(Chicago)

This infrastructure package is a big deal in many ways. Not only has it been—and will it be—a major market-mover, but the deal is also expansive and intricate in scope. For example, did you know that $100 bn has been specifically earmarked for increasing internet connectivity/infrastructure, which Biden refers to as the new electricity. As one can imagine, this will creative strong returns for firms that specialize in the space. Accordingly, take a look at two stocks: Applied Materials (Nasdaq: AMAT), and American Tower Corporation (REIT) (NYSE: AMT). AMT is a chipmaker and the forthcoming expansion of internet connectivity is seen as a big driver for the chips they make. American Tower is a major provider of 5G broadband, which will be heavily supported the proposed infrastructure package.

FINSUM: If and when it passes, this package is going to be a huge market driver for years to come. These stocks seem like a no-brainer.

(Silicon Valley)

Those with a lot of money in tech stocks may be starting to breathe a sigh of relief. After a rough period to start the year. The last few weeks has been quite positive for tech, so the worst may be behind us, right? The answer is that it may not be, according to some analysts. There are two huge trends (and one macro factor) that look likely to weigh on the sector for the next year. Firstly, three of the very largest stocks—Facebook, Apple, and Google, have gotten to the point in size where their growth is going to start inevitably slowing, which means the narrative around them will change. Additionally, the success of the vaccine rollout is increasingly, which means a reversal to pre-COVID norms seems likely. Tech stocks are also quite rate sensitive, which gives them a lot of “Fed risk”.

FINSUM: While it is hard to argue with the interest rate risk, we cannot get on board with the other two narratives. Everyone knows FAANG stocks are huge, the growth story is no secret. More generally though, we just don’t buy into the narrative that these stocks will suffer from the “reopening”. Consumer habits in many areas (e.g. grocery shopping and increased food delivery) have changed and that will continue to allow big tech stocks to grab market share and grow. Just ask your grown children and friends how they feel about going back to the grocery store….

(New York)

You probably have not even registered it, but food prices have risen sharply since late last year. One big reason why this is going mostly unnoticed is that economists, and thus the media, like to report inflation with food and energy stripped out. According to Jefferies, “Almost unnoticed, broad food and agricultural prices have climbed vertically”. So the question is who will benefit, and luckily that is quite clear. Firstly, fertilizer companies tend to do well when food prices are high and are uncorrelated to other asset classes. And secondly, agricultural machinery is a big winner. The sector is already experiencing exceptional supply tightness, which is bullish for pricing. According to Barron’s “large tractor prices up roughly 20% year-over-year and small tractors up about 50%, on the back of significantly tighter inventories”.

FINSUM: Deere and AgCo seem like quite good buys given this backdrop.

(Washington)

One of Biden’s most important campaign promises was that he would not raise taxes on the middle class…see the full story on our partner Magnifi’s site

(New York)

Wells Fargo’s head of real asset strategy John LaForge says gold could hit…see the full story on our partner Magnifi’s site

(Shanghai)

Chinese technology and financial regulation have been on the rise. And big tech companies such as…see the full story on our partner Magnifi’s site

(Washington)

It is not even close to approved yet, but the Biden infrastructure deal has been making serious waves. The implications of the deal are large and would send trillions of government dollars flowing into the private sector. With that in mind, here are four stocks that look like big winners from the package: Eaton Corporation (ETN), Jacobs Engineering Group (J), Herc Holdings (HRI), Mastec (MTZ). Three of these companies (other than HRI) are engineering/construction oriented, which makes sense. Herc Holdings is a rental company that leases vehicles (yes, the Hertz that went bankrupt last year).

FINSUM: Herc is interesting to us because they rent construction and earth-moving equipment. This injection of government dollars would flow through to them and provide a nice hedge against the headwind of the pandemic, which has slowed down retail car rental.

(New York)

Data from 2020 is in and it is clear: annuities are increasingly popular among advisors, and we mean that in the strictest sense of “advisors”. Annuities sales have not just grown with broker-dealers, but also with RIAs. For many years RIAs shunned annuities, but recently two major changes have made RIAs warm to them. Firstly, annuities compensation has become more aligned with RIA pay models, and secondly, with so many clients retiring in a period of high volatility, there is a greater need than ever before. According to David Lau, CEO of DPL Financial, “RIAs historically have used mostly investment-only variable annuities with the occasional single-premium immediate annuity mixed in, and that is because annuities until recently haven’t been built to fit into their business model. He continued “One of the things that’s misunderstood about annuities is that in a low-interest-rate environment, it’s something you may not want to consider … In today’s market with interest rates where they are, it is about 41% more expensive to fund retirement income using a bond portfolio than it is using an annuity.”

FINSUM: That last quote about the affordability of annuities is a really key point. Annuities can play an important role in a portfolio more cheaply than most instruments right now, and do so with less risk.

(New York)

Bonds are incredibly expensive right now, but despite this, they may keep going higher, says Goldman Sachs. The firm is specifically referring to high yield bonds, which are very pricey right now and have low spreads to Treasuries. For example, only 10% of high yield bonds currently trade with spreads above 5 percentage points above Treasuries, compared to 25% in November. This makes Goldman believe the easiest gains are already in the bag, but given that high yield bonds are sensitive to an improving economy and they have appreciated even while Treasuries have fallen, Goldman feels the asset class could be in for more appreciation.

FINSUM: This makes sense. It is also worth noting that historically speaking, high yield bonds have no correlation to the performance of Treasuries.

(New York)

Annuities have had a good 12 months and it is starting to seem like they are entering a golden age. Not only are the country’s demographics trending in favor of annuities, but the last year’s volatility and the recent rule change allowing annuities into 401(k)s are big tailwinds. Another big trend which helps is that since more and more companies are opting to offer 401(k) programs instead of DB plans, then people are ever more in need of guaranteed income. According to AIG, “It’s less about the vehicle. More plan sponsors and participants need to get comfortable with the creation of income … The only way to get guaranteed income is to annuitize retirement benefits. The question then is will annuities be offered in-plan or out-of-plan”.

FINSUM: The market and regulatory context are becoming better and better for utilizing annuities for clients. It might be time to think about these options if you aren’t already.