(New York)

There has been a lot of speculation over the last month about whether the market is in a bubble. The reason for this are numerous: the huge run up in large cap growth stocks, the meme stock frenzy and beyond. However, the answer to whether the market is in a bubble can be found in a recent study and paper by Harvard. Researchers from the university outlined what bubbles really are, and clearly show that by historical standards there is only one sector of the market currently in a bubble: the S&P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals index, which does include Apple. However, no other sectors, nor the S&P 500 itself could be considered to be in a bubble. In fact, it is quite rare for the market as a whole to be in a bubble. Rather, market bubbles are usually constrained to a small handful of sectors. This could be seen in what is considered to be one of the biggest of all time—the Dotcom bubble. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, tech stocks surged to extraordinary valuations, while many sectors, like value stocks, lagged. When the bubble burst, many sectors actually benefitted (like value stocks).

FINSUM: This history is quite useful for context, but as our readers know, we feel each market cycle is unique and thus historical insight can only take you so far. In this instance, we think it is important to take into consideration that bonds are yielding very little, meaning there is no good alternative to equities. We believe this situation—which is obviously created/supported by the Fed and government—will help continue to lift equities.

(New York)

Goldman Sachs is entering the ESG market as it plans to sell bonds to finance greener projects this week. This is part of the firm's broader attempts to provide funds to socially conscious investments. In fact GS plans to issue $750 billion in credit by 2030 to this trending area of finance. CEO of Golman Sachs Bank Carey Halio said to expect a steady stream of issuance in ESG, but the size of these initiatives will grow slowly over time. Goldman is just the latest to jump into this segment of the market. Investors may also have the opportunity to invest in alternative currencies in the future as Goldman has indicated a similar rollout could happen in the euro area. GS is just the latest of financial firms moving into the growing ESG arena. Bank of America, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley helped contribute the $118 billion growth in ESG last year.

FINSUM: Financial firms involvement in ESG will only continue as many of these companies will find helpful policies with the new administration.

(Washington)

The SEC is about to crackdown on dually-registered advisors. The regulator seems to be upset with how some firms represent themselves and their services to clients. Because of Reg BI, firms are now required to explain their business model in Form CRS. According to industry lawyers like Issa Hanna of Eversheds Sutherland, this made “distinguishing between broker-dealer and advisor services" a “hot regulatory topic”. According to Hanna, “There's an interest in the regulatory community in ensuring that dual registrants are properly distinguishing how they describe their broker-dealer advisor services and not confusing retail customers about the service delivery models and which standards of conduct, etc., apply to the types of services they're providing”. Firms need to set up good firewalls between their businesses so that if they get investigated, they have a defensible position.

FINSUM: This feels like just one of many areas the SEC is going to start to crack down on under the Biden administration.

(New York)

Most people don’t think about annuities much when rates tumble, but those who are in the market for them sure see a difference. For example, when rates plunged at the start of the pandemic many annuities providers had to significantly scale back the payouts they were offering. Since annuities payouts are highly dependent on rates, insurers need to adjust their offers as yields move. With that in mind, if you are thinking about annuities, it might be a good time to buy. For example, Prudential just announced it was eliminating all its variable annuities with guaranteed income benefits because of super-low rates and volatility. Other major insurers are likely to follow suit as the market environment makes offering these products difficult.

FINSUM: Despite the fact that yields are rising, it is starting to feel like annuities providers are throwing in the towel on some products because of the ultra-low income they can provide and the potential volatility in yields.

(New York)

Here is a confusing idea: workers are headed back to the office after a year away, but this is exactly the time to stay away from office REITs. One line of reasoning is that buying office REITs now, while prices are depressed, means there will be plenty of upside. However, the issue is that many companies are planning on keeping workers remote indefinitely, as remote work has gone much better than expected, according to many surveys. Office REIT bulls admit that may be the case, but counter than because of the pandemic, employers will want more square footage of office space to allow for more space between workers, helping offset the loss of total workers in the office. Critics say vaccines are working well so extra space will not be needed.

FINSUM: Buying into office REITs now is highly risky strategy, but one that could have major upside if the office market returns strongly.

(New York)

The market has been doing great. So great in fact, that many are nervous about a swift correction. Despite this, the market continues to push for new all-time highs each week. Credit Suisse weighed in on the market in a big way this week. To be clear, the bank is not exactly bearish on the market. Their overall position is “We have remained overweight equities on the back of highly supportive policy, a high ERP [equity risk premium], the start of a bond-for-equity switch and huge excess liquidity, while tactical indicators are not yet sending a sell signal”. That said, the bank warned that there was one very “high” risk to the market: the Fed. Credit Suisse thinks there is a good chance that the Fed suddenly gets less dovish in the second half of the year after some good growth in 1H. This would be a dramatic turn for investors and could risk a sharp reversal.

FINSUM: We have to agree with this risk. The huge stimulus and excess liquidity which are flooding the market are major tailwinds, so if they reversed, it would be a shock. The whole set up reminds of us what occurred in Q4 2018.

