cerulli Associates has found that wirehouses are performing very well in one regard—advisor productivity. The average wirehouse advisor has $175m in AUM, almost double the industry average of $77.9m. Even more amazingly, wirehouse productivity has risen from an average of $148m at the end of 2018 (to $175m at the end of 2019). However, wirehouses are still shedding many advisors to RIAs and IBDs. Cerulli identified two key reasons why. The first is as old as the industry itself—compensation. According to Cerulli, wirehouse advisors are growing increasingly tired of “complicated and sporadically changing compensation grids”. Additionally, support staff is an area where advisors are frustrated, reporting a lack of support staff as an issue at a far higher rates than at other BDs and RIAs.

FINSUM: Wirehouse advisors currently enjoy two advantages—brand strength and scalable firm-wide technologies. Neither is enough to stem the current outflows of advisors, and the technology aspect is quickly being eroded by improving tech stacks for independent advisors.

(Washington)

Markets and polls are favoring Joe Biden to win the presidency, and markets think there are increasing odds that a blue sweep could occur. So if Democrats take over, what does the regulatory environment look like in wealth management? According to legal and policy experts there are a number of key changes. One big high-level difference between Trump and Biden is that Trump has always favored a principals-based approach to regulation in an effort to lower the compliance burden on companies. Biden would adopt a more rules-based approach with stricter enforcement. Here are five key items that would likely change under a new administration: restarting the debate on Reg BI (i.e. trying to get rid of it or modify it), move towards a rules-based approach in many areas, revive the CFPB, create a public credit reporting agency within the CFPB, and replace SEC commissioner Jay Clayton.

FINSUM: All of this makes perfect sense with what Democrats are signaling. We have another key item to add to the list—killing the new DOL proposal and replacing it with a more robust fiduciary standard either through the SEC or DOL.