California saw its gas prices spike to $6 a gallon, but the Golden state might not be the only one feeling the pressure at the pump. JPMorgan’s global oil and commodities research head warned that there is a risk of national $6+ gasoline. The increase in prices is in no doubt a reflection of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, but also US inventories are at the lowest levels in over three years. States like Kansas, Oklahoma, and Georgia with extremely low gas prices have breached the $4 threshold and it could get worse. Inventories are especially bad on the East Coast where they are at decade lows. Other forecasters are predicting many American particularly those with access to public transit will drive less if gas prices continue to creep up and aren’t forecasting $6 prices.

Finsum: This is an opportunity to look to commodities but particularly oil & gas companies' debt as a fixed income option, these prices will make paying back relatively easy.

AllianceBernstein is moving forward with the development of two new ETF products and they are meeting the demands of the market. There has been a sharp uptick in active management particularly in the bond ETF segment in the post-pandemic environment. The predominant view is that managers are better suited at picking winners with macro-flare proving so effective. The two portfolios they are launching are coming in an ultra-short income offering which will have a combination of government and investment grade corporate debt. As well as a tax-aware short-duration ETF. There has also been a shift towards shorter duration bond funds as a response to a rise in interest rate risk.

Finsum: With the Fed stomping on the gas pedal, if inflation comes under control quickly longer duration debt could be under-priced.

Very few investment trends have caught on as rapidly as model portfolios which have seen widespread adoption, but this could be lowering asset flexibility. Model portfolios seek a variety of metrics for assets to be added to the fund. Assets may be excluded for categorical or qualifying reasons which can lead to a lack of adoption and lower returns. The selection bias in models leaves meat on the bone for investors and can keep them from getting exposure to products like covered calls or other investments.

Finsum: Model portfolios have their place, but they could create an inefficiency where some products are given their proper value. 

Financial companies are rushing to deliver low initial investment direct indexing products to investors, but is DI here to stay? The benefits of custom indexing are obvious: It gives ESG investors an opportunity to punish the greenwashers of their own volition, and optimizers a chance to gain tax alpha easily. However, this isn’t free; investors usually pay much higher fees than traditional ESG funds and the minimum investments are usually high. For the few funds without high initial investments, investors get very little if any flexibility in dropping assets from their portfolio. Now they aren’t an ‘active- wolf’ in sheep's clothing, but those are real drawbacks investors should consider.  In the long run, we will see a combination of lower fees with more accessibility as competitors enter the market, and direct indexing could be here to stay.  

Finsum: Direct indexing isn’t for everyone…for now, but as fees shrink, and minimums drop more investors should consider adding them to their portfolio. 

The market is seeing some of the highest volatility since the pandemic and before that, you have to go back to the taper tantrum, but how should investors respond? While the most obvious answer is to ‘buy the dip’, the question remains where. Investors should look to industries whose fundamentals haven’t shifted in the most recent months or are less susceptible to the ongoing volatility shifts. This value tilt means leaning towards financials and commodities. Moreover, investors should steer clear of those exactly susceptible to current volatility spikes. Technology and emerging markets are easy stay-aways because inflationary pressures are going to hurt growth stocks and supply constraints will bottle up developing economies for the foreseeable future.

Finsum: More advanced hedging strategies should be considered in equity markets given the volatility, but still tilt toward value.

State Street launched a new fund LQIG which started trading on May 12, an effort to give investors exposure to liquid bonds with high traceability. The market is rife with turmoil, and investors are looking to different fixed-income products to provide an inflation-beating yield and relatively liquid assets. The fund seeks exposure to 400 investment-grade corporate bonds denominated in dollars. These differ from most fixed-income funds which are designed to give broader market exposure that doesn’t prioritize traceability. The high traceability comes with lower bid-ask spreads as well as more transparency into their holding's real-time valuations.

Finsum: Investment-grade corporate debt is looking relatively more attractive with market volatility at such highs.

President Biden’s 2023 federal budget levy’s a new ultra-wealthy tax that would apply 20% total income tax on those with a net worth of more than $100 million. Notably in the deal, it opens the window to tax unrealized capital gains or any asset growth. The bill is expected to meet a brick wall in congress however as even moderate Dems will have a difficult time supporting it. Biden’s selling point is the expected $360 billion in payments toward the deficit in the next decade. However, the senate proposed a very similar bill last year that was shut down by congress.

Finsum: Taxing unrealized gains is a slippery slope, and hopefully would never trickle down to different wealth classes.

Annuities have been one of the hottest topics since the Secure Act 1.0, allowing them to be a part of retirement plans, and that could be ramping up. The House of Representatives has approved the Secure Act 2.0 with an overwhelming majority of 414-5. Provision 201 would allow the minimum requirements distribution age to be increased from 72 to 75. Another key part of the bill is the automatic enrollment in 401(k)s with a very high contribution percentage. Life insurers are ecstatic about the bill and many believe this will drastically increase the demand and supply of annuities.

Finsum: Most investors underate these small changes to legislation that really open the gates for investments and spur lots of interest.

Special purpose acquisition vehicles (Spacs) have been one of the go-to alternatives for high-income investors in the last year, but for Goldman Sachs that could be changing. The SEC is proposing reforms to Spacs in order to improve transparency and align with traditional investments. Goldman will pause their Spac offerings in response. GS was one of the largest underwriters for Spacs in 2021 and raised almost $16 billion. This isn’t expected to be an isolated event for GS, other Wall Street firms are expected to follow suit as regulation will make these less attractive ventures.

Finsum: Biden’s SEC has been a not-so-quiet regulator when it comes to alternatives where they are quickly expanding scope to come down on these sub-industries

The Fed had its largest hike in two decades, and the ECB has gone ultra-dovish. This has sent a huge influx of Euro area investors into U.S.-short-durations bond ETFs. Funds like the iShares 3-7yr UCITS ETF had over $600 million in inflows last week. Short-duration corporate debt was also favored by euro area investors. Overall the bond market had seen an exodus in the previous weeks but this confluence of factors has been enough to entice investors. While the Fed has made up its mind they have contributed to inflation, bank heads in Europe are mixed which will leave policy to be accommodative for the near term.

Finsum: The Fed could be over-reacting and Europe could be under-reacting to inflation, but if Europe doesn’t tighten they will find their bond market in a similar position to the US a couple of weeks ago.