(New York)

A combination of factors have thrust annuities into the spotlight recently. These include super low interest rates, market volatility, and a major demographic trend of retirees. With that in mind, instead of talking about annuities’ benefits, we thought it would be worth some time to focus on their downsides. Given the audience of this article (advisors), we will leave out some of the ways annuities have been mis-sold and focus on the underlying products. In terms of their core drawbacks, there are essentially three: limited upside, surrender fees, and fixed payments. Limited upside should be fairly obvious, but most annuities limit the potential upside buyers can earn in exchange for principal protection and/or fixed payments. Surrender fees are another issue, as buyers can be hit with 7-10% “surrender” fees if they try to get out of the contract and receive their principal back. And finally, fixed payments lose value quickly, especially over a long-time horizon, because of inflation.

FINSUM: Annuities are as useful as the client you are selling them to. They definitely have a role in a portfolio, but their risks and benefits need to be well understood—which has not always been the case! One key issue is that many times the same reason people need annuities—retirement cash flow security—means they are at risk of exercising one of annuities biggest downside: surrender fees.

(New York)

Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) or “blank check companies” soared to notoriety in 2020. Though not a new financial instrument, they raised around $80bn from 237 deals in 2020, which is more capital than in the last decade combined.  BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has even suggested that SPACs could come to replace the traditional IPO process.

So what can we expect from SPACs in the coming year and how can investors maximize gains in this space? Market conditions and the macroeconomic level both suggest an environment that will continue to support SPAC popularity. Low interest rates make SPACs a low opportunity-cost option. Combined with the downside protection of the cash being stored in treasury bills until a target company is identified, and the flexibility they offer in the option to pull out before the merger, they will remain a reasonable choice for those looking to capitalize on a post-Covid recovery and high equity valuations. 

SPAC popularity has been propelled by the involvement of credible, experienced backers (Michael Klein, Bill Ackman etc.), something which seems unlikely to fade in the near future. Chamath Palihapitiya, for example, has formed 6 SPACs (A to E) ranging in value from $350m to $1bn, and has indicated his intention to complete the alphabet! According to BTIG there are 210 SPACs currently searching for an appropriate target company, with time limits of 18-24 months.^[1] And Goldman Sachs have suggested that more than $300bn worth of SPAC stock could be issued over the next two years.^[2]

SPACs are democratizing the traditional IPO process, giving financial advisors and individual retail investors access to an IPO private equity style of investing which had previously only been available to large institutions. But while the momentum continues, it’s not easy to pick the winners. Not all of the 2020 completed SPAC deals saw the strong growth of Virgin Galactic (up 73%[3]) or Draft Kings (up over 400%[4]) after their mergers. This is where a SPAC ETF offers exposure to this growing space, while mitigating the risk of backing one specific deal.

Defiance ETFs recently launched SPAK, the first SPAC ETF, which tracks a rules-based, weighted index of SPACs both in the pre-merger “blank check” stage (40% of the index) and for two years following the merger (60% of the index).  SPAK thereby seeks to give investors diversified access to the whole flow of the SPAC IPO process, including the gains which can accompany and emanate from a successful merger. SPAK groups the most liquid, compelling and innovative SPAC and SPAC-originating companies, but potentially mitigates risk of overexposure to any one deal – no security in the index exceeds a relative value of 12%, and no more than 45% of the index is comprised of stocks that each represent over 5%. The index is passively managed, which explains its expense ratio (0.45%), while its constituents are reviewed monthly to ensure that the ETF captures the potential dynamism of the SPAC space.

The Funds’ investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. The prospectus contains this and other important information about the investment company. Please read it carefully before investing. A hard copy of the prospectus can be requested by calling 833.333.9383 or going to www.defianceetfs.com .

Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible. The Fund invests in companies that have recently completed an IPO or are derived from a SPAC. These companies may be unseasoned and lack a trading history, a track record of reporting to investors, and widely available research coverage. IPOs are thus often subject to extreme price volatility and speculative trading. These stocks may have above-average price appreciation in connection with the IPO prior to inclusion in the Index. The price of stocks included in the Index may not continue to appreciate and the performance of these stocks may not replicate the performance exhibited in the past. In addition, IPOs may share similar illiquidity risks of private equity and venture capital. The Fund is new with a limited operating history.

Defiance ETFs are distributed by Foreside Fund Services, LLC.

n.b. This content was composed and paid-for by Defiance ETFs and is not FINSUM editorial.

[1] “2020 Has Been the Year of SPAC IPOs: Here Are the Prominent 4,” Sanghamitra Saha, December 28, 2020.

[2] “Goldman Strategists Say SPACs May Spur $300 Billion M&A Activity,” Joanna Ossinger, December 14, 2020.

[3] “Is Virgin Galactic a Buy After a New Space Stock ETF was announced?” Manisha Chatterjee, Jan 25, 2021.

[4] “DraftKings, Skillz SPAC Team Launch $1.5 Billion Spinning Eagle: What Investors Should Know,” Chris Katje, December 28, 2020.

(New York)

According to both Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, last week’s retail-driven chaos was nothing…Read the full story here on our partner Magnifi’s site.

(New York)

If you were to design a tailwind for the robotics sector, what would it look like. Perhaps a pandemic…Read the full story here on our partner Magnifi’s site.